Ingaba I-Stagflation Iyakwenzeka Ngoku?
Izizathu
I-stagflation iyenzeka xa urhulumente okanye amabhanki aphakathi akwandisa imali yokunikezelwa kwemali ngexesha elifanayo.
Inkohlakalo eqhelekileyo yilapho urhulumente eprinta imali. Iyakwenzeka kwakhona xa imigaqo-mali yebhanki ephakathi yenza i-credit. Zomibini zandisa imali. Oko kubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngelo xesha, ezinye iinkqubo zikhula ngokukhawuleza. Oko kwenzeka ukuba urhulumente ukwandisa irhafu. Iyakwenzeka kwakhona xa ibhanki ephakamileyo iphakamisa inzala. Bobabini banqanda iinkampani ukuba zivelise ngaphezulu. Xa kukho imigaqo-nkqubo yokwandisa kunye nokuchaseneka, kuya kunciphisa ukukhula xa kudala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Yiyo yintambo.
I-Stagflation e-United States yenzeke ngee-1970. URhulumente wezepolisi usebenzise imali yakhe ukuze kukhuthazwe uqoqosho. Ngexesha elifanayo, lugqithise ukubonelela ngeenkonzo zokulawula amanani.
Ngo-2004, iipolisi zaseZimbabwe zenze ukuba i-stagflation. Urhulumente wanyathelisa imali eninzi yahamba ngaphaya kwe-stagflation kwaye yajika yaba yi- hyperinflation .
I-Stagflation kuma-1970
I-stagflation yafumana igama layo ngo- 1973-1975 .
Kwakukho iikota ezintlanu xa umkhiqizo ongezantsi wemveliso wawubi.
| Ukukhula kweGDP | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1973 | 1.2% | 4.6% | -2.2% | 3.8% |
| 1974 | -3.3% | 1.1% | -3.8% | -1.6% |
| 1975 | -4.7% | 3.1% | 6.8% | 5.5% |
Ukungasebenzi kwabangaphantsi kweepesenti ezingama-9 ngoMeyi 1975, emva kweenyanga ezimbini emva kokupheliswa kwemali.
Imithatho yempahla ephindwe kathathu ngo-1973, iphakama ukusuka kwi-3.4 ukuya kwi-9,6 ekhulwini. Yahlala phakathi kwama-10 ukuya ku-12 ekhulwini ukususela ngoFebruwari 1974 ukuya ku-Epreli 1975.
Ngokujonga isixa-mali sokunyuka kwamazwe ngonyaka , unokufumana imbali yenguqu yepesenti yokuguquka kwixabiso kwixesha lomjikelo.
Oku kwenzeka ntoni? Iingcali ezininzi zityhola i- oil embargo ka - 1973 . Yilapho i- OPEC yinquma i-oli ye-oli e-United States. Ixabiso liphindwe kabini, okubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwioli. Kodwa loo nto yodwa ayinelanga ngokwenza i-stagflation. Esikhundleni salokho, kwakudibene nomgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kunye nemali eyayidala.
Kwaqala ngokunciphisa umnotho ngo-1970. Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kwanyuka kuma-6.1 ekhulwini. UMongameli uRichard Nixon wayezama ukunyulwa kwakhona. Wayefuna ukukhulisa ukukhula ngaphandle kokubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Ngomhla ka-Agasti 15, 1971, wathengisa iinkqubo ezintathu zemali . Bamnyulela kwakhona. Baye bahlwayelwa imbewu ye-stagflation. Ividiyo yeentetho zeNixon ibonisa ukuvakaliswa kweenguqu ezinzulu zophuhliso lwezoqoqosho ezifana nesigqibo sokuphelisa inkqubo yezemali yamazwe ngamazwe eBretton Woods.
Okokuqala, uNixon wamisa i-90-day froze kuyo yonke imivuzo kunye namaxabiso. Wabeka iKhomishoni yeRhafu kunye neKhomishoni yeeNtlawulo ukuvuma nayiphi na inyuko emva kweentsuku ezingama-90. Ngokufanelekileyo, iya kulawula intengo de emva komkhankaso we-1972 we-president. Yileyo ndlela ayecwangcise ngayo ukulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Okwesibini, iNixon inikwe ixabiso leepesenti ezili-10 kwimpahla engeniswa ngaphandle. Uzimisele ukunciphisa umlinganiselo wezorhwebo kunye nokukhusela amashishini asekhaya. Kunoko, waphakamisa amaxabiso angeniso.
Okwesithathu, wasusa iUnited States kumgangatho wegolide . Okuye kwagcina ixabiso lentela libophelelwe kwisixa esicwangcisiweyo segolide ukususela kwisivumelwano se-Bretton Woods sika -1944. Uninzi amazwe ayavuma ukumbumba ixabiso leemali zabo kwixabiso legolide okanye i-dollar yase-US. Eye yajika i dollar ibe yimali yehlabathi .
Ingxaki yenzeke xa i- United Kingdom izama ukuhlawulela i-R3 billion zegolide. I-United States ayinayo igolide eninzi kwiindawo zayo zokugcina e Fort Fort. Ngoko uNixon wayeka ukukhulula iidola zegolide. Oku thumele ixabiso lentsimbi yexabiso elixabisekileyo kunye nexabiso le dollar yokunciphisa. Oku thumele ixabiso lokungeniswa ngaphezulu.
Ukufunda imbali yemigangatho yegolide kuya kukunceda uqonde ukuba kutheni i dollar yayisixhaswa ngegolide kwaye kutheni ngoku kungenjalo.
Le migaqo emibini yokugqibela iphakanyisiwe amaxabiso angeniso, okwenyusa ukukhula. Emva koko ukukhula kwancipha ngakumbi kuba iinkampani zase-US azikwazanga ukuphakamisa amaxabiso ukuba ahlale enenzuzo. Ekubeni abazange bakwazi ukunciphisa umvuzo, nokuba yindlela efanelekileyo yokunciphisa iindleko kwakuwukuba ubeke abasebenzi. Ukunyuka kwengqesho. Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunciphisa ukufunwa kwabathengi kunye nokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho. Ngamanye amazwi, iinzame ezintathu zikaNixon zokukhulisa ukukhula nokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso zineempembelelo ezingafaniyo.
Imizamo ye-Federal Reserve yokulwa ne-stagflation yanda kakhulu. Ukususela ngo-1971 no-1978, kwaphakanyiswa izinga lokunyusa amaxabiso emali ukulwa nokunyuka kwemali, ngoko ke kunciphisa ukulwa nomnotho. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo "wokuyeka ukuhamba" umgaqo-mali wezinto ezididekileyo. Baye bagcina amaxabiso aphakamileyo, nangona amaxabiso aphantsi kweThasi. Eye yathumela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuya kuma-13.3 ekhulwini ngo-1979.
USihlalo weSihlalo we-Federal Reserve uPaul Volcker wagqiba ukuguqulwa kwemali ngokuphakamisa izinga ukuya kuma-20 ekhulwini ngo-1980. Kodwa kwakukho indleko enkulu. Yadala u-1980-82.
Kutheni u-Stagflation (mhlawumbi) Awuyi kuphinda uqhubeke
Ngo-2011, abantu baxhalabele nge-stagflation kwakhona. Baxhalabile ukuba imigaqo-mali ye-Fed eyandisiweyo , esetyenziselwa ukuhlangula uqoqosho kwiinkathazo zemali ka - 2008 , iya kubangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ngexesha elifanayo, iCongress yamkela ipolisi yomgaqo-mali. Kwakuquka iphakheji yezoqoqosho kunye namanqaku okurekhoda. Okwangoku, uqoqosho lwalukhula kuphela 1 ukuya ku-2 ekhulwini. Abantu baxwayisa ngomngcipheko we-stagflation xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuqhubeka kwaye uqoqosho aluzange luphucule.
Ukwanda kwenani lokukhutshwa kwehlabathi jikelele kukuthintela ukungcola, umngcipheko omkhulu kakhulu. I-Fed ayiyi kuvumela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuba kudlule ngaphaya kwexabiso layo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-2 ekhulwini kwizinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso . Ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuphakame ngaphezu kwelo njongo, i-Fed iya kugqithisa ikhosi kwaye ifake umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali oqinileyo .
Iimeko ezingavamile ezenza i-stagflation kwiminyaka ye-1970 ayinakwenzeka ukuba iphinde ibuye. Okokuqala, i-Fed ayisekho inkqubo yokuyeka ukuhamba kwemigaqo-mali. Esikhundleni saloo nto, senze isiqhelo esifanelekileyo. Okwesibini, ukususwa kwedoli ukusuka kumgangatho wegolide wawusisigxina esisodwa. Okwesithathu, ukulawulwa kwamanani omvuzo owamisela ukubonelela akunakuqwalaselwa namhlanje.