Ziyingozi Kangakanani Imveliso? Ixesha elidlulileyo, elikhoyo, elizayo
Intlawulo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso e- US ngonyaka kukuba ipesenti iyatshintsha kumaxabiso ukusuka kunyaka omnye kuya kutsho, okanye kunyaka-nyaka . Iguquka kwisigaba ngasinye somjikelezo wezoshishino . Isigaba sokuqala ukwanda . Yilapho ukukhula kukuhle, kunye neephesenti ezi-2 ezempilo. Njengoko uqoqosho lukhula ngaphezu kweepesenti ezingama-3, ludala ibhola. Isigaba sesibini yiyona nto . Leyo yinyanga xa ukunyuka kwexesha kuphelile kwaye ukuqhekeka kuqala.
Isigaba sesithathu yintlukwano, yinto yokunciphisa. Ixabiso lemali liwela ngaphantsi kwama-2.0 ekhulwini. Kungekudala, ukuxhatshazwa kuyingozi. Isigaba sesine sisitya . Yile nyanga xa ukuqhaqha kuphela kwaye ukwandiswa kuqala.
Ixabiso lemali liphendula kwakhona kumgaqo-mali owenziwe ngu- Federal Reserve . I-Fed ijolise kwizinga eliphezulu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngenxa yokuba alibandakanyi i-gesi enokuzithengisa kunye namaxabiso okutya. I-Fed ibeka isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso epesenti ezimbini. Ukuba umyinge ophezulu ukhuphuka kakhulu ngaphezu koko, i-Fed iya kwenza umgaqo-mali we-contractionary policy . Oku kukhulisa inzala , ukuvalwa kwemfuno kunye nokunyanzelisa amaxabiso angaphantsi.
Imbali ye-Inflation Rate and Forecast
Itheyibhile elingezantsi lifanisa izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nesantya semali esondliwe , isigaba somjikelo woshishino kunye neziganeko ezinkulu ezichaphazela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ukufumana okungakumbi malunga nokubikezela, khangela i- US Economic Outlook .
| Unyaka | Ixabiso lentengo ye- YOY | Inani leFund Funds | I-Cycle Business (Ukukhula kweGDP) | Iimpawu ezichaphazela imithwalo yemali |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 0.6% | N / A | Aug peak | Ukuhlaselwa kwemarike |
| 1930 | -6.4% | N / A | Uluhlu (-8.5%) | Smoot-Hawley |
| 1931 | -9.3% | N / A | Ulwahlulo (-6.4%) | I-Bowl Bowl |
| 1932 | -10.3% | N / A | Ulwahlulo (-12.9%) | IHoover yentlawulo |
| 1933 | 0.8% | N / A | Ulwahlulo lwaphela ngoMatshi. (-1.3%) | I-IDR entsha |
| 1934 | 1.5% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (10.8%) | Amatyala aseMelika aphakama |
| 1935 | 3.0% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.9%) | Ukhuseleko lasekuhlaleni |
| 1936 | 1.4% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (12.9%) | Irhafu ye-FDR |
| 1937 | 2.9% | N / A | Ukwanda kwandiswe ngoMeyi (5.1%) | Uxinzelelo luyaqala kwakhona |
| 1938 | -2.8% | N / A | Ulwahlulo lwaphela ngoJuni (-3.3%) | Ukuxinezeleka kwaphela |
| 1939 | 0.0% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.0%) | I-Dust Bowl iphelile |
| 1940 | 0.7% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.8%) | Ukhuseleko lwandisiwe |
| 1941 | 9.9% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (17.7%) | ipheli yehabha |
| 1942 | 9.0% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (18.9%) | Inkcitho yokukhusela kathathu |
| 1943 | 3.0% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (17.0%) | |
| 1944 | 2.3% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.0%) | Bretton-Woods |
| 1945 | 2.2% | N / A | Feb peak.Oct trough (-1.0%) | ITruman iphelile iWWII |
| 1946 | 18.1% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (-11.3%) | Uhlahlo lwabiwo mali |
| 1947 | 8.8% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (-1.1%) | I-Marshall Plan.I-Truman Doctrine. Imfazwe Yomlomo |
| 1948 | 3.0% | N / A | Ingqungquthela yoNove (4.1%) | |
| 1949 | -2.1% | N / A | Umgca we-Oct (-0.5%) | Deal Deal. NATO |
| - 1950 | 5.9% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.7%) | Imfazwe yaseKorea |
| 1951 | 6.0% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (8.1%) | |
| 1952 | 0.8% | N / A | Ukwandiswa (4.1%) | |
| 1953 | 0.7% | N / A | Julayi (4.7%) | I-Eisenhower iphelile iMfazwe yaseKorea |
| 1954 | -0.7% | 1.25% | Ngomhla we-May (-0.6%) | UDow ubuyele ephakamileyo ngo-1929 |
| 1955 | 0.4% | 2.50% | Ukwandiswa (7.1%) | |
| 1956 | 3.0% | 3.00% | Ukwandiswa (2.1%) | |
| 1957 | 2.9% | 3.00% | Aug peak (2.1%) | Ukubuyisela |
| 1958 | 1.8% | 2.50% | Ngomhla we-Aprili (-0.7%) | Ukuzibuyisela kuphelile |
| 1959 | 1.7% | 4.00% | Ukwandiswa (6.9%) | Amaxabiso aphakanyisiweyo |
| 1960 | 1.4% | 2.00% | Ngo-Apreli (2.6%) | Ukubuyisela |
| 1961 | 0.7% | 2.00% | UF Feb (2.6%) | Ukulahleka kwe-JFK yokuchitha imali kuphelile |
| 1962 | 1.3% | 3.00% | Ukwandiswa (6.1%) | |
| 1963 | 1.6% | 3.38% | Ukwandiswa (4.4%) | |
| 1964 | 1.0% | 3.75% | Ukwandiswa (5.8%) | I-LBJ's Medicare, Medicaid |
| 1965 | 1.9% | 4.25% | Ukwandiswa (6.5%) | |
| 1966 | 3.5% | 5.50% | Ukwandiswa (6.6%) | IMfazwe yaseVietnam |
| 1967 | 3.0% | 4.50% | Ukwandiswa (2.7%) | |
| 1968 | 4.7% | 6.00% | Ukwandiswa (4.9%) | Ukufika kweenyanga |
| 1969 | 6.2% | 9.00% | Ingqungquthela ye-Dec (3.1%) | U-Nixon wathatha isikhundla |
| 1970 | 5.6% | 5.00% | Umgudu weNova (0.2%) | Ukubuyisela |
| 1971 | 3.3% | 5.00% | Ukwandiswa (3.3%) | Ulawulo lwexabiso lomvuzo |
| 1972 | 3.4% | 5.75% | Ukwandiswa (5.2%) | Stagflation |
| 1973 | 8.7% | 11.00% | Ingqungquthela yeNew (5.6%) | Ukuphela komgangatho wegolide |
| 1974 | 12.3% | 8.00% | Uluhlu (-0.5%) | Watergate |
| 1975 | 6.9% | 6.50% | Ngomhla we-March (-0.2%) | Umgaqo-mali we-stop-gap. Amaxabiso aphakanyisiweyo aphakanyisiweyo okulwa nokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ke awanciphise ukuba alwe nemali. Amashishini adibeneyo agcina amaxabiso aphakamileyo. |
| 1976 | 4.9% | 4.75% | Ukwandiswa (5.4%) | |
| 1977 | 6.7% | 6.50% | Ukwandiswa (4.6%) | |
| 1978 | 9.0% | 10.00% | Ukwandiswa (5.6%) | |
| 1979 | 13.3% | 12.00% | Ukwandiswa (3.2%) | |
| 1980 | 12.5% | 18.00% | UJan ufikelele (0.2%) | Ukubuyisela |
| 1981 | 8.9% | 12.00% | Ingqolowa kaJulayi (2.6%) | Ukunqunyulwa kwentlawulo yeReagan |
| 1982 | 3.8% | 8.50% | Novemba (-1.9%) | Ukuzibuyisela kuphelile |
| 1983 | 3.8% | 9.25% | Ukwandiswa (4.6%) | Reagan yandisa imali yezempi |
| 1984 | 3.9% | 8.25% | Ukwandiswa (7.3%) | |
| 1985 | 3.8% | 7.75% | Ukwandiswa (4.2%) | |
| 1986 | 1.1% | 6.00% | Ukwandiswa (3.5%) | Ukunqunyulwa kweRhafu |
| 1987 | 4.4% | 6.75% | Ukwandiswa (3.5%) | NgoMvulo ngoMnyama |
| 1988 | 4.4% | 9.75% | Ukwandiswa (4.2%) | Amaxabiso aphakanyisiweyo |
| 1989 | 4.6% | 8.25% | Ukwandiswa (3.7%) | Inkathazo ye-S & L |
| 1990 | 6.1% | 7.00% | Ingqungquthela yoJula (1.9%) | Ukubuyisela |
| 1991 | 3.1% | 4.00% | Umjelo kaMar (-0.1%) | Ukunciphisa izinga lokunciphisa |
| 1992 | 2.9% | 3.00% | Ukwandiswa (3.6%) | NAFTA i qulunqwe |
| 1993 | 2.7% | 3.00% | Ukwandiswa (2.7%) | UMthetho oHloniphekileyo woLwabiwo-mali |
| 1994 | 2.7% | 5.50% | Ukwandiswa (4.0%) | |
| 1995 | 2.5% | 5.50% | Ukwandiswa (2.7%) | |
| 1996 | 3.3% | 5.25% | Ukwandiswa (3.8%) | Ukuhlaziywa kweentlalo |
| 1997 | 1.7% | 5.50% | Ukwandiswa (4.5%) | Ixabiso eliphakanyisiweyo eliphakamileyo |
| 1998 | 1.6% | 4.75% | Ukwandiswa (4.5%) | I-LTCM |
| 1999 | 2.7% | 5.50% | Ukwandiswa (4.7%) | I-Glass-Steagall isusiwe |
| 2000 | 3.4% | 6.50% | Ukwandiswa (4.1%) | Umbhobho weTech uqhubekile |
| 2001 | 1.6% | 1.75% | NgoMatshi. Nov pitgh. (1.0%) | I-Bush tax tax cut. 9/11 ukuhlaselwa |
| 2002 | 2.4% | 1.25% | Ukwandiswa (1.8%) | Imfazwe kwiSibetho |
| 2003 | 1.9% | 1.00% | Ukwandiswa (2.8%) | JGTRRA |
| 2004 | 3.3% | 2.25% | Ukwandiswa (3.8%) | |
| 2005 | 3.4% | 4.25% | Ukwandiswa (3.3%) | Katrina . Umthetho weBhanki |
| 2006 | 2.5% | 5.25% | Ukwandiswa (2.7%) | UBernanke ngu-Fed Chair |
| 2007 | 4.1% | 4.25% | Umphezulu wekota (1.8%) | Inkcitho yeBhanki |
| 2008 | 0.1% | 0% | Ulwahlulo (-.3%) | Inkathazo yezemali |
| 2009 | 2.7% | 0% | Umgudu weJun (2.8%) | ARRA |
| 2010 | 1.5% | 0% | Ukwandiswa (2.5%) | ACA . Dodd-Frank |
| 2011 | 3.0% | 0% | Ukwandiswa (1.6%) | Inkxalabo yokufakwa kwetyala |
| 2012 | 1.7% | 0% | Ukwandiswa (2.2%) | |
| 2013 | 1.5% | 0% | Ukwandiswa (1.7%) | Ukuvalwa kombuso . Ukulandelwa |
| 2014 | 0.8% | 0% | Ukwandiswa (2.4%) | QE iphela |
| 2015 | 0.7% | 0.25% | Ukwandiswa (2.6%) | Ukuchaswa kwixabiso leoli kunye negesi |
| 2016 | 2.1% | 0.75% | Ukwandiswa (1.6%) | |
| 2017 | 2.1% | 1.50% | Ixabiso lentengo lentengo ye-1.8%. Ixabiso langoku lihlaziywa qho ngenyanga. | |
| 2018 | 1.9% | 2.0% | Forecast. Imali engundoqo 1.9% | |
| 2019 | 2.0% | 2.5% | Forecast. Umlinganiselo ophezulu wama-2.0% | |
| 2020 | 2.0% | 3.0% | Forecast. Umlinganiselo ophezulu wama-2.0% | |
Izixhobo zoLuhlu
- BLS, Ixabiso leMali yeMali
- I-US Census Bureau, Ipesenteji yabemi abahlali abangasebenziyo 1929-1947 Qaphela: Oku kwahlula inani labantu abaneminyaka eli-14 nangaphezulu ngaphandle kwemisebenzi kwisixa esipheleleyo sabantu.
- I-BLS, Isingeniso seNgqesho 1948-2015 Qaphela: Oku kwahlula inani labangasebenzi abafuna umsebenzi ngokunyanisekileyo emsebenzini.
- Ireyithi ye-Fed Targeted Funds
- Inani elifanelekileyo leMali yeFund: iSt. Louis Federal Reserve (Isetyenziswe ukuqikelela isantya se-Fed esicwangcisiweyo ngaphambi kowe-1971.)
- Ukubuyisela Imbali
- Imbali yeGold Standard
- I-NBER, i-Business Cycle Dates
- I-BEA, iNgeniso kaZwelonke, kunye neeNkcukacha zeeNkcukacha zeMveliso: Itheyibhile 1.1.1. I-GDP Growth Rate
- I-Fed isebenzisa imodeli ekhompyutheni eyinkimbinkimbi ukudala iziganeko zayo. Kodwa iinguqu ezininzi zintshintsho phakathi kwezinto ezichaziweyo ukuba kunzima ukucacisa iminyaka emithathu. Into ebalulekileyo ukuyiqonda kukuba i-Fed ayicingi ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyakuba sisongelo esilungileyo kwikamva elizayo. (Umthombo: " Uhlaselo lwezoqoqosho lweState Reserve, " i-Federal Reserve, ngoJuni 14, 2017.)