Iingcali ziLungele ukuKhula
UMongameli uTumpom wathembisa ukwandisa ukukhula koqoqosho ukuya kuma-4 ekhulwini. Kukhawuleza kunokuba unempilo. Ukukhula kweso sihlandlo kubangela ukuxhamla ngokungazenzisiyo . Oko kudala i- boom ekhokelela ekuhlaseleni . Khangela oko kubangela ukuba utshintsho lomjikelezo wezoshishino .
Sibanzi
Ukukhula kwe-GDP e-US kuya kuphakama kwi-2.7 ekhulwini ngo-2018, iipesenti ezi-2.4 ngonyaka we-2019, kunye ne-2.0 ekhulwini ngo-2020. Ngokweziganeko zentsholongwane ezishicilelwe kwi- Federal Open Market Committee nganiso ngoMatshi 20, 2018 . nkqubo .
Izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi liza kuhlahlela kuma-3.8 ekhulwini ngo-2018, ama-3.6 ekhulwini ngo-2019 kunye ne-3.6 ekhulwini ngo-2020. Oku kungcono kune-Target ye-6.7 yeephesenti. Kodwa uSihlalo we- Federal Reserve uJanet Yellen uvume ukuba abasebenzi abaninzi banesithuba sithile kwaye banokukhetha umsebenzi wesikhathi esigcwele. Kwakhona, ukukhula kwamathuba emisebenzi kuninzi ekuthengiseni iindawo ezithengayo kunye neenkonzo zokutya.
Abanye abantu baye baphumelela emsebenzini kangangokuba abanakuze bakwazi ukubuyela kwimisebenzi ehlawulela phezulu ababeyisebenzisa. Oko kuthetha ukuba ukungasebenzi kwemisebenzi kuye kwanda. Ezi mpawu ziyingqayizivele kulo mlilo. Benza kwakhona izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi lubonakale liphantsi. U-Yellen uvumile ukuba isantya sokungabikho kwemisebenzi sithe tye.
Kuphindwe kabini izinga elichazwe ngokubanzi.
Ixabiso lentengo liya kuba yi-1,9 ekhulwini ngo-2018, i-2.0 ekhulwini ngo-2019, kunye ne-2.1 ekhulwini ngo-2020. Ixabiso lokunyuka kwexabiso eliphambili likhupha ixabiso lentengo yegesi kunye nezokutya . I-Fed ikhetha ukusebenzisa elo nqanaba xa ibeka umgaqo-mali wemali. Inani lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liya kuba yi-1,9 ekhulwini ngo-2018, iipesenti ezi-2.1 ngo-2019 kunye no-2020. (Akuqhelekanga ukuba izinga eliphambili lifana nexabiso eliqhelekileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.) Ngenhlanhla, isantya esingundoqo sisondele kwi-2.0 ye-Fed ejoliswe kuyo . Oko kunika igumbi leFed ukuphakamisa amazinga ukuya kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo. Nazi ezinye kwiMbali ye-Inflation Rate ne-Forecast yase - US .
Ukukhiqizwa kwe-US kuqikelele ukwandisa ngokukhawuleza kunomnotho jikelele. Uveliso luya kukhula ngama-2,8 ekhulwini ngo-2018. Ukukhula kuya kuphuza ukuya kuma-2,6 ekhulwini ngo-2019 kunye ne-2 ekhulwini ngo-2020. Ezi ziganeko azizange ziqwalasele izithembiso zikaMongameli uTrump ukwenza imisebenzi eminye .
Umgangatho wenzala
IKomiti ye- Federal Open Market iphakanyise ireyithi yemali yokutya okwangoku ukuya kuma-1.5 ekhulwini ngo-Disemba 2017. Ikulindele ukunyusa eli nqanaba lentengo kwi-2.1% ngo-2018, i-2.7 ekhulwini ngo-2019, kunye ne-2.9 ekhulwini ngo-2020.
Imilinganiselo yokutya yemali ekhutshweyo ilawula iirhafu zentsholongwane yesikhashana. Ezi zibandakanya intlawulo yebhanki ye- prime rate , i- Libor , inqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu kunye nemali-mboleko yenzalo kuphela , kunye namanani ekhadi lesikweletu.
Unokuzikhusela kwisantya se-Fed ngokukhetha ukuboleka kwemali ekhompyutheni apho kunokwenzeka khona.
I-Fed yaqala ukunciphisa i-$ 4 trillion yayo kwi-Treasurys ngo-Oktobha 2017. Ekuqaleni yathi yayiya kwenza njalo emva kokuba i-rate yemali ekhutshweyo ifakwe kwi-2.0%. Kodwa i-FOMC inqume ukuba kuya kuba ngcono ukulungelelanisa i-balance sheet yayo ngoku. I-Fed yazuza ezi ziqinisekiso ngexesha lokunciphisa ukulinganiswa , okuphelile ngowama-2014. Njengoko iFed ayisayi kuba yindawo yokubambisa izitrityiweyo, izakudala ukubonelela ngeemarike ze-Treasurys. Oko kunceda ukukhulisa isivuno kwiNqaku leNondyebo le- 10 leminyaka . Oko kuqhuba amazinga omdla wesikhathi eside, njengama -mortgages ahlawulisiweyo kunye nezibophelelo zenkampani .
Kodwa i- Nondyebo ivelisa kwakhona kuxhomekeke kwimfuno yedola. Ukuba ixabiso liphezulu, izityalo ziya kuhlahlela. Njengoko uqoqosho loqoqosho lwehlabathi lonke luphucula, abatyali-mali baye bafuna ubuncinci bezolimo-mali ezikhuselekileyo .
Ngenxa yoko, iirhafu zenkxaso-mali ezide ziza kuphakama ngo-2018 nangaphezulu.
Ixesha lokugqibela i-Fed ephakanyisiweyo yimivuzo yaba ngowama-2005. Incede ekubangela i- subprime mortgage crisis . Uninzi lwaseMelika lukholelwa ukuba imakethi yendawo yokuhlala iya kuphazamiseka kwiminyaka emibini ezayo. Kukho iintluzo zintlanu phakathi kweemarike zendlu ye-2017 kunye ne-2007 yemarike eyenza oku kungenakwenzeka.
Ixabiso leoli neGesi
Ulawulo loLwazi loMbane wase-US lunikeza umbono ukusuka ngo-2018-2050. Uqikelele ukuba amaxabiso angamafutha angcolileyo aya kuba ngama-$ 57 / umgqomo ngo-2018. Yiyo ye-Brent jikelele. I-West Texas i-Crude iya kuthi ijikeleze i-$ 4 / umgqomo ngaphantsi. I-EIA ilumkise ukuba kusekho ukungaxhamli kwixabiso. Ingxelo yokuba abathengisi bemveliso bakholelwa ukuba amanani angabelana phakathi kwe-$ 48 / b ne-$ 68 / b ngo-Matshi 2018.
I dollar eqinile iyanciphisa amaxabiso eoli. Kungenxa yokuba izivumelwano zeoli zithengwa ngeedola. Iinkampani ze-oyile zibeka abasebenzi, kwaye ezinye zichanekile kwiityala zabo. Iimali ezibophelelweyo zemali-mboleko azizange zenze kakuhle ngenxa yoko.
Imarike yeoli iyasabela kwimpembelelo yokuveliswa kweoli ye- US shale . Ukunciphisa amaxabiso ngamafutha ngama-25 ekhulwini ngo-2014 no-2015. Iindaba ezilungileyo zoqoqosho kukuba nazo zanciphisa iindleko zokuthutha, ukutya kunye nezinto eziyimveliso zoshishino. Oku kwaphakamisa inzuzo . Kwakhona kunika abathengi imali engenayo yokuchitha imali. Ukunciphisa okuncinci kukuba zombini iinkampani kunye neentsapho ziyalondoloza endaweni yokuchitha.
I-EIA yombono wamandla ngo-2050 uqikelela ukunyuka kwexabiso leoli. Ngo-2025, intengo yexabiso leoli yeBrent iya kunyuka ibe yi-$ 86 / b (ngo-2016 idola, esusa umphumo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso). Emva koko, imfuno yehlabathi iya kuqhuba amaxabiso eoli ukuya ku-R171 / b ngo-2050. Ngaloo ndlela, imithombo engancinci yeoli iya kuphelelwa, okwenza ukuveliswa kwamafutha angcolileyo kuyabiza.
Imisebenzi
I- Bureau of Labor Statistics ipapasha isimo sengqondo ngasinye kwishumi ngalinye. Ihamba ngokubanzi malunga noshishino ngalinye kunye nomsebenzi. Ngokubanzi, i-BLS ikulindele ukuba abasebenzi baqeshwe ngama-20.5 yezigidi zemisebenzi ukususela ngo-2010-2020. Ngelixa i-88 ekhulwini yemisebenzi yonke iya kuba nokukhula, ukukhula okukhawulezayo kuya kubakho kwiinkonzo zempilo , ukunakekelwa komntu kunye noloncedo loluntu, nokwakhiwa. Ukongezelela, imisebenzi efuna idigri ye-master iya kukhula ngokukhawuleza ngelixa ezo zifuna kuphela idiploma yesikolo esiphakeme ziza kukhula.
I-BLS ithatha ukuba uqoqosho luya kuhlaziywa ngokupheleleyo kwi-recession ngo-2020 kwaye ukuba abasebenzi baya kubuya emsebenzini opheleleyo okanye izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi li-4-5 ekhulwini. Ukukhula okubaluleke kakhulu (imisebenzi engama-5.7 yezigidi) kuya kubakho kwiinkonzo zempilo kunye nezinye iintlobo zoncedo loluntu njengabantu baseMelika.
Ukwanda kwenyuka kuninzi (imisebenzi engama-2.1 yezigidi) kuya kwenzeka kwimisebenzi yobungcali kunye nobugcisa. Uninzi lwalo lukhompyutheni yenkqubo yekhompyutha, ngokukodwa ubuchwephesha beselula, kunye nolawulo, inzululwazi kunye nezobuchwepheshe. Amashishini aya kufuna iingcebiso malunga nokucwangcisa kunye nokusekwa kwempahla, ukuphunyezwa kobuchwepheshe obutsha, nokuthobela ukhuseleko lwendawo yokusebenza, imimiselo nemimiselo yengqesho.
Olunye ukwanda okukhulu luya kwenzeka kwimfundo (imisebenzi eyizigidi eziyi-1.8), ukuthengiswa (imisebenzi eyizigidi eziyi-1.7) kunye neehotele / zokudlela (imisebenzi yezigidi eziyi-1). Omnye ummandla iinkonzo ezahlukeneyo (imisebenzi eyi-1.6 yezigidi). Ezibandakanya izibonelelo zabantu, abasebenzi bexesha kunye nabasebenzi bexeshana kunye nokuqokelela inkunkuma.
Njengoko izindlu zifumana kwakhona, ukwakhiwa kuya kwongeza imisebenzi eyi-1.8 yezigidi ngelixa ezinye iindawo zokuvelisa ziza kulahlekelwa yimisebenzi ngenxa yobugcisa kunye nokugqithisa.
Indlela ekuchaphazela ngayo
U-2018 uya kuba ngumnyaka ophuculisayo njengoko siqhubeka sitsho nje ukuba siphumelele kwimiphumo yemali. Jonga ukunyaniseka okungaqhelekanga kwimarike yemasheya . Oko ngokuqhelekileyo kubonisa ukuphakanyiswa komjikelo wezoshishino . Oko kuthetha ukuba ukuhlaliswa kwemali mhlawumbi kubini kwiminyaka emibili ukuya emithathu ngaphandle. Konke kuxhomekeke ekubeni uMongameli weTrump cuts tax will create the jobs he promised .
Ngako oko, into efanelekileyo kukuba uhlale ungagxininisa kwi-intlalo yakho. Qhubeka ukuphucula izakhono zakho kwaye uthabathe inkcazo ecacileyo yomsebenzi wakho. Ukuba utyalole kwimarike yesitokisi, qinisa ngexesha lokubuyisela. Ukunyuka kwamanani entengo , kuquka igolide , ioli kunye nekhofi, iya kubuya kwintetho. Konke kuzo, ixesha elihle lokunciphisa amatyala, ukwakha imali yakho, nokunyusa ubutyebi bakho.