Ixabiso leMpahla ye-oyile linokunyuka ngaphaya kwama-$ 200 ngeBharrel
Ngo-Matshi 2018, ixabiso leoli lehlabathi lilinganiselwa kuma-66 / b. Emva koko kushaya i $ 70 / b ngoJanuwari. Amanani athathwe xa abathengisi bephendula ngomhla kaNovemba 30, 2017, intlanganiso ye- OPEC . Amalungu e-cartel yeoli ayavuma ukugcina ukucinywa kwemveliso ngo-2018.
Amanani amafutha aphantse aphindwe kathathu iminyaka engama-13 engama-$ 26.55 / b ngo-Januwari 20, 2016. Kwiinyanga ezintandathu ngaphambi kokuba, amaxabiso abe ngu-60 / b. Ngonyaka ngaphambi kukaJuni 2014, bebeyi-100.26 / b. Ngezinto ezininzi eziguqukayo ezichaphazela intengiso yeoli yanamhlanje, iyatshintsha imihla ngemihla.
Kukho amabakala amabini eoli ehlambulukileyo ekhonza njengemilinganiselo yamanye amaxabiso eoli. I-West Texas Intermediate ivela, kwaye ingumzekelo, iUnited States. Ioli yeBrent North Sea ivela kwiNtshona-ntshona Yurophu, kwaye iyimilinganiselo yexabiso leoli lehlabathi. Ixabiso lentsimbi ye-WTI yi-$ 4 / b ngaphantsi kwamaxabiso eBrent. NgoDisemba 2015, umahluko wawungowama-$ 2 / b kuphela. Kwakufanele emva kokuba iNkomfa isuswe iminyaka engama-40 kwi-export oil oil.
I-EIA ibikezela ukuba ioli ye-WTI iya kufikelela kwi-$ 59 / b ngo-2018. Abathengisi bempahla nabo baxela ixabiso leoli kwiikontrakthi zabo zesikhathi esizayo. Baxela ukuba intengo ye-WTI ingaba kuphi ukusuka kwi-$ 52 / b ukuya kwi-78 / b ngo-Julayi 2018.
Izizathu ezine zexabiso elithengiswayo leoli
Ixabiso liye lanconywa ngokubonga ngokungena kwioli. Amaxabiso e-oyile ayetyenziselwa ukuguquka kwexesha eliqikelelwayo. Baye bahluma entwasahlobo, njengoko abathengisi beoli babekulindeleke ukuba bafune ukuqhuba iholide. Xa kufuneke kufuneke, amaxabiso awela ekwindla nasebusika.
Ngoko kutheni amaxabiso eoli ayengekaze aqikelele? Icandelo le-oyile liye latshintsha ngeendlela ezine eziphambili.
Okokuqala, ukuveliswa kweoli ye- shale kunye namafutha athile, njenge-ethanol, yaqala ukwanda ngo-2015 . Ukuveliswa kwamafutha e-US bekuyi-10.4 yezigidi zemibhodo / imini ngo-2018. I-EIA iqikelela ukuba iya kuba ngama-10.7 yezigidi b / d ngo-2018, umyinge ophezulu wonyaka wokuvelisa kwimbali yase-US. Kuza kubetha irekhodi elidlulileyo le-9.6 yezigidigidi b / d ebekwe ngo-1970. Ukuveliswa kwama-9.3 izigidigidi b / d ngo-2017. I-EIA ibikezela ukuba ukuveliswa kweoli kuya kuba ngu-11.4 yezigidi b / d ngo-2019.
Kutheni i-United States ikhiqiza ioli kakhulu kwixabiso elidlulileyo? Abakhiqizi abaninzi beoli batye baqhuba kakuhle xa bekhipha ioli. Bafumene iindlela zokugcina izixhobo zivulekile, zigcinwe iindleko zokubamba. Ngelo xesha, amaqula amakhulu eoli eGulf aqala ukuvelisa ngokubanzi. Abazange bakwazi ukuyeka umveliso ngaphandle kwexabiso elisezantsi leoli. Ngenxa yoko, amashishini amakhulu endala oyile ayeka ukuhlola iimithombo ezintsha. Ezi nkampani ziquka i-Exxon-Mobil, BP, i-Chevron kunye neRoyal Dutch Shell. Kwakungabizi ukuba bathengise iinkampani zeoli ze-shale ezingaphantsi.
I-International Energy Management ixela ukuba iUnited States iya kuba ngumlimi weoli owona mkhulu ngowama-2023.
Icandelo leoli le-US liyakhula ngokwaneleyo ukuhlangabezana neemfuno zasekhaya. Ukuze wenze njalo, kufuneka ufumane ibhalansi elungileyo. Kumele ukwandise ukubonelela ngokukhawuleza ukwenzela ukugcina amanani aphakamileyo ngokwaneleyo ukuhlawula ukunyuka kokuhlola.
Okwesibini, u- OPEC unciphise umlinganiselo wokubeka phantsi phantsi kwamaxabiso. NgoNovemba 30, ngo-2016, amalungu ayo avumile ukunciphisa umveliso nge-1.2 million b / d ngoJanuwari 2017. Amaxabiso aqala ukunyuka emva kokupapashwa kwe-OPEC. NgoNovemba 30, ngo-2017, i-OPEC yavuma ukuqhubeka nokucinywa kwemveliso ngo-2018.
Ukunciphisa kwe-OPEC kuyanciphisa ukuvelisa ukuya kwi-32.5 yezigidi b / d. I-EIA iqikelela ukuba i-OPEC izakuvelisa izigidi ezingama-32.8 b / d ngo-2018. Kodwa zombini amanani aphezulu kunomlinganiselo we-2015 we-32.32 wezigidi b / d.
Kuyo yonke imbali yayo, i-OPEC ilawulwa imveliso ukugcina ixabiso lemali engama-70 / b. Ngo-2014, yashiye lo mgaqo-nkqubo.
I-Saudi Arabia, igalelo elikhulu le-OPEC, linciphisa intengo yalo kubathengi balo abakhulu kakhulu ngo-Oktobha 2014. Ayifuni ukulahlekelwa isabelo semarike kwisiganeko sayo, Iran . Ezi zizwe zimbambano zivela kwingxabano phakathi kwamaSunni namaShiite amaSulumane. I-Iran ithembise ukuphindwa kabini kwii-oil zithunyelwa kumazwe angama-2.4 ezigidi b / d emva kokuba kuthatyathwe izigwebo. Ulwaphulo-mthetho lwama-nyukliya ka-2015 lwaphakamisa izigwebo zoqoqosho lwe-2010 kwaye lwavumela i-Saudi Arabia iqhosha elikhulu ukuthunyelwa kweoli kwakhona ngo-2016.
I-Saudi Arabia ayifuni ukulahlekelwa isabelo semarike kubavelisi beoli ye-US shale. Ukubetha ukuba amanani aphantsi aya kunyanzelisa abavelisi abaninzi be-US shale ngaphandle kweshishini kwaye banciphise ukhuphiswano lwabo. Kwakulungile. Ekuqaleni, abavelisi be-shale bafumana iindlela zokugcina ukupompa kweoli. Ngenxa yokunyusa ukwanda kwe-US, imfuno yeoli ye-OPEC yawela kwi-30 yezigidi b / d ngo-2014 ukuya kwezigidi ezingama-29 b / d ngo-2015. Kodwa i-dollar eqinile yathi amazwe e-OPEC ahlale enenzuzo kwixabiso elisezantsi leoli. Esikhundleni sokulahlekelwa isabelo semarike, i-OPEC igcinwe ekujoliswe kuyo kwimveliso kwizigidi ezingama-30 b / d.
Amanani aphantsi avelise ukuveliswa kweoli ye-2016 yase-US ukuya kwii-8.9 yezigidi b / d. Abakhiqizi be-shale abancinci abancinci okanye banokuthengwa. Ukunciphisa ukubonelelwa ngeepesenti ezili-10, ukudala i- boom kunye ne-oil shale oil .
Okwesithathu, abathengisi basemzini bangaphandle bathengisa ixabiso le dollar ngama- 25 ekhulwini ngo-2014 no-2015 . Zonke iintengiso zeoli zihlawulwa kwiidola zase-US. I-dollar eqinile yanceda ukuba ezinye zeepesenti ezingama-70 zinciphise kwixabiso lepetroleum kumazwe angaphandle. Uninzi lwamazwe athengisa ioli zikhupha iirhafu zazo kwiidola. Ngoko ke, ukunyuka kweepesenti ezingama-25 kwidola kuchitha ama-25 ekhulwini ekuhlahleni kwamaxabiso eoli. Ukungaqiniseki kwihlabathi jikelele yinto enye eyenza idola lase-US libe namandla .
Ixabiso ledoli liye lahla ukusuka ngoDisemba 2016, ngokutsho kwetayitile echaphazelekayo yeDXY. NgoDisemba 11, 2016, i- USDX yayingu-102.95. Ngasekuqaleni kuka-2017, i- hedge funds yaqala ukukhawuleza idola njengoko uqoqosho lwaseYurophu luphuculwe. Njengoko i-euro yavuka, idola lawa. Ngo-Apreli 11, 2018, yawela kwi-89.53.
Okwesine, ukufunwa kwehlabathi jikelele kwanda kancinci kunokuba kulindeleke . Kuye kwavuka kuphela kwi-93.3 yezigidi b / d ngo-2015, ukusuka kwi-92.4 yezigidi b / d ngo-2014, ngokwe-IEA. Uninzi lwenyuka luvela e- China , ngoku lusebenzisa i-12 ekhulwini ye-oyile yokuveliswa kweoli. Ekubeni ukuhlaziywa koqoqosho lwayo kwanciphisa ukukhula kwayo, ukukhula kweemfuno zehlabathi jikelele kungaqhubeka nokuphuculwa.
I-Oil Price Forecast 2025 kunye no-2050
Ngo-2025, intengo yexabiso lebhoyile ye-Brent ioli ehlaziyiweyo iza kufikelela kuma-dollar ayi-85.70 / b (ngo-2017 idola, esusa umphumo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso). Ngo-2030, imfuneko yehlabathi iya kuqhuba amaxabiso eoli kwi-92.82 / b. Ngo-2040, amaxabiso aya kuba ngu-106.08 / b (kwakhona ngo-2017 idola). Ngelo xesha, imithombo engancinci yeoli iya kuphelelwa, okwenza kube kubi kakhulu ukukhupha ioli. Ngo-2050, ixabiso leoli liza kuba ngu-113.56 / b, ngokubhekiselele kwiThebhile 12 yeeTables Reference Index ze-EIA. I-EIA inciphise ukuqikelela kwexabiso layo ukusuka ngo-2017, ebonisa ukuzinza kweemakethe ze-oli ye-shale.
Ngo-2022, iUnited States iya kuba ngumthengisi wamandla omnatha, ukuthumela ngaphandle kokungenisa. Kuye kwaba ngumthengisi wamandla omnatha ukususela ngowe-1953. Ukuveliswa kweeyile kuza kuphakama ngowe-2020, xa ukuveliswa kweoli ye-shale kuya kunqumla kwi-12 yezigidi b / d. I-shale iya kwenza ama-65 ekhulwini we-oli yokuvelisa ioli.
Iziganeko ze-EIA zingatshintsha ekuphenduleni kwimithetho emitsha nemimiselo. Ngokomzekelo, i-prediction ayiyi kuthathelwa ingqalelo isicwangciso soMbane ococekileyo. Imigaqo emininzi yemimiselo, njenge-Initiative Gas Gas Initiative, inokuchaphazela ukubikezela. Imimiselo yomhlaba wonke eyanciphisa ukukhutshwa kweenqanawa eziya olwandle ziye zafakwa kwi-forecast.
I-EIA ithatha ukuba ukufunwa kwepetroleum kuyaphuma njengokuba izibonelelo zincike ngakumbi kwi-gesi yendalo kunye namandla avuselelwe. Kwakhona kuthatha uqoqosho lukhula malunga neepesenti ezingama-2 ngonyaka, ngelixa ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kwandisa u-0.4 ekhulwini ngonyaka. I-EIA nayo inezibikezelo kwezinye iimeko ezinokwenzeka.
Ixabiso leMpahla ye-oyile linokunyuka ngaphaya kwama-$ 200 ngeBharrel
Amaxabiso e-oyile afikelela kwiirekhodi eziphezulu ze-145 / b ngo-2008 kwaye yayingama-$ 100 / b ngo-2014. Yilapho i- Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development ibikezela ukuba intengo yeoli yeBrent yayiza kufikelela kuma-270 / b ngo-2020. Isekelwe isingqelo sayo sokufunwa kwezinto ezivela kwiChina nakwezinye iimarike ezikhulayo. Amanani aphezulu oku kubonakala ngathi akunakwenzeka ngoku ukuba ioli ye-shale ikhona.
Ingcamango yeoli kwi $ 200 / b ibonakala iyingozi kwindlela yokuphila yaseMerika. Kodwa abantu baseYurophu bebonke bahlawula ixabiso elimalunga nama-250 / b beminyaka ngeminyaka ngenxa yeerhafu eziphezulu. Oku akuzange kuvimbele i-EU ukuba ibe ngumthengi wezona zikhulu zentathu yehlabathi. Ngethuba nje abantu benethuba lokulungelelanisa, baya kufumana iindlela zokuhlala ngamaxabiso aphezulu eoli.
2020 kuphela iminyaka emibini nje kuphela, kodwa jonga ukuba ixabiso elithintekayo liye lalingakanani kwiminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo, ephakathi kwe-$ 26.55 / b kunye ne-145 / b. Ukuba ngabavelisi beoli ye-shale abaneleyo bephuma kwishishini, kwaye i-Iran ayiyikuvelisa oko ithethayo, amaxabiso angabuyela kumanqanaba abo embali ye-$ 70- $ 100 ngomgqomo . I-OPEC ibalwa kuyo.
I-OECD iyavuma ukuba amaxabiso aphezulu eoli ayanciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho kunye nemfuno ephantsi. Ixabiso eliphezulu leoli linokubangela "ukutshatyalaliswa kwemfuno." Ukuba amaxabiso aphezulu ahlala ixesha elide ngokwaneleyo, abantu batshintsha imikhuba yabo yokuthenga. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwenzelwa emva kokutshatyalazwa kweoli ka-1979. Ixabiso leoli liye lahleka kangangokuba malunga neminyaka emithandathu. Ekugqibeleni bawa xa ixabiso linciphile kwaye linikezelwa.
Abahloli bee-oyile bayakwazi ukuhlawula ixabiso eliphakamileyo xa besaba malunga nokunqongophala kwexesha elizayo. Yilokho okwenzeka kwixabiso lamachiza ngo-2008 . Abahwebi babesaba ukuba i-China imfuno yeoli iya kufumana. Abatyalomali baqhuba amaxabiso eoli kwiirekhodi ezingama-145 / b. Ezi nkxalabo zazingenangqiqo, njengoko ihlabathi likhawuleza liye lahlaselwa kunye nokufuna kweoli.
Gcina ukhumbule ukuba naluphi na ulwaphulelo olubonakalayo lunokubangela ukuba abarhwebi batyeke kwaye amaxabiso abe yi-spike. Ukunqongophala okubonakalayo kunokubangelwa ziziphepho, isisongelo semfazwe kwiindawo zokuthumela iioli, okanye ukucima ukucoca. Kodwa amaxabiso atya ukulinganisela kwixesha elide. Kungenxa yokuba ukubonelela ngenye yezinto ezintathu ezichaphazela amaxabiso eoli .