I-OPEC ibhekene nabavelisi beoli be-US shale kwingxenye yeemarike. Abavelisi be-Shale baqhubelela ukuvelisa ioli ye-oil kwi-9.4 yezigidi ze-mbpd ngo-2015.
Ingqungquthela ye-OPEC yemarike ye-OP.8 ngonyaka we-2014 ukusuka kwi-44.5% ngonyaka ka-2012. Eyadala i- boom kunye nokugubha kwi-US shale yoshishino lweoli .
I-OPEC ayifuni ukuba amanani aphakamileyo kakhulu, okanye ezinye iimithombo zamanzi ukuqala ukubukeka kakuhle kwakhona. Ixabiso lentengo ye-OPEC yeoli i $ 70- $ 80 ngomgqomo. Kodwa abavelisi be-US shale badinga i-$ 40- $ 50 ngombhobho ukuhlawula izibophelelo eziphezulu ezizisebenzisela ukuxhasa imali. Kuze kube ngo-2016, i-OPEC yamkele ixabiso eliphantsi ukugcina isabelo semarike.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, ixabiso leoli neyegesi liyakulinganiswa ngethuba elilindelekileyo lokuhamba. Bavuka entwasahlobo baze bawele ekwindla. Kungenxa yokuba ixa elizayo abathengisi balindele ukunyuka kweemfuno zexesha lexesha lokushayela kweeholide. Nangona ukufudumala kweoli ukunyuka kubusika, akwanele ukukhupha i-post-vacation drop in demand for petroleum.
Enye into eyenza amaxabiso eoli iyancipha .
Uninzi lweenkontileka zeoli ehlabathini lonke zithengiswa ngeedola. Ngenxa yoko, amazwe angaphandle okuthumela amafutha atyelela imali yawo kwiidola. Xa idola liyancipha, ngokunjalo i-oil oil income, kodwa iindleko zenyuka. Ngako oko, i-OPEC inokuphakamisa intlawulo yeoli ukwenzela ukuba igcine ingeniso yayo kwaye igcine iindleko zokuthengiswa kwempahla rhoqo.
Ukuthelekisa kwiiHolo zeMpahla zeMpahla eziDlulileyo
2015 - I-Snapback evela kwi-40 Percent Decline ngonyaka oPhambili
Ngo-2015, ukuveliswa kweoli ye-oil shale yawa ngokuphendula kumanani aphantsi. Njengoko uJosh Mitchell abike kwi-Wall Street Journal, inani labaqhubi bemigodi liye lancipha ama-44 ekhulwini kwikota yokuqala.
Amanani eoli e-US (West Texas Intermediate) ayewa ngama-40 eepesenti ukusuka kwiiR10 106 / umgqomo ngoJuni 2014 ukuya kwi-$ 59 / umgqomo ngoDisemba. Oko kwakuphendula ekunikezeni okuphezulu. Ngelo xesha, abathengisi bephambili baxosha ixabiso leedola ngamaphesenti angama-15 ngo-2014. Njengoko ioli ixabiso lentlawulo kwiidola, oku ku- OPEC kunye nabanye abavelisi belizwe bangaphantsi kwexabiso lexabiso leoli. Yingakho i-Saudi Arabia ilandela isabelo semarike endaweni yokusika imveliso nokunyusa amaxabiso.
Ngo-Agasti ka-2013, amaxabiso e-Oktobha ukuthunyelwa kweoli ye-Brent engcolileyo yenyuka ukuya kwi-115.59 / ibhayili, iphezulu kwiinyanga ezintandathu. Amanani aseNtshonalanga yaseTexas aphakathi kwee-crude aphakama angama-109.98 / umgqomo, oneminyaka emibili ephakamileyo. Abathengisi banamathengisa amanani emva kokuba iUnited States yamemezele ukuba yayiza kusebenzisa iinqwelo ze-airstrikes ukuhlwaya uMongameli wase-Syria u-Assad ngokusebenzisa izixhobo zamakhemikhali ukubulala amakhulu abantu.
I-Syria ayikho umthengisi omkhulu weoli, kodwa abahwebi bakhathazekile malunga neempembelelo ezinokubakho.
Ezi ziquka ukuphazanyiswa kweoli evela e-Iran, isiqabane esiyinhloko saseSiriya, intlanzi e-Iraq, kunye nokuphazamiseka okuqhubekayo eYiputa.
NgoJulayi 18, 2013, amaxabiso eoli awatshayela i-109 109.71 / umgqomo kwioli yeBrent engcolileyo . I-catalyst yayisuswa nguMongameli we-Egypt uMorsi kwi-ofisi. Iintengiso zabathengisi zixhalabile, ngaphandle kwesizathu, ukuba iYiputa iya kuvala i-Suez Canal ukuba intshutshiso isasazeka.
NgoJanuwari 2013, amaxabiso eoli aphakama xa i-Iran idlala imidlalo yezemfazwe kufuphi ne-Straits of Hormuz. Abathengisi babone ukuba njengokuba sisongelo kule ndlela yokuhamba ngokucwangcisa. Ngo-Februwari 8, ioli yayifinyelele i-$ 118.90 / umgqomo. Oku thumele ixabiso legesi kwi-3.85 yegoloni ngoFebruwari 25.
2012. Amaxabiso e-oyile aqala ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza ngo-2012 kunokuba enza ngo-2011. Ixabiso le-WTI ioli ehlaziyiweyo yagqitywa ngaphezu kwe-$ 100 / umgqomo ka-Februwari 13, 2012, iiveki ezimbini ngaphambi kwe-2011. ngeveki enye.
Ixabiso leGesi sele liye laphula i-$ 3.50 igron empuma nasentshonalanga ngoJanuwari.
Ngo-Matshi, i-Brent i-oil engcolile ihamba nge-$ 125 / umgqomo. Yagqitywa ibe yi-$ 95 / umgqomo ngoJuni, kodwa ivuke kwi-113.36 ngo-Agasti. Ngokuqhelekileyo, amaxabiso eoli awela ekuwa nasebusika. Kodwa kulo nyaka, abathengi beemveliso ziza kubasa iintengo zeoli ukuze bahlawule umgaqo-nkqubo wezimali weFed . Bathengisa idoli yayiza kuhlahla iqhube ixabiso leoli. Babengalunganga malunga nedola, kodwa amaxabiso eoli aphakama naphezu kwemfuno ephantsi.
2011. Amanani amafutha angcolileyo afinyelele kuma-113.93 ngo-Apreli 29, 2011. Amaxabiso ayelokhu ekhula ngokukhawuleza ukususela ngoFebruwari 2009, xa behla kwi $ 39 / umgqomo. Bakhupha iR $ 70- $ 80 ngomtya ukuya ngasekupheleni kuka-2010. Ixabiso eliphezulu leoli liguqulela kwixabiso eliphezulu zegesi . I-Petroleum isisithako kwisichumisi. Oku, kunye neendleko eziphezulu zokuthutha, kwandisa amaxabiso okutya . Imikhosi eqhuba ixabiso leoli ephezulu yayifana noko kwenzekayo xa ioli itshabalalisa ixesha lonke ngo-2008.
2008. Ixabiso leoli libethe ixesha elide eliyi-143.68 / umgqomo ngoJulayi 2008, emva kokuphuma kweepesenti ezingama-25 kwiinyanga ezintathu. Oku kuqhube amaxabiso e-gas ukuya kwi-4.17 yegolon. Ininzi imithombo yeendaba ichazwa ngokunyuka kweemfuno ezivela kwiChina naseIndiya , zidibaniswe nokuthengiswa kweeNigeria kunye ne-Iraq yemihlaba yeoli.
Kodwa ukunyuka kwemali kwaba yimbangela yangempela. Imfuno yehlabathi lonke ngo-2008 yayisezantsi kwaye ukunikezelwa kwehlabathi jikelele kwenyuka. Ukusetyenziswa kwe-oyile kuyehla kwi-86.66 yezigidi imitha ngemini (bpd) kwikota yesine ka-2007 ukuya kwi-85.73 yezigidi ze-bpd kwikota yokuqala ka-2008. Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukunikezelwa kunyuke ukusuka kuma-85.49 ukuya kwi-86.17 yezigidi bpd. Ngokomthetho wesigqibo , amaxabiso kufuneka ayancipha. Kunoko, banda malunga neepesenti ezingama-25, ukusuka kwi-$ 87.79 ukuya kwi-110.21 ye-barrel.
I-EIA ithathe inxalenye yecala lokutshatyalaliswa kwentliziyo yaseVenezuela naseNigeria kunye nokwanda kweemfuno ezivela eChina. Kwakhona kubuza ukuba ngaba ukunyuka kwemali yotyalomali kwiimarike zeemveliso kunokuchaphazela amaxabiso. Abatyalomali babegxininisa ngaphandle kwezindlu eziphantsi komhlaba kunye neemarike zamasheya . Baphambukisa imali yabo kwixesha lexesha leoli . Ukunyuka ngokukhawuleza kwaqhuma amaxabiso eoli.
Lo bubble lwe-asethi ngokukhawuleza usasazeka kwezinye izinto . Iingxowa-mali zimatya zijikeleza ingqolowa, igolide kunye nezinye iimarike ezizayo. Yayiphula amaxabiso okutya ehlabathini lonke. Okudala indlala kunye nokudla okuphazamisayo kumazwe asakhulayo.