Ngubani Olawula Ixabiso Lamafutha?
Ezinye iinkampani zinokuchaphazela kuphela izigqibo zabathengisi. Aba bethinteli baquka urhulumente waseUnited States kunye noMbutho weePetroleum Exporting Countries . Abalawuli amanani kuba abahwebi bawabeka ngokusemthethweni kwiimarike.
Iikontrakthi zexesha elizayo zeoli zizivumelwano zokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa ioli ngosuku oluthile kwixesha elizayo ngenani elivunyelweneyo. Zenziwa phantsi komgangatho wokuthengiselana ngeemveliso ngabahwebi abhalisiweyo kunye neKomishoni yokuThengiswa kweeNkxaso zeeMveliso. Iimveliso zithengiswe iminyaka engaphezu kwe-100. I-CFTC iye yawalawula ukususela ngowe-1920.
Abathengisi bemveliso bawela kwiindidi ezimbini. Uninzi lwababameli beenkampani abasebenzisa ioli. Bathenga ioli ukwenzela ukuba kufike umhla ozayo kwixabiso elimisiweyo. Ngale ndlela, bayazi ixabiso leoli, banokuzicwangcisa ngemali, kwaye banciphisa okanye bahlasele ingozi kwimibutho yabo. Abahwebi kwinqanaba lesibini ngabaqingqi beengcali. Injongo yabo kuphela ukukwenza imali kwiinguqu kwioli.
Izinto eziThathu Abathengisi basebenzise ukuQinisekisa ixabiso leeOyile
Kukho izinto ezintathu eziphambili ezithengiswa ngabathengisi bempahla xa kuphuhliswa iibhidi ezenza amaxabiso eoli.
Okokuqala ukubonelelwa kwangoku ngokwemveliso. Ukususela ngowe-1973, i-OPEC iyanciphisa ama-61 ekhulwini kwii-oli zelizwe. Kodwa ukuveliswa kweoli ye-US shale kabini phakathi ko-2011 no-2014. Oko kwakha i-oil glut. Abathengi banokuthi bahlawule ixabiso ukuya kwi-$ 45 ngomgqomo ngo-2014. Amaxabiso awa kwakhona ngoDisemba 2015 ukuya kuma-36.87 ayi-barrel.
I-OPEC iya kuqhekeza ukunciphisa ukubonelela ukugcina ioli ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-70 ye-barrel. Ngeli xesha, kwavumela ukuba amanani awele ngenxa yokuba ayengayi kulahlekelwa imali ade ioli ibe yi-$ 20 umgqomo.
Abavelisi be-Shale badinga i-$ 40- $ 50 ngomgqomo ukuhlawula izibophelelo eziphezulu ezizisebenzisayo zokuxhasa imali. OPEC ukubheja ukuba abavelisi beoli ye - shale baya kuphuma kwishishini. Oku kuya kukuvumela ukuba igcine isabelo saso sorhwebo. Olu qalise ukuqala ngo-2016. I- forecast forecast yexabiso leoli ibibonise ukungazinzi kwezo xabiso ngenxa yeenguqu zokubonelelwa kweoli, ixabiso lentela, izenzo ze-OPEC, kunye nemfuno yehlabathi.
Okwesibini lufikelelo lokubonelela ngexesha elizayo. Oku kuxho mekeke kwioli . Iquka oko kufumaneka kwiindawo zokucoca ze-US kwakunye nakwiSicwangciso sePetroleum Reserves . Ezi zibonelelo zifikeleleka lula kakhulu ukunyusa ukunikezelwa kweoli xa amaxabiso aphezulu kakhulu. I-Saudi Arabia inokuphinda ifake kwisandla sayo esikhulu sokugcina.
Okwesithathu imfuno yeoli, ngokukodwa evela eUnited States. Ezi ngqikelelo zinikezelwa rhoqo ngenyanga nge- Arhente yeNgcaciso yamandla . Ifuna ukunyuka ngexesha lexesha lokuqhuba ikhefu. Ukuqikelela ukufunwa kwemfuneko, iziganeko zokuhamba ukusuka ku-AAA zisetyenziselwa ukuchonga ukusebenzisa i-petroli. Ebudeni busika, izibikezelo zemozulu zisetyenziselwa ukuchonga ukusetyenziswa kweoli yokufudumeza.
Iimeko zehlabathi zichaphazela njani amaxabiso e-oyile
Iimeko ezinokwenzeka kwihlabathi kumazwe athiqiza ngamafutha ngokunyusa amaxabiso eoli. Kungenxa yokuba abahwebi banenkxalabo yentlekele iya kunciphisa ukunikezelwa.
Oku kwenzeka ngoJanuwari 2012 emva kokuba abahloli bafumane ubungqina obuninzi bokuthi i-Iran yayisondele ekwakheni izixhobo zamandla enyukliya. I-United States kunye neYurophu yaseYurophu yaqala ukuthotywa kwezemali. I-Iran yayisongela ukuvala iStrait yaseHormuz. I-United States yasabela ngesithembiso sokuvulela iStrave kunye nomkhosi wamasosha xa kuyimfuneko. Ingxaki yokuba isiteleka sase-Israel yayikuxhalabisa.
Ngenxa yoko, amaxabiso eoli ahlasele i-dollar ayi-95 ukuya kwi-100 eyi-barrel ukusuka ngoNovemba ukuya ngoJanuwari. Phakathi noFebruwari, i-oyile yaphuka ngaphezu kwe-100 i-barrel kwaye yahlala khona. Amanani eGesi abuyele kwi $ 3.50 ngegaloni. Iingqapheli zithi igesi yayiza kuba yi-$ 4 ngegolon ngexesha lokushayela kwehlobo.
Ukubandezeleka kwehlabathi kubangele nokunyuka kwamaxabiso eoli entwasahlobo ka-2011. Ngo- Matshi 2011 , abatyali-mali bathatha uxhalaba malunga nokuxhamla e-Libya, eYiputa naseTunisia kwizinto ezaziwa ngokuba yi-Arab Spring. Amanani e-oyile aphakama ngaphezu kwe-100 eyi-barrel ekuqaleni kweKwindla waza wafika kwi-113 yenqanawa ekupheleni kuka-Apreli.
Ukuvukela kwama-Arab Spring kwagqitywa ngehlobo kwaye kwaphumela ekutshitshisweni kwabakhohlisi kulawo mazwe. Ekuqaleni, abathengisi beempahla babenxhala lokuba i-Arab Spring iya kuphazamisa ukunikezelwa kweoli. Kodwa xa oko kungenzeki, ixabiso leoli libuyele ngaphantsi kwe-100 lemitha ngemitha phakathi noJuni.
Ixabiso le-oyile liye landa i-$ 10 ngomgqomo ngoJulayi 2006 xa imfazwe yase-Lebanon-Lebanon yaphakamisa ukwesaba kobungozi bokulwa ne-Iran. I-oyili yenyuka ukusuka ekujoliswe kuyo kwi-70 ye-barrel ngo-Meyi ukuya kwi-record-high ye-$ 77 umgqomo ngasekupheleni kukaJulayi. Ukuhlaziywa kwexabiso lembali yeoli kwichaza oko kwenza amaxabiso eoli anqabiseke.
Impembelelo yeeNkcitho kwiixabiso leeMpahla
Iintlekele zendalo kunye nezenzelwe abantu zingenza ixabiso leoli ifake ixabiso. Iphepho iKatrina yabangela ukuba amaxabiso eoli aphakame ama-dollar amathathu ngemali yamarri kunye neerhasi ukufikelela kuma-dollar ama-5 nge-gallon ngo-2005. U-Katrina wabathintela iipesenti ezingama-19 zesiveliso seoli. Kwafika kwizithende zeNqantyambo uRita. Phakathi kwezi zimbini, i-113 i-oilshots kunye neerhasi zamanzi zatshatyalaliswa kwaye i-457 yeoli kunye ne-gas pipeline zonakaliswe.
Ngomhla ka-Meyi 2011, izikhukhula zeMlambo i-Mississippi zenze ukuba ixabiso legesi liye lifike kwi-3.98 yegolon. Abahwebi babenenkxalabo yokuba umkhukula wawuyonakalisa ukulungiswa kweoli.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukuchithwa kweoli ye-Exxon-Valdez akuzange kubangele amaxabiso eoli. Esinye sezizathu kukuba amaxabiso eoli ngo-1989 yayingama-20 engama-barrel. Enye enye yayiyi-250,000 ibharri eye yachithwa. Nangona le nto yayinempembelelo enobunxweme lwama-Alaska, ayizange isongele umhlaba.
I- oilPill ye-BP yahlutha amaxesha angaphezu kwezi-18 ioli kunokuba i- Exxon Valdez . Sekunjalo, ixabiso leoli negesi alinakususwa ngenxa yoko. Ngoba? Enye into, ukufunwa kwehlabathi kwinqanaba ngenxa yokuhlaziywa kancinci ukusuka kwingxaki yezimali ka - 2008 kunye nokunciphisa imali . Okwesibini, nangona izigidi ezili-174 zezigidi zeoli zachithwa, kwaphela ixesha elide. Kwakungekho nepesenti enkulu yeoli epheleleyo esetyenziswa yi-United States. Enyanisweni, kwakufuneka ioli yeentsuku ezili-9. I-United States yayidla imitha eyi-6.99 yezigidigidi ngo-2010, ngokwe-US Energy Information Administration. Le yimizuzu engaphezu kwezigidi ezili-19 ngosuku.