Ngaba i-2018 i-Goldilocks Economy?
Uqoqosho olusempilweni lubizwa ngokuba yigama elidumile labantwana, i-Goldilocks kunye neentsimbi ezintathu.
Intombazana encinane yayidla iphalaji yebhere eyayingashushu okanye ingabanda kakhulu. Njenge-porridge, i-Goldilocks qoqosho yinto "echanekileyo."
Izizathu kunye neempembelelo
Le njongo yomgaqo-nkqubo we-Fed kunye nomgaqo-nkqubo we-Congress. Bafuna ukudala isidingo esaneleyo ukuze kugcinwe uqoqosho ekuhambeni kweempilo.
Nangona kunjalo, iCongress nayo ineenjongo zezopolitiko eziphazamisa ukudala i-Goldilocks ezoqoqosho. Amalungu eenkomfa azivumelani nendlela yokwenza. Iqela leeRephablikhi likhuthaza ukonga kwezoqoqosho kunye neReaganomics , ngelixa abanye bakholelwa kwiinkqubo ze-Keynesian.
Ngenxa yoko, i-Fed idla ngokuhlawula xa iinjongo zepolitiki ziphazamisa umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ukudala uqoqosho lwe-Goldilocks. Enyanisweni, abaninzi abahlalutyi ngoku bakholelwa ukuba kuye kwaba yinto eyomeleleyo yokwenza uqoqosho lwempilo kungakhathaliseki ukuba yintoni umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali. Ngenxa yoko, bagxila ngokupheleleyo kwiFed.
"Kunjengokuthi i-Goldilocks yangena endlwini yeebhere ezintathu kwaye ifumene i-porridge yayishushu kwi-oven enkulu ye-microwaves," kusho uSeth J. Masters, oyintloko yegosa lotyalo-mali lwe-Bernstein Global Management Wealth, "Ngokuqinisekileyo, kukuphela kweqondo lokushisa ngaphakathi kodwa kukho isizathu. Kunzima ukugxila kwi-microwave. "
Eli thuba linokudalwa nguDavid Shulman, uqoqosho oluphezulu lwe-UCLA Anderson Forecast, obhala inqaku ngo-1992 elibizwa ngokuthi "i-Goldilocks Economy: Ukugcina iIbears eBay." Ngaloo ndlela, uchaza uqoqosho ngexesha loLawulo lweClinton , apho uqoqosho lushisa ngokwaneleyo ukukhuthaza ukukhula koshishino, kodwa lupholile ngokwaneleyo ukugcina iFed ekusebenziseni umgaqo-nkqubo wokubambisa umgaqo- mali wokunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Oku kuthetha ukuba inzala ephakamileyo, inzuzo yabathengisi kunye namashishini abayithandiyo ngenxa yokuba iphakamisa iindleko zazo kwaye iyanciphisa iindleko zazo. Kwakuquka isihlwayo esiqilileyo, ekubeni igama elithi "ibhere" lichaza abahwebi bempahla abakholelwa ukuba imarike iyahla, okanye ingena kwiimarike zebhere .
U mzekelo
UNdikhoyo uMongameli uBill Clinton woLobhala wezeMisebenzi uRobert Reich wachaza i-1990s njengeGoldilocks ukubuyisela kwiinkomfa zeendaba ze-White House ngo-1995.
Umongameli weBafana we- Federal Reserve uBen Bernanke uqinisekisile iimarike ukuba i-US iya kuqhubeka izuze omnye unyaka weeGoldilocks zayo kwezoqoqosho kwiingxelo zayo kwiKomidi yoHlahlo lwabiwo lweNdlu ngoFebruwari 28, 2007. Oku bekukunxamnye nokuthengiswa kwemakethe ye-stock market eyabangelwa yiSweden Umongameli weSihlalo we-Reserve Alan Greenspan amazwana ukuba kukho ama-50 eepesenti amathuba okunciphisa umnotho kamva ngaloo nyaka.
Wayengunyaka omnye kuphela. UGreenspan wachaza nokuba i- US imali-mali yayinokukhathazeka okukhulu. Ilungu leBhodi leFuthi uWilliam Poole wongezelela ukuba amaxabiso empahla yamanani ayengabalulekanga, njengoko kwakungaphambi kwe- 2000 . Ukufumana okungakumbi, jonga iNkqubela yeMali ka-2007 kunye neNkcazo yeMali yeNgxaki .
IBhunga likaMongameli weeNgcebiso zezoQoqosho lingavumelani noMbiko kaMongameli wezoqoqosho ngo-2007. Yayilumkisa malunga nokuphela koqoqosho lwe-Goldilocks elalililungele ilizwe ukususela ngo-2004. Ukukhula kwangaphambili kwakuza kuqhubeka ngo-2008, kunye nokuhlaselwa ekupheleni konyaka. Kwakucingwa ukuba ukuhlawula irhafu kwe-Bush kuza kuxazulula ingxaki yecredit mortgage subprime .
Ngo-2017, i-strategist yehlabathi jikelele ye-Horizon Investment u-Greg Valliere uthe uqoqosho lufake i-Goldilocks entsha yezoqoqosho.
Uphawule ukuba kukho ukukhula okuzinzileyo kwezoqoqosho ngaphandle kokunyuka kwamaxabiso.