Isicwangciso soTyalo-mali sokuTyala koTyalo-mali lwaMazwe ngamazwe
Kule nqaku, siza kujonga i-contrarian ukutyalo-mali kwinqanaba lehlabathi kunye nendlela abatyala-mali bamazwe ngamazwe bangasebenzisa ngayo izicwangciso.
Yintoni oTyala imali?
Izicwangciso zokutsalwa kwezontrali zizame ukutyalo-mali kwi-asethi-ntengiso kwaye zizithengise xa zibuya zingene.
Ngokomzekelo, umtyalo-mali othengayo angathenga isitye kwicandelo elingenasiphelo-sithetha amandla- kunye nomlinganiselo ophantsi wexabiso-mali. Njengoko ujikelezo lwecandelo lwenzeka kwaye amaxabiso emandla aphulukana, amaxabiso okufumana amanani kwiinkampani kwi-space aya kuphakama ngenxa yamathuba amakhulu okukhula. Ixabiso le-stock power of investor liza kuphakama ngokubanzi kunamashishini jikelele ngokubonga ngokunyuka kwamanani kunye nokwanda kwamaholo.
Umgaqo-siseko wokutyalwa kwemali yeso sikhwama kukuba isihlwele seengqondo sikhokelela ekungabikho kwemali kwiimarike ezinikeziweyo. Kukho ubungqina obuninzi beendlela ezi zilandelayo emva kokubhengezwa kweengeniso xa iinkampani zihlala zifumana ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwixesha langaphambi komhla kwangokuhlwa emva kokuphela kosuku.
Ngokomzekelo, isitokhi sinokuwa ngokukhawuleza nje emva kokuba imarike ivule kwaye ngokukhawuleza ibuyisele indawo.
I-Contrarian vs. Value Investing: I- Contrarian kunye nexabiso lokutshala imali kufana nokuba izicwangciso zombini zizama ukuchonga amasheya angabalulekanga phambi kokuba zifumaniswe ngamakethi ahlukeneyo. Ngokomzekelo, izicwangciso zombini zinokukhenkcela amathuba ngokufuna iiratio ezifanelekileyo zemali ezibonisa ukuba i-stock ayinakucaluleka ngokuthelekiswa nakwiimarike jikelele.
Ezinye iingcali, njengomtyalo-mali owaziwayo uJohan Neff, bakholelwa ukuba le mibini ibinokuthi idibanise.
Ulwahlulo oluphambili kukuba uxabiso lokutyalomali lujolise ngqo kwiimpawu eziphambili, ezifana nokulinganiswa kwemali okanye ixabiso langoku lokuhamba kwemali ezayo. Ngokwahlukileyo, abatyali-mali baxhamlayo baya kujonga kwizinto zobugcisa-njengezibonakaliso ezingaphezulu kwezinto-kunye nezizathu ezizithobayo-ezifana ne-media media coverage. Abatyala-mali bezentengiselwano bazame ukufumana ipahla ezigqithisiweyo kwaye zingabalulekanga kunokuba zizinto ezingabalulekanga.
Ukufumana utyalo mali
Kukho amacebo amaninzi ahlukeneyo angasetyenziselwa ukufumana amathuba otyalo-mali, okubandakanya iindidi ezahlukeneyo zohlalutyo oluyisiseko kunye nobugcisa.
Izicwangciso eziphambili: Iziqhamo eziphambili ze-contrarian ezibandakanyekayo zibandakanya ukufumana amasheya aneemilinganiselo eziphantsi kwexabiso-mali-mali, ukulinganiswa kwexabiso lentengo-ye-cash flow, ukulinganiswa kwexabiso lentengo ukuya kweencwadi, kunye nokulinganisela kwexabiso lentengo. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ezi nkampani zivame ukuba zingabonakaliyo ngokuthelekiswa neenkampani ezinamaxabiso aphezulu asemali ukususela kwimarike ixabiso kubo. Abatyalomali banokubheka iindleko zokungazinzi, njenge-VIX, kwaye bathenge iimpahla xa iimarike zithemba kakhulu.
I " Inja zeDow " mhlawumbi isicwangciso esiqhenyenwe kakhulu se-contrarian esichaphazela ukuthenga izitoko eziphezulu ezithengayo kwi-Dow Jones Industrial Average. Amaxesha amaninzi, oku kuthetha ukuba umtyalomali uthengisa iinkampani ezixinezelekileyo ukususela kumaxabiso awayo enza izivuno eziphezulu.
Isicwangciso soBuchule: Abaninzi abatyala-mali bafaka i- analysis analysis kwi-decision-making yabo ekubeni isicwangciso sichazwe yimiba yezemali yokuziphatha ekwazi ukuhlaziywa ngokulinganisela. Ngokomzekelo, isicwangciso se-contrarian singabandakanya ukuthenga izitokhwe ngeNkcazo yamandla enxulumene nomhlaba oye wehla ngaphantsi kweengongoma ezingama-30.0 ezibonisa izimo ezingaphezulu. Injongo kukubeka imali ekubuyiseleni kwintetho enokuthi iyenzeka.
AbaThengisi bamazwe ngamazwe
Imigaqo-mali yokuthengisa imali ingasetyenziselwa kwiimarike zamazwe ngamazwe ngabafaki-zimali abafuna ukuthenga kumazwe angabalulekayo okanye kwimimandla yehlabathi.
Kuqhelekileyo ukuba amazwe onke okanye imimandla iwele ngaphakathi kwaye ingabikho ngokuthanda ixesha. Ngokomzekelo, i-crisis ye- europe ye-debt debt iholele abatyali-mali abaninzi ukuba baphephe iimpahla ze-European , ezibangele ukulinganiswa kwamanani okufumana imali. Abatyalomali abathengile amaGrike okanye ama-Irish stocks ekuphakameni kweengxaki bebenokubuyisa imbuyekezo eninzi kuloo mali. Kuyafana nokutyalomali kwe-Asia ngexesha leengxaki zemali zase-Asia kuma-1990.
Ukongeza kwiziganeko ezithile ezibangela ukulinganiswa okuncitshiswayo, abatyali-mali banokujonga kwakhona uqoqosho lwelizwe ukugqiba ukuba ngaba ngaphantsi okanye ngaphantsi kwexabiso. UWarren Buffett ukhangele ngokukhawuleza kwilizwe elipheleleyo lemali yeemarike ezidibeneyo nemveliso yayo yasekhaya. Amazwe anomlinganiselo ongaphezu kwama-90 ekhulwini athathwe kakhulu kwaye abo abangaphantsi kwama-75 ekhulwini bangabalulekanga. Le nto ingaba yindawo enkulu yokuqalisa abatyala-mali abafuna amathuba angaphandle.
Utyalo-mali lwamazwe ngamazwe luza kuba luncedo kakhulu xa ama-domestic equities avela ngaphezu kwebhodi. Kule meko, umtyalo-mali oyimali kuphela ongakwazi ukufumana amathuba amaninzi ngaphandle kokujonga ngaphandle.
Ngaphantsi
Utyalo-mali ozama ukutshala imali kwiimpahla ezingabonakaliyo kwaye zizithengise xa zibuyela kwiindawo ezibonakalayo. Kukho iindlela ezininzi eziphambili kunye nobuchwepheshe ezingasetyenziselwa ukufeza ezi njongo, ngelixa abatyali-mali banokufuna ukujonga ngaphaya kweUnited States ukufumana amathuba angcono.