Izibophezelo zikamasipala zibonelela ngokugqithiseleyo ukuvelisa isivuno kwi- Treasury yase-US kubaxhasi- mali kwiibhanki eziphezulu, kodwa ungakanani ukuhlawula ngokwemingcipheko yokuthatha isivuno esongeziweyo? Impendulo emfutshane: kungekhona nje ngokuba unokucinga.
Umngcipheko mngcipheko uphantsi
Ngokusekelwe kuphando oluqhutywe yi-ejensi yokulinganiswa kwengeniso ye-Moody's, izivuno kumabhondi kamasipala zihlawulela ngokwaneleyo abatyalo-mali imali engaphezulu.
Kwiminyaka engama-42 ubudala ephela ngo-2011, i-100% yeebhanki zikamasipala ezilinganiselweyo zanikezela zonke iinzuzo ezilindelekileyo kunye neentlawulo eziyinhloko kubatyalomali, ngelixa i-99.9% yezibophelelo ezi-Aa-rated zenze njalo. (Aaa yinqanaba eliphezulu kakhulu; Aa ngowona wesibini ophezulu). Ngokubanzi, kuphela i-0.8% yezibophelelo ze-muni zilinganise ibakala lotyalo-mali elingagqibekanga kwiminyaka elishumi yokukhutshwa.
Izibophelelo ezisemgangathweni zivame ukwenza ngcono kunezobambiso ezincinci nakwixesha loxinzelelo lwezoqoqosho ukususela ekubeni abaxhasi basemgangathweni banamandla okwaneleyo okugcina iimali zabo phantsi kweemeko ezimbi. Nangona kunjalo, nabaniki bamasipala abancinci abancinane banesiganeko esincinci se- default . Ukususela ngo-1970-2011, i-7.94% yeebhanki ezingaphantsi kwe-investment-muni bonds. (Aaa, Aaa, kunye no-A bacinga ibakala lotyalo-mali, ngelixa ama-alers asele angaphantsi kwe-investment grade, okanye isivuno esiphezulu). Nangona amaxabiso angagqibekanga kwiibhondi eziphantsi kakhulu (B nangaphantsi) zingaphezulu kwe-20%, ezi zibophelelo ezincinci kuphela zenza inxalenye encinci yemakethi jikelele.
Kwimarike yemibutho kamasipala ngokubanzi-kubini-mali-mali kunye nomvuno ophezulu - kuphela i-0.13% yazo yonke imiba elinganisweyo engaphelelanga kwiminyaka elishumi kwixesha eliphakathi kwe-1970 ukuya ku-2011. Ngeli xesha, kukho iziganeko ezingama-9 700 zilinganiswe nguMoody's. Isilinganiselo sithatha ngokuthe ngqo kwi-economically-economic year 2010-2011, nge-5.5 iziphumo ezingapheliyo ngonyaka ngeli xesha lilingana ne-2.7 ukususela ngo-1970 ukuya ku-2009.
Nangona iinqununu zikamasipala ngokuqinisekileyo zithatha isabelo saloo mngcipheko, oku bubungqina obuninzi bokuba amathuba okungafezeki kwiimarike ze-muni aphantsi kakhulu ngaphandle kweendlela ezahlukeneyo eziphambili ezenzeke ngo-2012 nangama-2013. Ukuhamba okubalulekileyo: abatyali-mali ngamabhondi ngamnye ukunciphisa ukubonakala kwakhe kokungagqibekanga ngokugxininisa kwiimfanelo eziphezulu eziphezulu.
Izizathu zeNqanaba eliPhezulu eliPhantsi
Gcinani engqondweni, intengo yesibhambathiso esingagqibekanga ayifuni ukuya kwi-zero - abatyali-mali abanokulindela umlinganiselo othile wokubuyisela. Ngophando luka-2009, inkampani yokutshala imali i-Asset Dedication inikeza isishwankathelo esilandelayo sobunzima bokungagqibekanga kwimakethi yomasipala: "... kukho inani lezinto ezikhuselekileyo kwiimarike zentengiso kamasipala ekunciphiseni amathuba amanani aphezulu aphezulu ... Ukulungiswa komgaqo-nkqubo, ukungafihli, kunye nokubeka iliso kuye kwazisa isakhiwo esithile kwimarike. I-inshurensi ye-Bond inikezela abatyalo-mali ngoluhlu lokukhusela olongezelelweyo ... Ukongezelela kwinani lezinto ezikhuselekileyo ezinceda ukuphucula amandla oomali-mali ukuvavanya izibophelelwano zikamasipala, ngokubheka ngokufanelekileyo, ukunyaniseka kwezibophelelo bekuya kubakhokelela umkhupheli ngaphandle kwemarike. Ekubeni imarike yeekhonkco iyona mvelaphi eyona nto ingcono kakhulu yoxanduva loomasipala, ukulungelelaniswa nje akunangqiqo. "
Inxaxheba yomngcipheko wamanani omdla
Nangona i-risk-setting ephantsi, iibhanki zikamasipala ziphantsi komngcipheko wezinga lomyinge , okanye umngcipheko wokunyuka kwamazinga kuya kubakho ukuhla kwamanani. Oku kunjalo ngokukodwa kubatyalomali kwiimali ezibophelelweyo kunye neengxowa -mali ezithengiswayo (ETFs) ezityala kwi-munis. Ukuba uNondyebo uvelisa phezulu (oko kuthetha ukuba amaxabiso awela) kuya kwenzeka ukuba izibophezelo zikamasipala ziya kulandela. Abatyalomali baya kubona ukuba ixabiso eliyintloko liyancipha nangona ukungaphumeleli kusekho phantsi.
Ngenxa yoko, kubalulekile ukuqinisekisa ukuba utyalo-mali owukhethayo lufanelekile ixesha lakho, iinjongo kunye nokunyamezela . Xa uhlola i-fund, ihlawula ukujonga kakuhle ukuba umphathi enze ntoni phantsi kweemarike, uluhlobo luni lokurekhoda analo, kunye nomgangatho weemali ezibekwe ngayo imali.
Umngcipheko weNtloko
Izibopheko zikaMasipala nazo zijongene nomngcipheko weentloko ezingathintekiyo, njengokuba i-default-profile default is made headlines. Umzekelo obalaseleyo wobungozi bokuqala kwenzeka ngasekupheleni konyaka we-2010 xa umhlalutyi uMeredith Whitney waya kwiiMzuzu ezingama-60 waza wachaza ukuba imeko ebuthakathakayo yezoqoqosho ingakhokelela ekubeni "i-spate" yokungafani phakathi kwabashicileli bakaMasipala. "Unokubona okungafaniyo okunga-50, okunga-50 kuya ku-100 okungafani nakakhulu, ngaphezulu," kusho uWinney. "Oku kuya kuba ngamawaka eebhiliyoni zeedola." Olu bhengezo luloyiko lwabatyalo-mali kwaye luqhube imarike kamasipala ngaphantsi kwe-6% kwiiveki ezalandelayo. Xa imarike ekugqibeleni yayisemva kweenyanga ezimbini, imarike ye-muni yayilahlekelwe phantse kwi-10% yexabiso layo ukusuka ngexesha lo dliwano-ndlebe.
Nangona iimeko ezinokuthi zibhekiselele ngexesha eliya kwenzekayo, ukuthengiswa kweemakethe ezibophelelwe ngamaspala ezinxulumene neentloko ezenzelwe ukuba zikhangele amathuba okuthenga ixesha elide.
Ngaphantsi
Umngcipheko wokuthi nayiphi ibhondi kamasipala kunye nokulinganiswa kwekhredithi ephezulu kuya kuba yinto engenakunceda, nangona kunjalo umntu obeka imali kwi-issue nganye kufuneka enze uphando olunzulu. Nangona kuncedo ukwazi ukuba ukungafihliyo kuyinto engabonakaliyo, kubalulekile ukuba ugcine engqondweni ukuba ezinye izinto ezibeka ingozi.