Indlela yokubala & Sebenzisa i-CAPE Ratio ukuphucula ukubuyisela
Ukutshala imali kwimida kunye neemeko ezikhulayo zihlala zibeka ingozi ngaphezu kokutyalomali kwiimarike zasekhaya zabasomali-basebenzi base-US, kunye nezinto ezifana nomngcipheko wezopolitiko kunye nomngcipheko wezemali ochaphazela ukulinganiswa kwemilinganiselo ngendlela enkulu. Ukuze kulungelelaniswe le mngcipheko, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqinisekise ukuba inqanaba eliphezulu lokubuyiswa okulindelekileyo, eliqhutywa yimpembelo ekhula ngokukhawuleza, iimpawu zentando yabantu, kunye nezinye izinto, ngokumalunga ne-United States.
Iindaba ezimbi kukuba ukubuyiswa okulindelweyo kunzima ukufana neeprojekthi kwiimeko ezininzi, kunikwa inani elikhulu leempembelelo. Ngokomzekelo, amaninzi amanxweme kunye namashishini asakhulayo axhomekeke kumazwe angaphandle ukuze kuqhutywe ukukhula koqoqosho, oko kuthetha ukuba umkhiqizo wabo wekhaya ("GDP") uxhomekeka kakhulu kwiindleko zangaphandle zabathengi. Oorhulumente kunye neenkampani abanakho ulawulo oluncinane phezu kwezi ntlobo zokuqhuba izinto.
Kule ngqaku, siza kujonga indlela yokulinganisa ukubuya okulindelekileyo ngokulinganisela kwexabiso lentlawulo-mali okanye umlinganiselo we-CAPE-owenza amanyathelo okuhlala ixesha elide.
Ukubala i-CAPE Ratio
Ukulinganiswa kwexabiso lentengo-mali okanye isabelo se-CAPE-kubalwa ngokuhlula ixabiso langoku lenkcazo ebanzi yemakethe ye-stock by the average price adjustment of its components over 10 years. Ngokuphindaphindiweyo amaxesha, umphindisi wokunyuka kwamaxabiso usetyenziswa kwimali nganye yonyaka ngenzuzo ngaphambi kokuhlula i-10 (ukufumana umyinge) ukwenzela ukuba kube lula ukwenza inkqubo - kuba abaphindisi bexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso bafumaneka ngokubanzi kwi-reference.
Umlinganiselo we-CAPE udinga okungenani iminyaka eyi-10 yedatha yembali, enokuba nzima ukuza kumazwe amaninzi. Phakathi kweentlanga eziphuhlisiwe, i-US, i-UK, Canada kunye neJapane yayineengxelo ezide kakhulu, ngelixa i-Austria ne-Ireland babenomfutshane kakhulu. Iimarike eziphazamisayo ezifana nelaseMalaysia, iSouth Korea kunye neThailand nazo zineengxelo ezide zengoma, ngelixa i-China kunye ne-Columbia sele zirekhode idatha efunekayo ukususela ngo-2005.
Ukusebenzisa i-CAPE Ratio
Umlinganiselo we-S & P 500 we-CAPE ongaphantsi kwe-10 uvelise ukubuyiswa kweminyaka eyi-10 engaphezulu kwe-16%, ngelixa umlinganiselo ongaphezu kwe-25 uvelise ibuyiselo ezingaphantsi kwe-4%, ngokweengxelo ezininzi zeemarike zase-US. Enyanisweni, isiphumo sinamandla kangangokuthi iimali ezinokuthengiselana -mali ("ETFs") zazisungulwa ukuze zenze ixabiso kwiinguqu zeCAPE ngokubanzi kunye naphakathi kwee-subset zeshishini. Ngokomzekelo, u-Ossiam waqalisa kwi-ETF egxile kwingcamango yokusebenzisa ukujikelezwa kwecandelo.
Iimitha ezifanayo zingasetyenziselwa kumida kunye nakwii-index equity indexes ukuze ziqikelele ukulinganiswa kwazo ezinxulumene nemimiselo yembali. Ngokubanzi, umlinganiselo we-CAPE ophakathi kwe-10 no-15 uthathwa njengento efanelekileyo, ngelixa umlinganiselo ongaphezu kwe-20 ungabonisa ukuba imarike iphezulu kwaye ingahlawulwa ngenxa yokulungiswa. Kuyafaneleka ukuba uqaphele, nangona kunjalo, ukuba iimarike ezahlukeneyo zineendlela ezahlukeneyo zokufunda, ngoko ke abatyali-mali kufuneka bajonge kwakhona iikhathaji ezikhudlwana zezithombe.
Ukuphanda i-CAPE Amathuba
Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banokufumana ngokukhawuleza amaxabiso e-CAPE kumazwe ahlukahlukeneyo ehlabathini lonke usebenzisa izixhobo zamahhala ezifana ne-Star Capital ye-Global Stock Market. Ngomhla we-Q1 2015, amazwe angabizi kwilizwe lonke ayengama-12.9, iSpain ngo-13.5, kunye ne-Norway ngo-13.7, kunye ne-Europe ephuhlisiweyo kunye neemarike ezikhulayo kwi-16.5.
Kukho izixhobo, ezifana ne-CAPERatio.com, ezinokukunceda ukubala ietriki zeesitokethi ngasinye kwiimarike.
Xa usebenzisa umlinganiselo we-CAPE, abatyali-mali kufuneka bafune ukuqinisekiswa ngezinye iintlobo zezibonakaliso kunokuba bathembele kuyo kuphela. Abanini-zimali abaninzi bakhetha ukusebenzisa umlinganiselo we-CAPE kwisikrini kumazwe okanye kumashishini athengisa kwixabiso elincinciweyo aze afune amathuba anyanzelisayo kulawo mazwe asebenzisa i- American Depositary Receipts ("ADRs") okanye ngokuthenga izitokhwe zangaphandle ngqo.
Amaphuzu athathweyo
- Abatyalomali kwimida kunye neemarike ezikhulayo zijongene nemingcipheko ephezulu kunokuba iimarike zasekhaya zinikezelwa ngengozi yezopolitiko kunye nemali.
- Umlinganiselo we-CAPE unokunceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba ukubuyela kwexesha elide elizayo kuya kukwanela ukucima loo ngozi ephezulu.
- Abatyalomali kufuneka basebenzise umlinganiselo we-CAPE ngokubambisana namanye amaxwebhu ohlalutyo kunokuba bathembele kuphela.