Uphononongo lweMinyaka yoNyaka kunye neMbuyekezo yeMakethe
Itafile ephantsi kwephepha ibonisa ukubuya kwe-S & P 500 Index kunyaka ngamnye wonyulo ukususela ngowe-1928. Ngethuba, unokubona ukuba ngowama-21 edlulileyo unyulo apho kuye kwaba neminyaka emithathu kuphela apho i-S & P 500 ukubuyela okubi ngexesha lonyaka lonyulo.
UMarshall D. Nickles, EdD, wandisa kule datha kwiphepha elibizwa ngokuba nguNgongameli weeMongameli kunye neeNkcazelo zeMpahla yeeShishini. Uphando lwakhe olunzulu lubonisa ukuba isicwangciso esinenzuzo siya kuba utyalomali ngo-Oktobha 1 wonyaka wesibini wekota yowameli kwaye uthengise ngo-Disemba 31 wesine iminyaka. Emva kokubeka idatha ukuxhasa esi sicwangciso, uyaqhubeka esithi:
"Nangona kunjalo, xa ucinga ukuba ucinga ukuba uphumelele, ufumana enye iphethini engakhombisa amathuba athile. Ngokomzekelo, olunye uhlalutyo lubonisa ukuphindaphinda okukrakra kwinqaku lorhwebo. Ngethuba lekhulu le-20 leminyaka, yonke iminyaka-elishumi kwiminyaka eyi-12 eyaphela ngomhla we "5" (1905, 1915, 1925, njl. Njl.) Yayinenzuzo! "
Ingongoma ekwenzayo yinto efanayo ukuba isifundo sokufunda esibizwa ngokuba yimali yokuziphatha sichaze ngokuphindaphindiweyo; sinokubona iipatheni, kodwa oko akuthethi ukuba bafanelekile kwizigqibo esizokwenza.
Kwisifundo esifana ne-Marshall's, iGosa eliPhambili loTyalo-mali lwe-Wells Fargo, uDean A. Junkans, i-CFA, kunye noMphathi wabo oyiNtloko wezoTyalo, uJames P. Estes, i-PhD, i-CFP (1) ibonisa ukuba umyinge wokubuya kwemarike ngonyaka wesine we-president Ixesha liphindwe kabini kwinto yokubuya ngonyaka wokuqala wenkosi.
Ngaba le datha iluncedo? Kuphela ukuba iphethini iyaqhubeka.
Ukuba ukhangele iphethini, kutheni ungazami i-Super Bowl Stock Market Predictor. Uthi: "Ukuba iqela eliphumelela kwi-Super Bowl linengcambu yalo kwiNkcazo yeSizwe yeBhola yeBhola, i-market itya kwanda. Ukuba iqela eliphumeleleyo lalivela kwi-Old Football League, i-market ithoba."
Ngaba Ufanele Uyenze Iinqunto Ngokusekelwe KwiiNkcazo Zonyaka Zonyaka?
Masithi uqeshe umcebisi-mali oqhelana nezifundo ezingentla. Bakubonisa iimbuyekezo ezigqityiweyo oza kuba nazo kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini ezedlulileyo ukuba ungene kwimarike yemasheya ngexesha leminyaka kamva yomongameli kwaye uphuma ngexesha leminyaka yokuqala.
Mhlawumbi, isicwangciso salo mcebisi siza kuqiqa kakuhle. Kusenokwenzeka nokuba ube nethemba lokuba ngowama-2008, imarike kufuneka ibe nokuphindwa kabini ukubuya kwayo ngo-2005. (Ngo-2005 i-S & P 500 Index yabuya 4.90%.)
Ngethuba lomjikelo wokhetho lonyulo luka-2008, ukuba utyalomali ngo-Oktobha 1 ka-2006, de kube ngu-Disemba 31 ka-2008, utyalo-mali lwakho lube luphantsi kwe-6.8%.
Umzekelo awuzange usebenze kumjikelezo wokhetho lonyulo luka-2008. Kubonakala ngathi i-2016 iphile kakuhle! Ngomhla ka-Oktobha 1, 2015, ukuphela konyaka-2016 kwagqitywa ukubuyisela okulungileyo.
Yintoni egcinwe ngo-2020? Ukuqiqa kwakho kukuhle njengam.
Ingxaki ngokutyalo-mali ngokusekelwe kwimizekelo yendlela yedatha: akuyona indlela efanelekileyo yokuhamba malunga nokwenza izigqibo zotyalo-mali. Kuyavakala kukuthakazelisayo, kwaye izalisekisa le nkolelo enzulu ephakamileyo yokuba abantu abaninzi banayo indlela yokuba "batshale imarike", kwaye umntu othile ngaphandle uyazi ukwenza.
Ukuba akunjalo, kungcono ukuba utshale imali ekhuselekileyo, ekhuselekileyo, equka ukuqonda ingozi kunye nokubuyela , ukudibanisa, nokuthenga iimali zendleko eziphantsi kwexesha elide, kungakhathaliseki ukuba ngubani owenza ukhetho. Okanye njengengqungquthela yokuthanda utyalo-mali ithi, "Ukutshala imali kufuneka kufane nokubukela upende owomileyo okanye ubukele utshani bukhula. Ukuba ufuna umnwabo ... uye eLas Vegas. "- UPaul Samuelson
(1) Ukhetho kunye neNtengiso: Ngaba zibandakanya? Ipapashwe ngo-Oktobha 18, 2007, kwi-Wells Fargo Update Market.
Ebhalwa nguDean A. Junkans, CFA, iGosa eliPhezulu loTyalo-mali kunye noJames P Estes, i-Ph.D., i-CFP, uMphathi oyiNtloko-mali.
Unyaka woNyaka woTywala lweeNtengiso
Unyaka wokunyuka kweemarike zeemarike kunyaka owe-1900 ubone i-PDF ekhutshelwe ihlanganiswe yi-MFS® Management Management ebizwa ngokuba yi- Primaries, ii-caucuses, kunye nokukhetho ... o , yam!
Itheyibhile Ngezantsi Ibonisa Ukubuyiselwa Kwemakethe KuNyaka ngamnye Wokunyuka ukususela ngowe-1928
Iinkcukacha ezingezantsi zivela kwi-Dimensional Funds Matrix Book.
| I-S & P 500 I-Market Market ibuyisela Ngexesha loNyaka | ||
| Unyaka | Buyela | Abaviwa |
| 1928 | 43.6% | Hoover noSmith |
| 1932 | -8.2% | Roosevelt vs Hoover |
| 1936 | 33.9% | Roosevelt vs. Landon |
| 1940 | -9.8% | Roosevelt vs Willkie |
| 1944 | 19.7% | Roosevelt vs Dewey |
| 1948 | 5.5% | Truman vs. Dewey |
| 1952 | 18.4% | Eisenhower noStevenson |
| 1956 | 6.6% | Eisenhower noStevenson |
| 1960 | .50% | Kennedy vs. Nixon |
| 1964 | 16.5% | Johnson vs. Goldwater |
| 1968 | 11.1% | Nixon noHumphrey |
| 1972 | 19.0% | Nixon noMcGovern |
| 1976 | 23.8% | UCarter kunye noF Ford |
| 1980 | 32.4% | Reagan vs. Carter |
| 1984 | 6.3% | Reagan vs Mondale |
| 1988 | 16.8% | Bush vs Dukakis |
| 1992 | 7.6% | UClinton noBush |
| 1996 | 23% | Clinton ngokumelene neDole |
| 2000 | -9.1% | Bush vs Gore |
| 2004 | 10.9% | Bush vs Kerry |
| 2008 | -37% | Obama noMcCain |
| 2012 | 16% | Obama kunye noRomney |
| 2016 | ++ | Iqonga kunye noClinton |
| 2020 | ? | ? |