Kutheni abaTyalo-mali kufuneka bajonge i-P / E iiRatios kwi-Context
Indlela yokulinganisa ixabiso
Indlela eyaziwayo kakhulu yokulinganisa ixabiso lixabiso lomvuzo-mali , okanye umlinganiselo we- P / E, omele amaninzi emvuzo otyalwa ngumtyalo-mali ukuba abe nesitokisi. Umzekelo, umlinganiselo we-20x we-P / E uthe ukuba abatyali-mali bahlawula amaxesha angama-20 yenkxaso yemali yonyaka. Ukuhamba phambili kwe-P / E kuthatha ingqalelo ukukhula kwimivuzo ekulindelekileyo kwiinyanga ezili-12 ezizayo, oku kuthetha ukuba bathambekele ekubeni bangaphantsi kwereyithi ye-P / E yeenkampani ezikhulayo.
Ezi ratios ze-P / E kufuneka ziqwalaselwe kumxholo. Umlinganiselo we-100x P / E ungabonakala uphakamileyo, kodwa ukuba inkampani iya kuphinda iphindwe kabini ngemali yawo yonke imali, inokuba yinto enengqiqo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, inkampani enomlinganiselo we-5x P / E ingabonakala ingabizi, kodwa ukuba ingeniso iwa ngokukhawuleza, kusenokuba yinto enjalo. Isilinganiselo se-P / E yenkampani sinokutshintsha ngokuxhomekeke kumbango wangaphandle, njengamaxabiso enzala, kwaye abatyali-mali bazimisele ukuhlawula ngaphezulu ukufumana amanani ngokubanzi.
Xa uhlalutya ilizwe lonke, abatyalo-mali basemhlabeni wonke bajonge i-index ye-index ye-P / E. Umzekelo omhle uza kukhangela umlinganiselo we-S & P 500 we-P / E ukugqiba ukuba iimpahla zase-US zigqityiwe okanye zingabalulekanga. Umlinganiselo we-P / E olungelelaniswa ngokujikelezayo, okanye umlinganiselo we-CAPE , uvame ukusetyenziswa kule meko kuba i-account inflation .
Nangona oku kuthobekile e-US, kunokuba nempembelelo enkulu kwiimarike ezikhulayo ezijongene nemilinganiselo ephezulu yokunyuka kwamaxabiso.
Yintoni yokuqhuba umqhubi
Iirhafu zexabiso-mali zingaba luncedo xa zijonge ukulinganiswa, kodwa azixeleli ibali elipheleleyo kwaye kufuneka liqwalaselwe kumxholo. Enyanisweni, akukho ukulungiswa phakathi kwesilinganiselo se-P / E ye-stock index kunye nembuyekezo yalo nyaka olandelayo. Ixabiso lingaba ngaphezu komyinge kwiminyaka ethile, kodwa oko akuthethi ukuba ukulungiswa kusondele. Abatyalomali abaza kusekela izigqibo zabo ngokupheleleyo ngokulinganisela bangaphuthelwa kwiimarike ezinkulu zeenkomo.
Amazwe amaninzi ahlala ngokugqithiseleyo okanye angabalulekanga ngokusekelwe kwii-ratios ze-P / E. Ngokomzekelo, iUnited States ithambekele ukulawula ii-P / E eziphezulu kwiimarike ezininzi ezikhulayo nangona ixabiso lokukhula lancinci. Isizathu kukuba abatyalo-mali bazimisele ukuhlawula i-premium yokukhula nokuzinza kwemakethe yase-US. Ngamanye amazwi, ukubuyiswa okutshintshiselwe ingozi kunokuba kufaneke ngakumbi xa kuthelekiswa neendleko ze-US ezinobungozi obuphantsi kweemarike ezikhulayo.
Iirhafu zexabiso-mali ziyakuthi zihluthwe okanye zichaswe ngokusekelwe kumgaqo- mali wezemali . Emva kwenkathazo yezimali ka-2008, amazwe amaninzi athuthukile anciphisa amazinga abo anomdla kwi-zero kwaye azisa iinkqubo zokunciphisa ezithintekayo.
Amanyathelo angavumelekanga abatyalo-mali abatyaliweyo ukuba babe nelilinganayo, okubangela ukungalingani kwemfuno / ukufunwa kwemfuno. Oku kungalingani kuya kubangela ukuba kufikeleleke kwiziphumo eziphezulu ze-P / E ezicinga ukuba i-earnings yahlala enye.
Indlela yokuhlalutya iMakethe yeMaphandle
Kukho iindlela ezimbini ezibalulekileyo zokutyala abatyala-mali bamazwe ngamazwe xa kuziwa ekujongeni ngaphaya kwamaxabiso okufumana imali-mali ukuxabisa iimarike zomhlaba wonke.
Into ebaluleke kakhulu yokuthatha inxaxheba kubaluleke kakhulu. Ulungelelaniso lwezoqoqosho phakathi kwamazwe amaninzi luye lwawa ngamazinga abo aphantsi kunamashumi eminyaka, njengangokuqala-ngo-2018, okwenzela ithuba elide lokunciphisa iphothifoliyo kunye nokutyalomali kwehlabathi. Ukuba ukulingana kwelinye inxalenye yehlabathi likhulu, ukudibanisa kunceda ukuqinisekisa ukuba ukulinganiswa okuphantsi kwezinye iindawo zehlabathi kunceda ukukhupha nayiphi na ingozi kwaye mhlawumbi ibuyise iifotfolio kwithuba.
Inxalenye yesibini ekuthathiweyo ukujonga umongo we-P / E ratios. Ukuba umlinganiselo weP / E okanye we-CAPE welizwe uvela phezulu, abatyalo-mali kufuneka babhekise kwizinga lokukhula lokufumana imali kunye nemigaqo-mali ekhoyo ukuyibeka kumxholo. Ukuba ukulinganiswa kubonakala kuncinci, abatyali-mali bangathanda ukujonga ngokufanayo kwimizila yemigaqo-nkqubo yemali kunye nezinye izinto ezinokuthi zibe negalelo kumanani aphantsi. Imiba yengozi yezoqoqosho okanye yezoqoqosho nayo ibalulekile ukuqwalasela.
Iirhafu zexabiso-mali yindlela enhle yokuvavanya ukulinganiswa kwenkampani kumgangatho ngamnye, apho kuthelekiswa kwezoshishino kufumaneka lula kwaye ukuguquguquka kwangaphandle kungaphelelanga, kodwa bangaphantsi kwexesha xa bejonga kumazwe ahlukeneyo. Kule meko, abatyali-mali kufuneka babe nomxholo.