Ziziphi Iingxaki Ezilishumi?

Uqoqosho lukaMorgan Stanley olu-10 oluvela kwiChina

UMorgan Stanley waqulunqa igama elithi " Fragile Five " ngo-Agasti ka-2013 ukumela uqoqosho olukhulayo lweemarike ezi-5 eziye zaxhomekeke kakhulu kwi-investment engenakuthenyaniswa kwamanye amazwe ukuze zixhase izicwangciso zazo zokukhula - iTurkey, iBrazil, iNdiya kunye neMzantsi Afrika. Ukususela ngoko, la mazwe aphakathi kobunzima bomhlaba obuninzi obuqhuba ngayo imali ngenxa yokunyuka kwamazinga omhlaba okwenza ukuba kube nzima nakakhulu ukuxhasa iingxelo zee-akhawunti zangoku.

Emva kokutshatyalaliswa kweChina kwe-yuan phakathi no-2015, abahlalutyi bakaMorgan Stanley babonisa amazwe angaphezulu alongezelelweyo anokujongana neengxaki ezizayo. I-Bloomberg iqulunqe le "I-Ten-Trouble" kwaye iquka iKolombia, iChile, iPeru, iSouth Korea, iThailand, iRashiya , iSingapore, iTaiwan, iBrazil kunye neMzantsi Afrika. Lawa mazwe anesithuba esiphezulu sokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokukhuphisana kwamanye amazwe kunye neTshayina kwaye ibe yinto ejongene nentsholongwane kwimfazwe yemali.

Kule nqaku, siza kujonga kwizinto ezibizwa ngokuba zineenkxalabo ezilishumi nokuba ngaba abatyali-mali bamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka bawaphephe la mazwe.

Izingozi eziqhutywe ngaphandle

I-China ibonisa indawo ephezulu yokuthunyelwa ngaphandle kweendawo ezininzi zezoqoqosho, ezibandakanya phantse ama-40% eMzantsi Afrika ekuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye ne-30% ye-South Korea yokuthumela ngaphandle ngo-2014. Abasemagunyeni baseTshayina bathatha amanyathelo amanyathelo okukhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho, kubandakanya ukungenelela kwimarike yemali, Ixabiso lentsikelelo elincinci, kunye nokuhlaziywa kwemali , kukho inkxalabo ekhulayo yokuba ukukhathazeka kwezoqoqosho kwelizwe kunokuba kunzima kakhulu kunezoqoqosho ezilindelekileyo.

Uninzi lweziThathaka eziThatywayo ziphinde zithumele iimpahla ezifanayo njengeChina kumakhasimende angaphandle kwamanye amazwe. Ngokulinganisela kwe-yuan ephantsi, iimpahla zesiTshayina ziya kuba zincinci kuba bathengi kwaye zibeke uxinzelelo kwi-Ten Trouble ukuze zizenzele iimali zabo okanye umngcipheko wokunciphisa amazwe angaphandle kunye nokukhula koqoqosho.

Ezi zintlukwano zingakhokelela kwimfazwe yemali yemarike ephumayo esele yenzeke kwiindawo ezifana neKazakhstan.

Iindaba ezilungileyo kukuba ezininzi zezo mngcipheko ziye zanciphisa ukunyuka ukuya ngo-2017. Uqoqosho lwe-China luye lwafumana ukukhula okungaphezulu kunokuba kulindeleke kunye nokukhathazeka kwimiba yayo yebhanki yesithunzi sele ikhuhliwe yimilinganiselo ephezulu yokubolekisa. Nangona kunjalo, kukho imingcipheko ebalulekileyo ekhoyo kwaye abatyali-mali kufuneka bahlale beqaphela ukusebenza kwelizwe kunye namanyathelo okukhuthaza ukukhula okuzinzile.

Ukutshatyalaliswa kweNkunzi

I-Troubled Ten ingajongana neengozi ezibonwa yi-Fragile Five emva ko-2013, njengoko iimarike eziphuhlisiwe zikhangele ukuphakamisa inzala. Ngamazinga asekuhlaleni ama-Federal Reserve, inkunzi inokukhishwa kwiimarike ezikhulayo kwiiklip ezikhawulezayo, njengoko iidola zase-US zibe zikhangele ngakumbi kwihlabathi jikelele. Iimarike ezininzi ezikhulayo zilungelelwanga ngenxa yolu tshintsho olunikezwa ukuxhomekeka kwabo kutyalo-mali lwangaphandle.

Ukuwa kwezinto eziphathekayo kuye kwafaka uxinzelelo kwiinkoliso ezininzi ezixhamlileyo eziphezulu. Ngokomzekelo, i- Peru yiyona ntengiso enkulu yehlabathi yethusi, ngexabiso lobhedu eliwela phantse kwi-20% phakathi kukaJanuwari no-Agasti ka-2015 yedwa.

Utyalo-mali kweli lizwe liwile kunye nexabiso lempahla elinikezelwa ngethemba elincinci lentlawulo, eliye labeka uxinzelelo kwilizwe lemali kunye noqoqosho.

Iindaba ezilungileyo kukuba i-Federal Reserves ijubane lokunyuka kwezinga lentengo liye linciphisa, eliye lanika ixesha loqoqosho lokuzilungelelanisa. Ngelo xesha, uqoqosho lwaseChina olukhula luye lwaxhasa amanani entengo ehamba ngo-2017 nangaphezulu. Ukunyuka kwe- European Central Bank (ECB) ukukhupha iiprogram zokukhuthaza iifom, nokuba kunjalo, kunokukhokelela ekubhathatyeni kwamashishini athengayo kwimarike ekupheleni kwe-2017 no-2018.

Iingqalelo zotyalo-mali

Ubunzima obunzima obujongene nobunzima bezoqoqosho kwiindawo ezizayo, njengoko bezama ukukhuphisana nokuthengisa eChina, kunye nokuncipha kwezoqoqosho. Ngenxa yoko, abatyalo-mali basemhlabeni wonke bafuna ukuqikelela xa befaka imali kwezoqoqosho-mali, ngelixa mhlawumbi bebethelwa nayiphi na indawo ekhoyo ekhoyo, eneenkcukacha zorhwebo, iinqwelo zemali, iinqwelo zokuthengisa okanye ezinye iindlela ezifanayo.

Amaphuzu athathweyo

• U-Morgan Stanley's Fragile Five uye wandisa kwi-Ten Trouble emva kokunyuka kwe-China ukunyuka kwe-yuan kunye nempembelelo yalo kuqoqosho lwehlabathi.
• I-Troubled Ten ibonakaliswe ukuthunyelwa kwabo ngaphandle kweChina kunye neengxaki ezinokuthi zihambelane neenqwelo-moya ezinkulu emva kwezinga eliphezulu lemali e-US
• Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe banokufuna ukucaca ngokucacileyo kwezi currencies kunye noqoqosho kuze kube yilapho umfanekiso wezoqoqosho ucaca kwiminyaka ezayo.