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I-Elliott Wave Theory yasungulwa nguRalph Nelson kwiminyaka ye-1920. UNelson wathola ukuba iimarike zezemali zinempawu zokuhamba eziphindaphinda ngokuphindaphinda. Ezi ntshukumo zibizwa ngokuba ngamaza. I-Elliott Wave Theory iyisifundo esibanzi nesicatshukisayo, sithatha iingcali zeminyaka ukuba zifunde. Nangona kukho ubunzima, kukho izinto ze-Elliott Wave ezinokufakwa ngokukhawuleza, kwaye zinokukunceda ukuphucula izakhono zokuhlalutya kunye nexesha lokurhweba.
01 Iingqungquthela zokuHlola kunye nokuCwangcisa
Amaxabiso ahamba kwiimvula ezingabonakaliyo kunye nokulungisa. Ukwazi ukuba yiyiphi ingqungquthela enokuthi iqhubeke, kwaye yintoni amaza asandul 'ukutshatyalaliswa, unceda ukuqikelela ukuba ixabiso liyakwenza ntoni ngokulandelayo.
Umtsalane oshukumisayo ngumendo omkhulu wokuhamba, kunye neendlela ezihambelanayo. I-uptrend iyaqhubeka ifikelela kumaxabiso aphezulu kuba ukunyuka okuphezulu kunkulu kunokuba kuqhube phansi okukhoyo phakathi kwala majelo amakhulu.
Amagagasi okulungisa amashishini amancinci ayenzeka ngaphakathi.
Urhweba kwicala lamagagasi ashukumisayo, kuba ixabiso lenza iyona nto ihamba phambili kuyo. Amagagasi ashukumisayo anika ithuba elingcono lokwenza inzuzo enkulu kunamagagasi okulungisa.
Amagagasi okulungisa asetyenziselwa ukungena kwi-trade trend, ngenzame yokuthabatha isangqa esilandelayo, esikhulu, esinomtsalane.
Thenga ngexesha lokutshintshisa okanye ukuguqulwa kwamagagasi ngexesha lokukhupha, kwaye ukhwela ingqungquthela esondeleyo njengokuba kuthatha intengo ephakamileyo. Mfutshane ukuthengiswa ngexesha lamagagasi okulungisa kwi-downtrend ukuya kwinzuzo evela kwingqungquthela elandelayo.
Iingcamango zengqungquthela kunye nokulungiswa kwamagagasi nazo zisetyenziselwa ukuchonga xa iimeko zitshintsha indlela . Ukuba ityati yentengo ibonisa ukunyuka okukhulu kumgca, kunye namaza okulungisa amancinci phakathi, kwaye emva koko ukunyuka okukhulu kunokuba kwenzeke, oko kukubonisa ukuba umphezulu ungaphaya. Ekubeni iimpembelelo zenzeka kwinqalathiso ehamba phambili, enkulu intshukumo eya kwi-downside-eyona mkhulu kunamagagasi okulungisa, kwaye inkulu njengamaza aphakanyisiwe aphezulu-ibonisa ukuba umgangatho sele uphantsi.
Ukuba umgangatho uphantsi, kunye nomswakama omkhulu ophezulu-owona mkhulu njengamaza aphantsi kwangaphambili ngexesha lokudlulela-ke ngoko umgangatho uye ngoku kwaye abathengisi baya kujonga ukuthenga ngexesha lokutshintsha okulandelayo.
02 Umendo kunye noLungiso lweeNdleko zoLuntu
UNelson wafumanisa ukuba xa i-uptrend iyaqhubeka, inamanani amathathu aphezulu ahambayo, aguqulwa kunye nezilungiso ezimbini. Oku kudala umzekelo wokutshilwa kwe-five: umtsalane, ukulungiswa, ukunyanzeliswa, ukulungiswa kunye nomnye umtsalane. Amagquma amahlanu abhalwe ngomsinga omnye ngomgca wesihlanu, ngokulandelanayo.
I-uptrend ilandelwa ngamagagasi amathathu aphantsi: isishukumiseko, isilungiso siphezulu, kwaye enye ishukumisele. La maza abizwa ngeA, B, neC
UNelson wabuye wafumanisa ukuba ezi ntshukumo ziyi-fractal, oku kuthetha ukuba iphethini livela kumaxesha amancinci aninzi . Ngokomzekelo, umtsalane wokuqala wokunyusa umgangatho ophakamileyo ngaphakathi kwiretshi yansuku zonke yenziwa ngamagquma amahlanu kwidatha yehora. Amagagasi okulungisa ayenamagumbi amancinci amathathu, ukuba ajongwa kwixesha elincinane lexesha.
Le patrato iphethini isithuba semashumi eminyaka, kunye neenguqu ezincinci zepateni ezibonakalayo kwiminithi eyodwa okanye kwiikhathi zeshayi .
Njengokuba amagagasi angabonakaliyo kunye nolungiso oluncedo ancedisa ukuba ungene nini kumashishini, kwaye kwindlela ehamba ngayo, le ntengo yexabiso ingazenza okufanayo. Kucinga ukuba kwakukho nje ukuhamba okuhamba phambili-umtsalane oshukumisayo-ukulungiswa kuya kulandelwa. Ukuba ukulungiswa kwinqanaba eliqhelekileyo liya kuvela emanzini amathathu: i-drop, i-rally encinane, kwaye enye i-drop. Sebenzisa le nto ukuphucula ixesha lokurhweba ngokulinda ukuhla kwesibini. Ukungena ekunene xa ixabiso liqala ukulahla okokuqala ngethuba elide, njengokuba olunye uhla luyeza.
Ngokufanayo, xa sele kukho iindawo ezintathu ezihamba phambili, ukugqithiswa kusenokuba kufutshane. Ingqungquthela yomngcipheko kuya kwinqanaba liza kuqinisekisa ukuba ixabiso lingahle liye lisezantsi kwaye impela iphezulu.
Eli phethini lenzeke kwiimarike ezithengiswa ngokubanzi kunye nomthamo ophezulu, njenge- SPDR S & P 500 ETF (SPY) . Umzekelo kunzima ukubona, okanye kungenzeki, kwiisitokisi ezizimeleyo ezixhomekeke ekuhambeni ngokusekelwe ekuthengeni nasekuthengiseni abantu abambalwa kuphela.
03 Uhlobo lolungiso oluqhelekileyo
Xa kuthengwa kulungiso ngexesha lokugqithisa okanye ukuthengiswa kwiindawo ezilungelelanisiweyo , kuyakunceda ukwazi ukuba lukhulu kangakanani ukulungiswa.
Ngokusekelwe kumzekelo wesantya wokutshangatshangiswa, umtshini omnye ngumsantsa wokuqala wokutshintshela umkhonto kunye nomtshini ombini ukulungiswa kokuqala. I-Wave emithathu iyisisongelo esilandelayo, ilandelwa ngongqungquthela olulungileyo kunye nomswakama osihlanu.
Ngokusekelwe kuphando lukaNelson, inqabileyo ephindwe ngamaphesenti angama-60 ubude bombane. Ukuba enye ingqungquthela iqhubela i-$ 1, kwaye ukutshintshisa ezimbini kuya kubonakala ukuhla kwexabiso malunga ne $ 0.60. Ukuba kungukuqala kwe-downtrend, kunye nomsindo omnye ube ngu-$ 2, ukulungiswa ukuya kutsho kudla ngo-1.20.
Iingoma ezimbini zilandelwa ngotyikitya elinesibindi ezintathu. Ingqungquthela yesithathu yendlela edlalwa yinto enkulu kunazo zonke, ngokuqhelekileyo inkulu kunokuba iyatshalise enye. Izabelo ezine zilandelayo, kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo zibe ngama-30 ukuya kuma-40 ekhulwini ubungakanani bokutshangatshaniswa kathathu. Ngokomzekelo, ukuba ukutshangatshangiswa kweentathu kuhlanganiswe i-$ 3, ixabiso lingahle lilahle i $ 0.90 ukuya kwi-1.20 engama-four. Ingcamango efanayo iyaba yinyaniso ye-downtrend.
Le miba ibonwe ngaphezu kwamashishini amaninzi kunye neendlela. Ulungiso lunokuba lincinci okanye lukhulu kunomlinganiselo kwintengiso enye. Nangona kunjalo, nokuba neqondo elithile malunga nokuba lukhulu kangakanani ulungiso oluya kubakho lunokunceda ukuphucula ixesha lokuthengisa .
04 Hlanganisa iMigqaliselo emithathu
Cinga ukugcina umgca wecala ngalinye kwisakhiwo sobume bonke. Ngokomzekelo, emva kwendlela yokutshangatshaniswa emihlanu ukuya kwinqanaba elingaphambili, ukuhla kweentathu ezinkulu kulandelwa rhoqo. Ukujonga ulwalathiso lwamagagasi ashukumisayo kuya kubonisa ukuba utshintsho lwendlela luya kwenzeka, kwaye loo mqondiso iyomelele xa ihlanganiswe ngumzekelo wesishukumisi-ntshukumo emihlanu okanye iphethini yokulungiswa kwe-wave-wave.
Iingcamango ezintathu ze-Elliott Wave zinokuphucula izakhono zokuhlalutya zabahwebi okanye zithuthukise ixesha labo loorhwebo, kodwa akukho ngaphandle kweengxaki zalo. Le ngcamango ingaba nzima ukufaka isicelo, njengoko kungekho lula ukululalisa iipateni ezijikelezayo ezintlanu nezithathu. Umzekelo kwakhona awukho rhoqo kwiimpahla ezikhoyo, kodwa kunokusebenza kuphela kwiimpahla ezinokuthengiswa kakhulu ezingenakukwazi ukuthenga okanye ukuthengisa abathengisi abambalwa kuphela. Iingcamango zengqungquthela yokuguquka kunye nokulungiswa kusebenza kuzo zonke iimarike kunye nexesha elifanelekileyo, nangona kunjalo, lingasetyenziselwa nokuba i-theory yeendlela ezihlanu kunye neyesithathu zentengo yefuthe ayikho.