Ngubani oyisebenzisayo kwaye yintoni injongo?
Ngamanye amazwi, abalandeli be-market hypothesis abakwaziyo ukukholelwa ukuba iibhilile ezingama-100 zilele malunga nokuthatha, mhlawumbi ngobuchwephesha, okanye umtyalo-ntengiso.
Oku kuvela kwimbali eyaziwayo yiprofesa yezemali kunye nomfundi ofumana i-bill eyi-100 elele phantsi.
Njengoko umfundi eyeka ukuyithatha, uprofesa uthi, "Musa ukukhathazeka ukuba ngaba ngokwenene ibhilidi eyi-100, bekungekho."
Kutheni i-hypothesis efanelekileyo kwimarike ithi iimarike zisebenza kakuhle?
I-hypothesis efanelekileyo yeemarike ithi ukufumana ulwazi olutsha iindaba zifakwe ngokukhawuleza kumaxabiso okugcina. Amakholwa athi i-market iyasebenza ngokukhawuleza ukuba ifake yonke into eyaziwayo ukuba akukho mali yokuhlalutya inokunika umda phezu kwazo zonke izigidi zabanye abatyali-mali abanakho ukufikelela kuzo zonke iinkcukacha ezifanayo.
Uphando oluxhasa ukuxhomekeka kweemarike ezisebenzayo kubonisa ubungqina obugqithiseleyo kangangokuba nangona kunjalo ukungahambelani nokungahambisani nokuziphatha kwamanani e-stock, i-market ayiyi kudala amathuba okurhweba abenza utyalo-mali ukuba bafumane ingeniso engafanelekanga yokubuyiswa.
I-hyppothesis efanelekileyo kwimarike ithintela njani utyalo-mali lwam?
Emva kokuba i-Hypothesis eYilungileyo yeMveliso yaqulunqwa, ukuthatha inxaxheba kwimali yenkcazo yenyuka kakhulu.
Emva koko, ukuba abatyali-mali abaqeqeshiweyo abanalo inzuzo kwaye bengayibethe "imarike," ngoko, kutheni umntu ukuba ahlawule imali ephezulu yokulawula kubo enethemba lokwenza ngcono? Ngomgudu wokuphepha ukugcinwa kwengqondo, abaninzi abatyala-mali bathatha isigqibo sokuba kungcono ukuba "iimarike" nje ngeengxowa-mali.
Ukuthenga iimali zenkcazo kunye nokulandela into ebizwa ngokuba yi- Modern Portfolio Theory icetyiswa ngabacebisi abaninzi bezezimali banamhlanje. Ukunciphisa umrhumo kubangela ukuhlanganiswa okukhulu kunye nexabiso elikhulu lotyalo-mali emva kwexesha.
Ukuba akunakwenzeka ukubetha imarike, kutheni abantu abaninzi bezama?
Ngokwemibiko enye, kuphela i-10% yemali yokuthengisa kwi-stocks ivela "kubathengi abalulekayo" kwaye enye i-60% ivela kwi-investing and quantitative investment kodwa ukujonga ngokukhawuleza kwiimali ezininzi kwiimarike ezininzi zeemveliso ezizama ukubonisa i-market hyppothesis engalunganga.
Abachasene nale ngcamango babuza, kutheni i-marketke ihlala ingenakucatshulwa kwiminyaka emininzi emva kokunciphisa umnotho? Ngokuqinisekileyo, ekuhambeni kwexesha elifutshane kungenakuhlawuliswa kodwa kwiminyaka emininzi?
Enye imbono kukuba i-market "ayikwazi kakuhle." Umtyalo-mali oqhelekileyo akayi kukwazi ukubetha imarike kodwa ukuba ibhanki enkulu iphosa imali eyaneleyo kunye nekhompyutheni amandla kumzamo, baya kufumana impumelelo. Le ngqungquthela ukuba kutheni ukurhweba kwekhompyutheni kwaza kulawulo lwentengiso.
Abaxhasi beengxelo zeemarike ezichanekileyo besenokuthi imimiselo engentla ihlawuliswa yengozi. Umtyalo-mali oyithengisi-propati owathengileyo ipropati phantsi kwe-2009 yemali-mhlaba wenza inzuzo enhle ngenxa yengozi ababeyithatha.
Umthengisi ophakamileyo ophezulu akanalo ingqalelo ukuba isitokisi siya kuphakama okanye siphantsi kwimeko yemizuzu okanye iiyure ukwenzela ukuba izinga labo liphezulu. Ukuba benza imali, inkokhelo yengozi eyongeziweyo.
Kwakhona, i-hypothesis yeemarike esebenzayo ayithethi ukuba iimarike zinengqiqo, okanye ukuba zihlala zithengisa izinto ngokuchanekileyo. Ngethuba elifutshane, utyalo-mali lunokuthi lube ngaphezu kwexabiso (cinga i-tech stocks ngo-1999, okanye i-real estate ngo-2006) okanye ngaphantsi kwexabiso (cinga ngamanani e-stock in March 2009) ngokusekelwe kwintembelo-mali kunye nokuzimisela kwabo ukwamukela umngcipheko.
Ngexesha elingaphezu kwexesha elide, nangona kunjalo, ixabiso lentengo-mali liya kubonisa ngokuchanekileyo ukukhula okufunyenweyo kwimivuzo yabo.
Iingcamango zeemarike ezichanekileyo ziye zixubusha ingxoxo phakathi kwezemfundo eziphuhlisayo ukusuka ekuqaleni kwawo-1960. Zonke iinkcukacha zedata kwinto yokuba utyalo-mali ixesha elide liyiqhinga elincinci kakhulu kwaye uzama ukuthenga imali ngokukhawuleza.
Oko kungabonakalisa ukuba kukho enye i-hypothesis efanelekileyo kwimarike kunokuba abantu abafuna ukuhamba nabo bafuna ukuyeka.