Xa uWarren Buffett uthetha, abatyali-mali bavame ukuphulaphula. IBuffett yaseBerkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) ithengisa iinkampani ezingabonakaliyo ukuba zibambe ixesha elide, kwaye phakathi ko-1965 no-2016, le nkampani yabuyisela i-208 yeepesenti ukuya kubalimi bayo, ngokungafani ne-S & P ye-9.7 yeepesenti yokubuya. Imbali yexesha elide le-Nebraska ye-billionaire yempumelelo iye yamenza i-moniker "I-Oracle ye-Omaha," kwaye abatyali-mali abaninzi baxhomekeke kuwo onke amazwi ukuze baqonde ukuphumelela kwimarike.
Enye yeengcaphuno ezidumileyo zikaBuffett "Yiba noloyiko xa abanye bekratshi, bekratshi xa abanye bekwesaba." Le ngqutyana yokutsalwa kwengqiqo isiluleko se-contrarian-ekucebiseni ukuba, ngokukodwa, ukuchasene nokutya okutyalo. Kodwa ukuphunyezwa kwesi sicwangciso kunzima kunokuba kubonakale.
Ukuqonda indlela amaMakethi aqhuba ngayo
Iimarike zotyalo-mali zihamba. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-Stock, ukuphakama, ukuwa, uze uhlawule. Ukutshintsha kweemali zentengiso kunye neendleko zempahla yentengo: Njengoko amaxabiso aphakama, abatyali-mali abaninzi baya kubona oku kuzuzwa kweemarike, bavuyiswe, baze bagxume kwi-bandwagon ngokuthulula imali kwimarike. UBuffett ubonisa ukuba abatshali-mali ababuyiselwayo babuyela "njengenzondelelo," befuna ukuzuza kwiimarike ezithengayo.
Abo batyalo-mali abanobukratshi abaxoshe imali yokunyuka kwamasheya batyelela ukugqithisa into ebaluleke kakhulu yokuthengwa kwee-stocks: Ixabiso. Kungakhathaliseki ukuba kuthengisa imarike ebanzi, ukuba uhlawula phezulu ixabiso lesitokisi okanye isikhwama, unokulahlekelwa yimali xa iimarike zilungisa kwaye ixabiso libuyela emhlabeni.
Yiyo leyo nto ebangela ukuba uBuffett axwayise ngokukrakra xa atyala imali.
I-Stock Market Imilinganiselo yexabiso
Kwimakethe yokunyuka kwamasheya, ixabiso lexabiso leempahla ludla. Ngokomzekelo, kwiminyaka engama-30 edlulileyo, abatyali-mali bahlawule uluhlu lwamanani kwidoli enye ye-earnings, njengoko kulinganiswa nomlinganiselo we - Price Revenue (PE) .
Ukususela kumlinganiselo ophantsi we-PE wama-11.69 ngo-Dec 1988 ukuya kwinani eliphakamileyo lalingama-122.39 ngoMeyi 2009, eli lixabiso lexabiso lemarike ye-stock market liyi-precursor ukuya kumaxabiso athengisa amasheya.
Iimpawu ezikhoyo eziphezulu ze-PE ziqikelela ukuba ixabiso lentengo elisezantsi lizayo. Ukukrakra, ukubuyisela-abatshali-mali ukuthenga kwii-stocks ezixabiso kakhulu banokufumana ukubuyiswa okuphantsi.
Emva koko xa intengo yesityeji ijika ijikeleze kwaye iya kwizantsi, kwaye abatyali-mali batyhakile kwaye besabe. Abo batyali-mali abanjalo abathengayo kwiimarike zeemarike bajikeleza baza bathengise ngexesha lokutsalwa kweemarike ezalandelayo. Aba batyali-mali bathetha oko uBuffett esilumkisa ngoku: Ukuthengisa ngesaba.
Njengamaxabiso emakethi awa, amaxabiso e-PE awela, kwaye amasheya ahlawule. Abo batyali-mali abazithengayo xa abanye bekwesaba, ngokuqhelekileyo bathenga iimpahla ezingabalulekanga, eziphantsi kwe-PE kunye nokufumana imbuyekezo ephezulu kwixesha elizayo.
Ubulumko bukaBuffett bubukeka ngokwenene, njengoko izitokisi ezincinci ezisezantsi zikhuphe phezulu kwizinto eziphezulu ze-PE ezihamba phambili kwaye ngokuphambene. Ngoko ke, ukuphumeza isiluleko seBuffett, ungashukunyiswa sisihlwele. Xa iimpahla zixabiseke kakhulu, qaphela kwaye ungagxumi kwiimarike kunye nazo zonke iirhafu zakho zotyalo-mali. Njengoko ixabiso lemarike ye-stock market liwa, yiba nesibindi kwaye uthabathe izabelo zokuthengiswa.
Konke kunengqiqo ekuqaleni.
Kodwa le ngcebiso ibonakala iphikisana nolunye udidi oluthile lokwenza utyalo-mali.
"Musa ukulwa neTape"
"Musa ukulwa ne-tape" enye inkcazo yeengcebiso zengxowamali endala, ngokukodwa isilumkiso sabarhwebi ukuba bangathengisisani nomgangatho. Lo bulumko bubonisa ukuba ukunyuka kwama-stocks kuya kuqhubeka ukunyuka, kwaye ukuwa kweempahla kuza kuqhubeka nokuhla. Ngaloo ndlela, njengoko izitokisi zikhuphuka, ukuba uqhuba "ungalwi neengcebiso", uya kuqhubeka ukuthenga, kungakhathaliseki ukuba umlinganiselo wemarike ye-PE.
Leli gama lichaza ukukhawuleza isicwangciso sokutyalomali.
Kuphezulu, icebiso likaBuffett libonakala liphikisana neqhinga lokuqalisa. Sekunjalo, kukho enye inxalenye. Ubulumko bukaBuffett lukhokelela abatyali-mali ukuba batyale imali kwizinto ezingaphantsi kwexabiso okanye izinto ezixabisekileyo ezifanelekileyo. "Abayilwi ne-tape" ikampu icebisa ukutyalomali ngexesha nje ukuba amanani e-stock akhuphuke.
Njengamaxabiso esitokisi aphakama, kwinqanaba lokuqala lemarike yenkomo, amanani esitokisi angabonakali. Kule ngxaki kumjikelo wezoqoqosho, zombini i-Buffett kunye nezicwangciso zokukhawuleza ziyavumelana.
Kamva, njengoko amaxabiso emakethe e-stock market aqhubeka ephakama, kwaye anqabile ukubaluleka kwawo, abatyali-mali bathambekele ekubeni banomdla kwaye abaxhasi bezentengiso baqhubeka bezithenga. kwixabiso lentengo.
Ukuvumelanisa amaSicwangciso
Imfihlelo yesiqhinga sokutyalwa kwe-investment ukuqonda ukubaluleka kotyalo-mali. Ukuba amaxabiso e-asethi aphezulu ngaphezu kweemimiselo zembali, kwaye abatyali-mali banomdla, bahlale beqaphele-kwaye ngokulandelelana Ukulandela imithwalo enkulu ukuba uyazi kakuhle ukuba iimeko ziya kutshintsha nini. Ukuba awunjalo, ke kukulungele ukuqonda ukulinganiswa kweemarike kwaye ugweme ukuhlawula imali eninzi kwiimpahla zakho zezimali.
Ukuthatha umhlalaphantsi njengoWarren Buffett .
UBarbara A. Friedberg ungumphathi wepotfoliyo kunye nomcebisi-mali weyunivesithi. Ukubhala kwakhe kubonakala kwiiwebhusayithi ezahlukeneyo kuquka uRobo-Advisor Pros.com kunye noBarbara Friedberg Personal Finance .