Iindaba eziphulaphulayo zenza iimarike zentengiso - kodwa uthuli luhlala luhlala
Umlindi wokuthengisa kwiimarike namhlanje ukunyaniseka. Ngevoti ye Brexit yakutshanje , abachazi bemarike bajolise ekuqinisekiseni okukhulu oku kuphuhliswa kukuvelisa kwihlabathi loqoqosho kunye noko kuthetha ntoni kwixesha elizayo kwiimarike zezezimali zehlabathi. Kubonakala ngathi wonke umntu uqikelele ukungaxhamli kwemakethe enkulu ekupheleni kokuphazamiseka kwezoqoqosho / kwezombusazwe.
Masimise okwesikhashana, siphefumle, kwaye ubeke oku.
Nangona eli lixesha lokuqala kwinkumbulo yelizwe lokuqala libonakala livotelwe ngenxa yokuvakaliswa kokuzimela ngokuzithandela ukungena kwemingcele, igama elithi "lingakaze lenzeke" lisoloko lithathwa malunga nokungaqiniseki kwezoqoqosho. Ukungaphumeleli kweLehman ngo-2008 kwakungazange kwenzeke ngaphambili, njengokuba ukuqhuma kwe-intanethi ye-intanethi, ukunyuka kwamazinga omdla, kunye nokuhlaselwa kwemakethe ye-stock market ka-1987.
Kubonakala ngathi sihlala sibhekana neemeko zoqoqosho zomhlaba wonke kwaye asiyikuphela nje kuphela, kodwa sihamba phambili kwaye siphumelele.
Iindaba ezidumileyo kwiimarike kukuba ukunyuka kwamanani kuyanda. Kodwa, into elula kukuba ukunyaniseka kwamanani - oko kukuthi, ukujonga ukuba ixabiso lentengiso liphakama kwaye liwe-alikho nto elitsha kwaye akukho nto ingayifumana. Kwaye, ubungqina bubonisa ukuba umlinganiselo oqhelekileyo wokutshatyalaliswa kwezinto uye wahlala ungatshintshi ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-90.
Uninzi lwabafundi bezemali lilinganisa ukungahambisani nokubala kokuphambuka okuqhelekileyo kweentlawulo. Lo ngumlinganiselo olinganiselweyo obonisa ngokucacileyo ukuba ubuyaphi ubuye buyaphambukela ekubuyiseleni okuqhelekileyo. Ngokomzekelo: Ukuba ukubuyela kwonyaka kwixesha elinesithathu leminyaka bekuyi-8 ekhulwini, iipesenti ezili-10 kunye neepesenti ezili-12, ubuyiselo obuphakathi buyi-10 ekhulwini kwaye ukubuyiswa akuzange kungaphambuki kumlinganiselo.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, zithi ukubuyela kwiminyaka emithathu kungaphantsi kweepesenti ezili-10, iipesenti ezili-10 kunye neepesenti ezingama-30. Njengoko kwimeko yangaphambili, ukubuyela kwekota kwimivuzo eyi-10, kodwa ukuphambuka okuqhelekileyo ukusuka kuloo myinge kwakuphezulu kakhulu.
Ngoku, ngokuqinisekileyo, abatyali-mali abaninzi abanqwenela umngcipheko kwaye bakhetha ukungabi nantoni. Okokuthi, bakhetha ukuphambuka okuphantsi kwezinga eliphambanweni eliphezulu. Kulula kakhulu ukulala ebusuku xa ukungabi nantoni kuphantsi. Ingxelo eqhelekileyo kukuba ukuhweba kwexesha elide, ukuhla kweekhomishoni zokuwa, ukurhweba kwakho, kunye nomjikelezo weendaba zezezimali ze-24/7 uye wabangela ukunyaniseka okukhulu.
Kodwa ngokukodwa ukuqonda kokunyuka kwenyameko kuye kwabangela ukuba abatyali-mali abaninzi benze izigqibo ezingenangqiqo nezingenangqiqo eziye zazihlawula ixesha elide.
Kwinqaku ezayo kwi-Journal of Wealth Management, i-Professorors Ken Washer kunye noRandy Jorgensen waseYunivesithi yaseCreighton, kwaye mna, ndafumanisa ukuba xa kulinganiswa rhoqo ngenyanga, ukungabi nantoni kwi-S & P 500 ayizange iguqule ngokucacileyo ngexesha elide kakhulu. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwenyanga nganye njengoko kulinganiswa ukuphambuka okuqhelekileyo kwakungaphantsi kwama-4 ekhulwini ngowe-1940 kwaye bekukho ngaphantsi kwama-4 ekhulwini ngo-2014.
Ingxaki kukuba abatyali-mali bahlala bejolise kwixesha elifutshane kunenyanga kwaye nanko ubungqina buhluke kakhulu. Xa kulinganiswa imihla ngemihla, ukunyanzeliswa kuye kwaphindaphindwa kabini ukusuka ngo-1940. Ukuphambuka kwansuku zonke kwakungaphantsi kwama-0.50 ekhulwini ngowe-1940 kwaye kuye kwaphakama ngaphezu kwe-1,00 ekhulwini ngo-2014.
Kodwa, kutheni abantu bagxininisa ukuguquka kwemihla ngemihla, kunokuthatha ixesha elide?
Impendulo kukuba, kuba bayakwazi.
Enye yezona zixhobo ezinkulu ezigcinwe ngabantu baseMelika zilinganayo emakhaya abo. Nangona kunjalo, abantu abakhathazeki malunga nokunyuka kwemihla kwimiba yokulingana kwamakhaya. Ngoba? Ngenxa yokuba ayinikezelwa ithuba. Ukwahlukana neakhawunti yakho yasekhaya kunye nomhlalaphantsi wakho kukuba awunakho umntu ekucaphuna ixabiso apho baya kuthenga khona indlu yakho yonke imizuzu - yenza njalo yesibini - yosuku. Ukuba awuyikucwangcisa ukuthengisa indlu yakho, kutheni unokukhathalela ukuba indlu yakho ifaneleke ngcaciso emfutshane ukuya kumzuzu, imihla ngemihla okanye kwenyanga? Ngokufanayo, ukuba awuyi kuceba ukuhlala phantsi kusasa, kutheni unokukhathalela ukuba i-akhawunti yakho yomhlalaphantsi ifanelekile?
Uhlobo olusandul 'umculi uJohn Oliver wenza inxalenye yakhe kwintetho yakhe edlulileyo kwiVeki yoLwesithathu kwiSicwangciso sokuthatha umhlalaphantsi. Icandelo liye ligxininisa ukuba abatyali-mali kufuneka bathathe ixesha lokujonga ixesha elide kwaye bahlole ixabiso leakhawunti yabo yomhlala-phantsi rhoqo ngokuba iGoogle "Ngaba uGenny Hackman usaphila?" Oko kukuthi, malunga nanye ngonyaka.
Abatyalomali basemhlala-phantsi abanokuhlala ixesha elide kufuneka bamkele isicwangciso se-dollar ixabiso lentengo kwi-index ye-equity fee. Okokuthi, kufuneka bahlale befaka imali njalo ngenyanga kwiipotifoliyo ezahlukahlukeneyo ezikhoyo ezifana ne-S & P 500 - kwaye, zenze ezo zityalo-mali eziqeqeshwe ukuba i-market ithobela phezulu, iphantsi okanye ngaphesheya.
Ingqungquthela emva kwevoti ye Brexit yakutshanje yayingumxholo malunga nendlela ukubuyiswa kwezinto ezinokutshatyalaliswa kwangoko kuye kwaba khona. Nangona iimarike zehla ngokuphawulekayo ngoLwesihlanu, i-3.6 pesenti yehla kwi-S & P 500 yayingumhla we-180 owona mbi kunabo bonke kwimbali. Ukubeka oku kuhamba phambili, i-S & P 500 ivule i-2016 ngexabiso le-2038.20 kwaye iphelile ukuthengisa ngoLwesihlanu kwixabiso le-2037.41 - ngokungatshintshiyo. Ukuba ubulele ekuqaleni konyaka kunye nokuvuthwa ngoMgqibelo ekuseni ukujonga ixabiso lakho lephothifoliyo mhlawumbi ubuya kulala ukulala.
Njengoko iBrits yayiza kutsho ngaphambi kwevoti yeBrexit, kwaye uthethe kwizizukulwana eziliqela ezidlulileyo, "Hlalani nizolile kwaye niqhubeke."
Kwaye, ngendlela, uGenen Hackman usaphila.
URobert R. Johnson ungumongameli kunye ne-CEO ye-American College yeeNkonzo zezeMali, isikolo esikwamkelekileyo esikwisiqinisekiso esinikezelwe kwiBryn Mawr, ePenna. ngowe-1927. UDkt. Johnson uye wabhala amanqaku angama-80 afundwayo kunye ne-author-co-author of Investment Banking kwi-Dummies, Investment With the Fed, I-Strategic Value Investment kunye neZiko loCwangciso loTyalo-mali.
ULou Carlozo ngumnyatheli wezobalo-mali we-US News & World Report.