Inkcazo, iSicwangciso kunye neCriticisms of Buy and Hold Investment
Thenga kwaye Ubambe Ingcaciso
Ukuthenga nokubamba isicwangciso sotyalo-mali esetyenziswe ngokuthenga iziqinisekiso zobutyalo-mali nokuzigcina ixesha elide ngenxa yokuba umtyalo-mali ukholelwa ukuba ukubuya kwexesha elide kunokuba kunengqiqo nangona kubonakaliswa kwexesha elifutshane.
Esi sicwangciso sichasene nexesha elifanelekileyo leemarike , ngokuqhelekileyo kunomthengi ukuthenga nokuthengisa ixesha elifutshane kunye nenjongo yokuthenga ngamaxabiso aphantsi nokuthengisa kumaxabiso aphezulu.
Ukongezelela, umtyalo-mthengi uthengise ukuba ukubamba ixesha elide kudinga ukuthengisa okungaphantsi kwamanye amaqhinga. Ngoko ke iindleko zokurhweba ziyancishiswa, eziza kukhulisa i-net net return of portfolio.
Kulula nje, ukuthenga nokugcina abatyalomali bakholelwa ukuba "ixesha kwiimarike" isitayela esithembekileyo sokutyalomali kunokuba "ixesha lokuthengisa."
Thenga kunye neSicwangciso soBuchule kunye namaZiko
Ukuthenga-kunye nabanini-zimali baqeshwe isicwangciso-mali sokwenza imali esilungelelanisa ne- Hypothesis esebenzayo ye-Market (EMH) , esho ngokubanzi ukuba yonke into eyaziwayo malunga nokugcinwa kweemali, njengemasheya, isele iqale kwixabiso lazo ziqinisekiso. Ngako-ke akukho mveliso yohlalutyo inokunika umnini-mali umgca phezu kwabanye abatyala-mali.
Abatyalo-mali nabathengi abaqhelekileyo baya kusebenzisa ezinye izinto ezingabonakaliyo, ezifana ne- dollar-cost cost and index, ngelixa gxininisa ngakumbi ekwakheni iphothifoliyo kunokuba kwenziwe uphando nophando.
Isicwangciso sokuthengwa kunye nesigxina siye sahambelana nexabiso lokutyalomali, okuza kusebenzisa indlela yokuhlalutya ebalulekileyo apho umtyalomali uza kuzama ukufumana izitokisi zeenkampani ezinexabiso elincinci lexabiso, okubonisa ukuba injongo yokugcina isitokisi ize ingabonakali ukuba "yixabiso."
Ukucacisa ngokucacileyo umninimali-mali owaziwayo, uWarren Buffett, "Ungathengi nantoni na ongeke uzimisele ukuyenza iminyaka emi-5."
Iingcaciso zokuThengwa nokuTyala imali
Ukugxeka okugqithiseleyo ukuthenga-kunye-kubambe xa iqhinga libonakala lingenalo ukuvelisa okanye alivumelekanga. Umzekelo osandul 'ulandelelwano olulandelayo lulandele iRest Recession kunye nemakethe yeebhere ehambayo xa abathengisi abakhutheleyo bhengeza ukufa nokuthenga. Abanini-mali abaninzi baye baqala ukungaqiniseki ukuthenga nokubamba ngenxa yezinto ezithiwa "ilahleko ezilahlekileyo" kwiisitokhi apho isicwangciso sokuthenga kunye nesigxina (ukubamba i- S & P 500 Index mutual fund ) ukususela ngoJanuwari 1, 2000 ukuya kuDisemba 31, 2009, kubangele ukuba kubuyiselwe ku-0.00% ukubuyela kumtyalomali.
Nangona kunjalo, lo mzekelo ocacileyo we-"cherry picking" ulwazi ukwenzela ingongoma yintloko yokugxeka ukuthengwa nokubamba - yigama elingabonakali elinokuthetha izinto ezininzi, ezifana nokuthatha umhlalaphantsi. Omnye unokuyenza ityala lokuba "umhlala-phantsi njengoko sakuba sesitsha esisha." Kodwa yintoni umgxeki ashoyo xa bethetha umhlalaphantsi? Ngokufanayo, ngabagxeki bathi ukuthini whey bathi "uthenge kwaye ubambe?"
Abaninzi abagxeki bokuthenga nokubamba abaqapheli ukuba iqhinga libanzi kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo liquka izinto ezincinci zexesha, ezifana ne-dollar-cost-average, engabonakaliyo kodwa yenza ukuba umtyalo-mali athenge izabelo kumaxabiso aphantsi, kunye namaxabiso aphezulu.
Lo mkhuba ubuya kuba nokuphucula ngokuphindaphindiweyo ukubuyisa ukuthenga nokugcina utyalo-zimali ngexesha lemihla elahlekileyo. Ukongezelela, ukuthenga nokugcina umtyalo-mali oye wabamba iimali-mboleko kwiipotfoliyo zabo ziza kuba neempembelelo ezintle ngexesha lemihla elahlekileyo. Kutheni abagxekayo baquka ukwabiwa kweempahla kunye neefolthiliyo kwiingxabano zabo malunga nokuthenga nokubamba?
Indlela yokunyanzelisa iyanciphisa iimpazamo eziqhelekileyo ezithengiswayo kunye nabathengisi bezobugcisa , oko kukungathinteli ukungangqinelani kwesihlwele sotyalo-mali. Ngokomzekelo, umthengisi wezobugcisa angathengisa izitokethi kwinqanaba eliphakamileyo lwakutshanje (kodwa inqanaba lokuchasa) kodwa umva-mali-mali angabangela ukuba amaxabiso aphule elo nqanaba, ukuthumela amanani aphezulu kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, utyalo-mthengi-ntengo unokubamba le ntsiphelo ngaphakathi kwintlawulo yephothifoliyo.
Ukugqiba, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqaphele ukuba bangavumeli abanye ukuba bachaze okanye batyhale iqhinga labo lokutshala, ifilosofi okanye amaqhinga. Ukulingana kunye nokuphambene, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba intshaba enkulu kunazo zonke umtyalomali uya kuba nguye.
Ukuziphendulela: Ulwazi olukule ndawo lunikezelwa ngeenjongo zengxoxo kuphela, kwaye akufanele lichazwe ngokungeniswa njengeengcebiso zotyalo-mali. Ngaphandle kweemeko ngaba le nkcazelo ibonisa isincomo sokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa iziqinisekiso.