Isikhokelo soTyalo-mali se-Smart ukuqonda nokulungiselela i-Bear
Ukuqonda i-Stock Market kunye neeNkcazo zoQoqosho
Akukho bell yemilingo ekhangela xa kuthengiswa i-bear yebhere kwi-stocks. Yilokho eyenza ixesha leemarike likhohlakele kwaye akusoloko isicwangciso sesicwangciso-mali esinconywayo.
Kodwa akudingeki ukuba ube nexesha lokuthengisa imimandla ngendlela efanelekileyo yokunciphisa umngcipheko xa ukuhla kwehla kubonakala ngathi kusemgangathweni. Kwakhona, akusiyo ingcamango efanelekileyo yokuhamba ngokupheleleyo kwi-stocks kunye ne-bonds kwaye ibe yimali ngoba kungenakwenzeka ukuba uqikelele ixesha elihle lokubuyela kulo.
Ngoko ke ubani oqala ukwenza izigqibo ezicwangcisekileyo zokucwangcisa imali kwi-market yebhere? Ukuba uqonda umahluko phakathi kweemarike kunye nezoqoqosho , kunye nokuba zihambelana njani nokusebenza komsebenzi-mali, unokugqiba izicwangciso ezifanelekileyo zexesha kunye nesakhiwo sepotfoliyo esisebenza kuwe.
Umzekelo, unokuba ufuna ukuqala ukulungiselela iipotifoliyo yakho kwimarike yeebhere ngaphambi kokuba uqale kunokulinda uze wazi ukuba izitokethi ezithile zithengiswa ngokusemthethweni kwimarike yeebhere. Awufuni ukulungiselela isiqhwithi xa sele siphezu kwakho kuba ukwenza utshintsho kweli nqanaba kunokunokwenza okubi ngaphezu kokulungileyo.
Iyintoni iMarike yeBhere?
Ngaphambi kokuba ucwangcise i-market yeebhere, kubalulekile ukuqonda ubunjani bayo. Uninzi lwabatyalo-mali banokuqonda ngokusisiseko kwekota kodwa yintoni inkcazo yemarike yeebhere kwaye ihlala ixesha elingakanani?
Imarike yebhere ingachazwa njengexesha elongezelelweyo lexesha apho ixabiso lokukhusela utyalo-mali liyehla.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, ibarashi yekota ibonisa indawo engafanelekanga kwimigodi kodwa ixesha liyakwazi ukubhekisela kwezinye iziqinisekiso zokugcina utyalo-mali, ezifana nezibophelelo okanye iimveliso.
Ubude bexesha lokuba ixesha lokuncipha kwamaxabiso lihlala libizwa ngokuba lixesha. Imbali yeemarike zexesha elidlulileyo sele isukela kwiinyanga ezintathu ukuya kutsho iminyaka emithathu. Uninzi lwamaxabiso emarike yeebhere lide ngaphezu konyaka omnye kodwa ngaphantsi kweminyaka emibini.
Musa ukulwa neMali!
Ngaphandle kokujonga, akukho mntu uyazi kakuhle xa i-market yebhere iqala. Kodwa inqaku elithi imarike entsha yebhebhe isondela ngakumbi xa i-Federal Reserve iqala ukunyusa izinga lentengo emva kwexesha lokunciphisa.
Usenokuba ulivile le mantra endala-mali, " Musa ukulwa neFed ." Oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuba abatyala-mali bangenza kakuhle ukuhlala batyalwe ngokugcwele (kuze kubekho ukunyamezela kwabo, ngokuqinisekileyo) xa i-Federal Reserve iyanciphisa ngokwenene ixabiso lentengo okanye ihlale iphantsi. Kule ndawo, iinkampani zinokuboleka imali ngexabiso elisezantsi, elidla ngokuguqulela kwinzuzo eninzi njengoko betyala imali ebolekelwe iteknoloji, okanye nje ukuhlaziya ityala ukusuka kumazinga aphezulu ukuya kumazinga aphantsi.
Kodwa xa i-Fed iqala ukunyusa amaxabiso, ithetha ukuba uqoqosho luphilile kwaye lukhula, oluqhelekileyo ukuya ekupheleni komjikelo wokukhula (kwaye ke ngokusondele kwimakethe yeebhere kunye nokunciphisa imali).
Imarike yenkomo kwi-stocks, ngoko, ihamba phambili phambi koqoqosho. Oku kungenxa yokuba imarike yesitokhwe yindlela ekhangele phambili "indlela yokuphuhlisa" kunye "nesalathisi sezoqoqosho." Ngamazwi ahlukeneyo, imarike yemasheya iya kuqalisa ukunyuka kweemarike zeebhere ngaphambi kokushunyayelwa ngokusemthethweni ukuba uqoqosho lusezingeni lomhlaba. Ngamazwi alula, amanani emasheya namhlanje abonisa ukuba abatyali baqikelele ngokubhekiselele kwiimeko eziza kusondela, kanti i-economics kunye ne-Fed zijonga emva kwexesha elidlulileyo ukuba ziqikelele impilo yangoku yezoqoqosho.
Ngoku khawucinge ukuba ubude obude (ubude) beemarike zeebhere kwiimasheya ngumnyaka owodwa. Ngethuba loqoqosho bexesha lithengisa iindaba zokuthi uqoqosho luye lwaqala, imarike yebhere kungenzeka isele ikhona kwiinyanga ezintathu okanye ezine, kwaye ukuba ixabiso lokuthengiswa kweebhere lingaphantsi kwesilinganiso seminyaka, eyona nto idlulileyo.
Ngamazwi ahlukeneyo, imarike entsha yebhere yamasheya ingaqala njengoko uqoqosho luqhubeka lukhula kwaye imarike entsha yenkomo inokuqala ngaphambi kokuba uqoqosho luhambe ngokusemthethweni.
Jonga i-P / E Ratio kwi-S & P 500 Index
Nangona oku akusiyo indlela echanekileyo yokuchaneka kwexesha elifutshane lokunyuka kweemakethe, ukulinganiswa kwemali-mali , eyaziwa nje ngokuba "P / E," ye- S & P 500 Index ingasetyenziswa njenge-barometer jikelele yokugqiba ukuba iisitokisi inokugqithiswa okanye ingaphaya. Kulula nje, ukuba ufunda ukutolika ixabiso elipheleleyo leemasheya ngokusebenzisa isilinganiso se-P / E kwi-S & P 500 unokufumana ingqiqo kwixabiso, kwaye ngoko ke, ulwalathiso lwamaxabiso olulandelayo.
Ukubhekisela, umyinge we-P / E umlinganiselo wesitokethi ukususela ngo-1870 sele ube malunga ne-15.00. Oku kuthetha ukuba, ukuba uthetha ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lesitokisi esikhulu kwisikhokelo se-S & P 500 kwaye uhlula ixabiso elihlangeneyo ngentsingiselo efanelekileyo, ufumana i-P / E kwinto abaninzi abatyali-mali ababizayo "imarike." Ukuba le P / E iphakamileyo kakhulu kunama-15.00, kunengqiqo ukulindela ukuba amanani e-stock awele ngexesha elithile kwaye ukuba i-P / E iphantsi, unokulindela ukuba amanani aphakame.
Indlela elula yokufumana umlinganiselo we-P / E we-S & P 500 Index mhlawumbi ngokukhangela kwe-Google okanye ngokujonga kwi-intanethi ye-intanethi nayiphi na i- S & P 500 Index Index .
Gcina i-Smart Balance neAccount Asset Allocation
Ngaphambi kokufikelela kwiimali zangempela zokutyalomali kwimarike yeebhere, qwalasela indlela onokuyibeka ngayo iphothifoliyo yakho yonke. Le ngxenye yecandelo lokwakha iphothifoliyo.
Njengoko usuvele uyayazi, akusibulumko ukuzama ukufumana ixesha kwiimarike ngokungena kwi-stock and bond bonds, kodwa kungabulumko ukwenza amancinci amancinci kunye nokuzilungisa ngokulungisa ulwabiwo lweefayili.
Ulwabiwo lwe-Asset luyimpembelelo enkulu kunazo zonke kwi-portfolio ukusebenza, ingakumbi kwixesha elide. Ngako-ke, umtyalo-mali unokuba ngumyinge wokukhetha utyalo-mali kodwa ulungelelaniso lwexabiso lempahla kunye nokusebenza okukhulu, xa kuthelekiswa nabatyalo-mali nabasisiseko abanokuthi bangene kakuhle ekukhethweni kotyalo-mali kodwa banexesha elibi kunye nokwabiwa kwempahla.
Nasi umzekelo wokwabiwa kwee-asethi : Masithi ubona iimpawu eziqhelekileyo zemarike yenkomo, efana namaxabiso aphakamileyo e-P / E kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso enzala, kunye nemarike entsha yeebhere ibonakala iphezulu. Ungakwazi ke ukuqala ukunciphisa ukufikelela kwiimali zesikhwama se-riski kunye nesabelo sakho sonke sabelo kwaye uqale ukwakha isikhwama sakho semboleko kunye nezikhundla zeengxowa-mali zemakethe yemali.
Masibuye sicinge ukuba isabelo sakho (okanye "esiqhelekileyo") sabelo-mali se-65%, imali ye-bond ye-30% kunye ne-5% yemali yemali yemarike / yemali. Emva kokuba ubona ama-P / E amanqanaba kumazinga aphezulu, iirekhodi ezintsha kwiimali ezinkulu zeemarike , kunye nokunyuka kwamazinga enzala, ungathatha inyathelo ekumngciphekweni kuma-stock%, i-30% kunye ne-20% yemali. Yonke into ehleliyo yintlobo zangempela zeengxowa-mali ezidibeneyo ezinganceda ukunciphisa umngcipheko we-marketfolio yakho.
Ukufunda malunga neyona nto inokukhetha ukutshala imali kwiimarike zeebhere, ufunda zeziphi iiNgxowa-mali eziManyeneyo ezilungileyo kwi-Market Market?