Ngaba abatyali-mali bangabakho ixesha loMakethi kunye noNyulo loNyulo lukaMongameli?
Nantsi into oyaziyo malunga nokutyalomali kunye noonyulo lukazwelonke likamongameli:
Ukhetho loMongameli woKhetho Inkcazo kunye nendlela eSebenza ngayo
I-Cycle Election Cycle yimbali yokuqala eyaqulunqwa ngumgcini-mlando we-stock market ogama linguYale Hirsch.
Iingcamango zashintsha ukuba zisetyenziswe njengesalathisi sexesha lokuthengisa isitoreli .
Nazi izizathu eziphambili, malunga nokusebenza kwemakethi yempahla, ngamnye kwiminyaka emine yomongameli wase-US:
- Ngomnyaka omnye kunye neyimibili yekota yowameli, uMongameli uphuma kwimodi yempikiswano kwaye usebenza nzima ukuzalisekisa izithembiso zephondo ngaphambi kokuba ukhetho oluzayo luqale. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, unyaka wokuqala ngowona usweleke kakhulu kwikota likamongameli kwaye unyaka wesibini awunamandla ngakumbi kunowokuqala.
- Lo mkhuba wobuthakathaka obuthathaka kukuba ukwenziwa kwempikiswano kwisahlulo sokuqala sikaMongameli akukona ngokubhekiselele ekuqiniseni uqoqosho; Zijoliswe kwimicimbi yezopolitiko, ezifana neenguqu zomthetho zerhafu kunye nemiba yezenhlalakahle.
- Kwiminyaka emithathu neyesine kwekota yoMongameli, uMongameli uphinde ungene kwimodi yenkampu aze asebenze nzima ukuqinisa ubutyebi. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, unyaka wesithathu ngowona wesibini unamandla kunabo bonke kwaye unyaka wesine ngowona wesibini unamandla kunesine.
- Isiqingatha sesibini soongameli sisoloko sinamandla kuneyokuqala ngenxa yokukhuthazwa kwezoqoqosho, njengokucutshulwa kweerhafu nokudala imisebenzi.
Imbali kunye nechanekileyo
Ukufomula umgangatho wokusebenza kwemakethi ye-stock of theory of Presidential Election Cycle Theory, ukusebenza kwee-stocks, okubekwe kwi-year best to the worst, unyaka wesithathu, unyaka wesine, unyaka wesibini kunye nomnyaka wokuqala.
Njengoko nayiphi na isicwangciso sesikhathi seemarike, umzekelo jikelele wokusebenza kotyalo-mali ophathelene noKhetho loMongameli likaMongameli unokuqiniseka, kodwa iphethini isekelwe kumyinge kunye nemigangatho ayiqinisekisi iziphumo ezihambelanayo!
Ngokomzekelo, ukusebenza kwemarike yamasheya kwiminyaka emibili yokuqala yokuqala yekota kaBarack Obama yayinamandla kunomnyaka wesithathu. Kwaye kwaba neziphumo ezifanayo kwikota yesibini ye-Obama - iminyaka emibini yokuqala yomelele kunowesithathu nowesine. Kwakhona, unyaka wokuqala kaGeorge HW Bush wawunamandla kunowesithathu nowesine, kwaye uBill Clinton wayeneminyaka yokuqala yokomelela kwimimiselo yakhe yomibini.
Utyalo-mali ohlakaniphile uya kuqwalasela u-Election Cycle Cycle njengenye yezinto ezininzi ezichaphazela imeko yezoqoqosho kunye neemeko. Ngokuqinisekileyo, iipolitiki zenza indima kwimarike yezemali kwaye umthetho owenziwe kwiCongress (ngokuqhelekileyo uvela kwi-ajenda yomthetho kaMongameli wexesha elihleliyo) unempembelelo enkulu kwimali yenkampani. Nangona kunjalo, ixesha lokunikezelwa kwexesha elilodwa loMongameli wexesha elihleliyo linye yinto echaphazela umngcipheko wemakethi , onokubandakanya iimeko zezoqoqosho zomhlaba, amazinga omdla, ingqondo yengqondo, kunye nemozulu.
Ingaba Inokuthabatha I-Stock Market?
Isilumkiso esiphezulu ngokusebenzisa nayiphi na isicwangciso sesikhathi sokuthi isicwangciso asikaze sithembeke ngokwaneleyo ukususa umngcipheko wemarike, ekhoyo ikhona ngokukodwa ngenxa yendlela engabonakaliyo yeemeko zezoqoqosho kunye neemeko.
Umzekelo weklasi wobugqwetha bokubangela ukudideka kunye nokulungiswa - ezinye zeentengo zembuyekezo zeemasheya zixhomekeke kwimisebenzi yezopolitiko, kodwa ubuhlobo obuninzi phakathi kwezenzo zikaMongameli (okanye ukungasebenzi) kuhambelanayo. Enyanisweni, kuye kwaba nemibutho efunyenwe phakathi komdlali we-Super Bowl kunye nokusebenza kwemakethe yemasheya. Ngaba iqela lebhola lebhola lebhola liyakuthonya i-market market Mhlawumbi akunjalo nje ngongameli we-US kodwa ufumana ingcamango: Musa ukubheja ifama kwipatheni. Ngelo xesha, umtyalo-mali oqiqayo akayi kukhwela kwiipateni ezimangalisayo okanye.
Nangona iimbali zibonisa ukuba unyaka wesithathu wexesha likaMongameli sele, ngokuthe xa kunjalo, kungcono kwi-stocks kunomnyaka wokuqala wobuongameli, ibinzana elibalulekileyo "liphakathi". Akukho naliphi na isithembiso sokuba yonke i-term "presidential term" "iphakathi." Ukongezelela, uMongameli we-United States akanalo igunya elaneleyo lokulawula imeko yezopolitiko jikelele.
Ngokufanayo, abatyali-mali abanakho iindlela zokulawula ukubuyiswa kwemali yeengxowa-mali zabo zonyaka kunye nonyaka. Ingqungquthela enkulu yokubuyiselwa kwemali yesikhwama sokubambisa iifomfolio ikwabiwa kwempahla kunye neentlobo zemali esetyenzisiweyo, kungekhona ngonyaka wexesha likaMongameli.