Konke Okufuneka Ukwazi Ngayo Imveliso Yemashishini Ephumayo
Kule nqaku, siza kujonga imijikelezo evelayo kunye nendlela abatyala-mali bamazwe ngamazwe abangayisebenzisa ngayo ukufumana amathuba, kunye nemimiselo yale mijikelezo yezoshishino emsebenzini.
Ziziphi Iintshukumo Zoshishino?
Imijikelezo yoshishino - okanye imijikelezo yezoqoqosho - ibonisa ukunyuka okuphezulu nokuhla kwexabiso lemveliso yasekhaya (GDP) kulo lonke ixesha elide. Ezi ntshukumo zibandakanya ukwanda, inkathazo, ukulungiswa kwemali, kunye nexesha lokubuyisela eliphindaphinda ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Ukunyuka kwezinto kubonakaliswe ngokuveliswa kwemveliso, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso , kunye nexabiso lentengo ephantsi; iingxaki zibonakaliswe ngengozi yeempahla kunye nokuphazamiseka; ukuhanjiswa kwempahla kubonakaliswe ngamanani ahlayo kunye nenani lentengo ephezulu; kwaye, ukubuyiselwa kwakhona kubonakala ngokubuyiswa kwempahla kunye namaxabiso ahlayo kunye nemali. Inkqubo iphinda xa ukuwa kwamaxabiso kukhokelela ekunyuseni ukusetyenziswa, okukhokelela kwingeniso ephakamileyo, kwaye ekugqibeleni, kubuyela ekunyuseni kwamanani nokunyuka kwemveliso.
Ngokomzekelo, iUnited States yafumana ithuba lokunyuselwa phambili ngo-2007 xa i-subprime mortgage crisis. Ukunyuka kwemali kwalandele le nkathazo kwaye kwaqhubeka kwade kwaqala ngo-2010 xa kuqalwa ukuqala. Ukususela ngoko, uqoqosho lwase-United States luye lwafumana ixesha elitsha lokunyuselwa. Le nkqubo injalo iphindaphindiwe ngamaxesha amaninzi kwimbali yelizwe, kubandakanywa ukuphazamiseka kwendawo ye-dot-com kuma-2000-yokuqala nangenxa yemicimbi yezopolitiko kuma-1970 nakwa-1980.
Iimpawu zeeNkcazo eziPhakamileyo
Imijikelezo yezo shishino zeemarike ekhulayo ibonakaliswa ngokukhawuleza kweengxelo ezikhoyo, ukunyanzeliswa kwamanzi okugqithiseleyo okugqithiseleyo ukungena kwemali, kunye "nokuyeka ngokukhawuleza" kwimali engenayo, ngokutsho kukaMarko Aguiar weYunivesithi yaseRochester. Ezi zimpawu zivela kwiinguqu zolawulo oluqhelekileyo oluchaphazela ngokuphawulekayo imali, imali kunye nemigaqo-yorhwebo, leyo leyo inefuthe eliphawulekayo ekukhuleni kwezoqoqosho kwelizwe.
Uqoqosho lwamaxabiso olusakhulayo luye lwabonakala ngakumbi kwizinto zangaphandle kunezoqoqosho eziphuhlisiweyo ezithembela ngokubanzi ekusebenziseni kwangaphakathi. Ngokomzekelo, ezininzi iimarike ezikhulayo zixhomekeke kumazwe angaphandle ukuqhuba ukukhula koqoqosho. Ixabiso lala mazwe angaphandle lichaphazela ukuhlanganiswa kwemfuno yangaphandle kunye nokulinganiswa kwemali. Oku kuchaza ukuba kutheni amazwe afana neChina afuna ukulawula ngokufanelekileyo ixabiso lemali yabo.
Ukunika amathuba
Ukunyanzeliswa kwimizi-mveliso kwiimarike eziphuhlisiwe kuye kwehla kwiminyaka emva nje, kodwa iimarike ezikhulayo zibone ukunyuka okukhulu kwintliziyo. Ezi zintsikelelo ziye zaguqulela ukunyuka kokunyanzeliswa kwamashishini asakhulayo . Ngokomzekelo, i-iShares MSCI Iimpawu zeMakethi ye-ETF (i-NYSE: i-EEM) ine-coefficient ye-beta ye-1.26, ngo-Juni 2017, oko kuthetha ukuba i-index ithetha malunga neepesenti ezingama-26 ezithandekayo kune-US S & P 500.
Njengoko nabani na abathengayo amasitokethi ase-US ngo-2008 bayazi, le ntliziyo ibangela ithuba lokuba abatyali-mali bamanye amazwe bathengise kwaye bathengise phezulu. Ingxaki ibonisa ixesha lokuthenga okanye ukuthengisa amashishini atshabayo atshabalalayo ngokusekelwe apho ilizwe lijikeleza khona.
Izinto ezintathu ezibalulekileyo zokubukela ziquka:
- Iintlawulo zamanqaku aseMelika: Iimarike ezininzi ezikhulayo zineentlawulo ezimele idola kunye netyala lenkampani, oko kuthetha ukuba "iindleko" zetyala zixhomekeke kwixabiso leedola laseMelika ngokumalunga nemali yendawo. Iirhafu zenzalo eziphezulu ziguqulela kwi-dollar enamandla, eyenza ukuba ityala elibiza idola libiza kakhulu, kwaye ngokufanayo.
- Utshintsho lwezopolitiko: Imijikelezo yezorhwebo ephakamileyo iqhutyelwa ngokubanzi ngenguqu yezopolitiko, ezinokuchaphazela umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali, umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kunye neengozi ze-geopolitical . Ngenxa yoko, abatyali-mali bamanye amazwe kufuneka bahlawule ingqalelo kuyo nayiphi na inguqu yezopolitiko kunye neempembelelo ezinokuthi zibe nazo kumjikelezo wezoshishino.
- Izinto ezingaphandle: Iimpawu zoshishino ezikhulayo ziye zathonyelwa ezininzi izinto zangaphandle, kuquka ukufunwa kwamanye amazwe kunye neengxabano ze-geopolitical. Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka bathathe naliphi na le mibandela ingqalelo kuba banokuba negalelo elikhulu ekukhuleni koqoqosho.
Kukho imizekelo emininzi yale miba edlala:
- I-Argentina: Unyulo lukaMauricio Macri eArgentina lubonisa utshintsho olukhulu lwezopolitiko oluye lwanceda ngokukhawuleza iimakethi zezoqoqosho.
- EMexico: Unyulo lukaDonald Trump eUnited States lwaluyimpumelelo yangaphandle eyonakalisa iimarike zokulingana zaseMexico ngenxa yokuguqulwa komgaqo-nkqubo.
- Iimakethi eziPhakamileyo eziPhakamileyo: Ithemba lokunyuka kwamaxabiso emali - ngelo xesha-kubangelwa ukunyuka kweemali kwiimarike ezikhulayo ngo-2015.
Ngaphantsi
Iimarike ezikhuphayo zimela ithuba elikhulu kubafakeli-mali bamazwe ngamazwe ukuvelisa ukubuyiswa okulungelelaniso lwengozi. Oku kufezekiswe ngokufunda imijikelezo yezo shishino zorhwebo nokuthenga nokuthengisa ngexesha elifanelekileyo. Le mijikelezo iqhutyelwa ngumbutho we-interest rates e-US, utshintsho lwezopolitiko kunye neemeko zangaphandle ezahlukahlukeneyo, okokuba abatyali-mali bamanye amazwe kufuneka bahlale bejonge ukufumana amathuba okufumana inzuzo.