Ukuthatha Ukukhangela kwiNtsomi Yamandulo yokuba iiBond zikhuselekileyo kuneziShishini
Umzekelo unokukunceda uqonde umxholo. Khawucinge ukuba unokhetho phakathi kokutsalwa kwezinto ezimbini kwipotfoliyo yakho.
Iyokuqala ibhondi ehlawula i-8.5% inzala ngonyaka. Ukuba inkampani iya kuphazamiseka, le nto ibanjelwe kwisithathu emva komnye umntu obolekisiweyo nayiphi na into ehleliyo xa ixabiso liye lahlulwa, i-real estate ethengiswayo, njl. (Oku kuthiwa "ukukhethwa kwempahla". beza kuqala, ngoko ke abakhethiweyo beempahla, ke abafaki bezinto eziqhelekileyo, kodwa i-nganye nkampani iyahlukileyo. Ewe, ngokuqhelekileyo, ufuna ukuphepha utyalo-mali kwiimeko ze-bankruptcy; zinzima kwaye abatsha-mali abatsha abanalo ulwazi, amava kunye nezibonelelo zokuthatha uncedo kwezi meko ezizodwa.)
Utyalo-mali lwesibini yinto eqhelekileyo yenkampani engenamatyala eqhuba umlinganiselo we- p / e we -10, ofumana isivuno se-10%. Phantse i-50% yeenzuzo zithunyelwe kubanini-zimpahla ngamnye ngonyaka njengezahlulo , okubangela isivuno sokwabiwa kwe-5%. Ukulawula kulungile, ukuthengiswa kuzinzile kwaye kukhula ngokukhawuleza kunokuba kuthengwa kwamanani emveliso, kwaye ukuba kukho into ehamba kakuhle, abanini-zimpahla babokuqala kumgca ekukhethweni kokuchithwa ngenxa yokuba kungekho banini besikhonkco okanye abanikazi beempahla ezikhethiweyo phambi kwabo.
Kule meko, ndiza kujonga ukutshala imali kwisitokethi ukuba kuphephe ngakumbi kunokutyalomali kwi-bond. Ndamangaliswa? Kukho izizathu ezininzi zeenkolelo zam.
Izizathu Ndingakujonga NgesiKhwama esiphephile kuneBond
Kukho izizathu ezininzi ndiza kuziqwalasela isitokethi kwi-vignette yethu ekhuselekileyo kunokugqithisa.
- Isitokisi asikho nto phambi kwayo. Kuyokuqala kumgca ngokwemigaqo yokukhethwa kwemali. Njengoko uBenjamin Graham uthe kwi-1934 iphephandaba lencwadi eyaziwayo, uhlalutyo loKhuseleko (okubizwa ngokuba "iBhayibhile yokutshala imali"), isitya esifanayo esingaphandle kwayo kufuneka, ngokucacileyo, sikhuselekile njengesibophelelo esingenanto okokuba ukuba kukho into engalungangayo, ngaba ngabantu bokuqala abasemgceni ukuba bafumane nantoni eseleyo emva kokuba abasebenzi, abanikazi bezindlu, abathengisi kunye nabanye ababolekisi bemali ngaphambili bahlawulwe.
- Iibhanki zihlawula inzala ka-8.5% ngonyaka kodwa phantsi kwemithetho yerhafu yangoku, oku kusebenza kwisivuno somhlaba esingu-5.53% kuba inzala yakho yenzalo ihlawulwa njengeniso eliqhelekileyo. Oko kuthetha ukuba umntu ophethe ibhonksi yerhafu engenayo ilahlekelwa ngumyinge wama-35% omninimfesane kunye nentlawulo yelizwe eya kuhlawulwa. Isitokisi, ngokuchaseneyo, sinomvuzo wokuhlawula ama-5% kodwa izabelo zihlawuliswa kwizinga eliphezulu le-15%. Oku kuthetha ityala lokuhlawula ixabiso lentlawulo ngu-4.25%. Ngaloo ndlela, umehluko phakathi kwezivuno zombini awuyi-3.5% njengoko yayiza kubonakala phezulu, kodwa kuphela i-1.28%
- Kunokwenzeka, ukuba izinto ziyahamba kakuhle, ukuba isitokhwe siphumelele isahlulo sahlulo sokuncedisa umtyalo-mali ukuba aqhubeke nomlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso njengoko iinkampani zandisa inani lemveliso kunye neenkonzo. Ngesibophelelo, ufumana i- coupon bond bond kunye nayo. Ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubuyela kwiminyaka yooMongameli uCarter noReagan, ubuya kulahlekelwa amandla okuthenga unyaka ngamnye ukuba uvalelwe kwisibophelelo (ndabhala malunga nale nto inzuzo kwi-Inflation .) Isitokisini sinalo ithuba lokunqoba umngeni Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, xa kungenjalo ibhizinisi elincinci elifuna imali eninzi, njengetyeyilsimbi okanye isakhiwo esinzima sokwakha.)
Ukuba iibhanki azihlali zikhuselekileyo kunamaSitokisi, Kutheni Inkolelo-ze Iqhubeka?
Kutheni, ngoko, inkolelo yokuba utyalo-mali kwizibophelelo lukhuselekileyo kunokuba utyalo-mali kwiimpahla ziqhubeke ukuqhubeka xa kungenakwenzeka kuzo zonke iimeko? Ngenxa yokuba abaninzi abatsha abangenalwazi abanamathuba okungaziphathi kakubi ngengozi. (Ukutshatyalaliswa kwelizwi ligama elichaza amaxabiso asethi ahamba ngokukhawuleza, ngokukhawuleza, ngamanye amaxesha aphakamileyo aphezulu okanye aphantsi. Isitokhi sinokunyuka okanye sinciphise ngama-50% okanye ngaphezulu ngonyaka.) Akunjalo into efanayo. Akunakuqonda kuwe, kodwa kukho inani elikhulu labatyalomali kwihlabathi abaya kuvuya xa becinga ukuba bafumana inzala ye-8.5% ngemali ngamnye kunyaka, nokuba baphela kuphela nge-5.53% emva kwentela kwihlabathi i-11% yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunokuba babeya kuhamba ngokunyuka kwamanani emali, ngokuqinisekileyo bafumana inzuzo kunye nokuthengwa kwamandla phezu kwexesha elide, kodwa bahlupheke ngenxa yamathambeka amakhulu kwaye banyuke njengoko ixabiso lesitokhi lichithwa.
Bakhohliswa ngenxa yoluphi uqoqosho u-Irving Fisher obizwa ngokuba yi "Money Illusion".
Inyaniso iya kuGraham kwinqanaba labafundi bakhe bokutyalo-mali: Ngamaphi amagama, kunye nantoni na? Iibhonksi, njengendlela yokutyalomali, azikhuselekanga ngaphezu kwee-stocks eziyingozi. Ihla kweyona nto ibangela ukhuseleko kunye nendlela ohlawula ngayo. Yona yinto ecacileyo yithuba elifanelekileyo elinokubaluleka. Kufuneka wenze umsebenzi wesikolo.
Olunye ulwazi malunga noTyalo-mali kwiiBond
Ukuba unqwenela ukucinga ngokungongeza iziqinisekiso ezinjengeebhanki zenkampani kwi-portfoliyo yakho yotyalo-mali, khangela le nqaku malunga nezicwangciso zokutyalwa kotyalo olunokukunceda unobungozi obuphantsi kwaye wenze imali engakumbi kwiindawo zakho .