Ukuqonda ixabiso le-Intrinsic kunye neZibangela iziNxulumaniso ezahlukeneyo zifanelwe iimilinganiselo ezahlukeneyo
Ngomxholo walo, inkcazo ebalulekileyo yexabiso langaphakathi kwi-asethi yonke ehlabathini ilula: Yonke imali yokuphuma kwemali eya kuveliswa yile mali ehlaziywe kumhla wangoku kwizinga elifanelekileyo ukuba izinto zindleko zithuba ( ngokuqhelekileyo kulinganiswa ngokubhekiselele kwiNgxowa-mali ka-US engekho ngengozi) kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso . Ukuqaphela indlela yokufaka isicelo kwisitokethi ngasinye kunokuba nzima kakhulu kuncike kwimeko kunye noqoqosho lwezoshishino ezithile. Njengoko uBenjamin Graham, uyise we-shishini lokuhlalutya ukhuseleko, unxuse abafundi bakhe, nangona kunjalo, akukho mfuneko yokungazi ubunzima obucacileyo bendoda ukuze azi ukuba unotye okanye umfazi owaziyo ukuba uneminyaka engakanani. Ngokugxininisa kuphela kula mathuba achazwe ngokucacileyo kwaye ngokucacileyo kwinqanaba lakho lobuchule kwaye uyazi ukuba ungcono kunomyinge, uGraham ukholelwa ukuba unakho amathuba amaninzi okufumana ukwaneliseka, ukuba akunjalo-kunokwanelisayo, iziphumo kwixesha elide ixesha.
Wonke amashishini awadalwa alinganayo. Inkampani yokukhangisa engafuni nto ngaphezu kwamapensele kunye neeesksi yinto engcono yoshishino kunomtshini wensimbi, ukuba uqalise ukusebenza, idinga amashumi ezigidi zeedola okanye ngaphezulu kwi-investing capital investment. Eminye into elinganayo, inkampani yokukhangisa ifaneleke ngokukodwa ixabiso eliphezulu-kuya-inzuzo ephezulu ngenxa yokusingqongileyo kwempahla, abanini-mali (abanini-zimali) abayi ku funeka bahlale bekhankanya imali kwiinkcitho-mali ukuze kugcinwe ipropati, izityalo kunye izixhobo .
Yingakho abatyala-mali abanengqondo kufuneka bahlule phakathi komlinganiselo wemali engenayo echaziweyo kunye nenyaniso, inzuzo "yezoqoqosho" okanye "umnikazi" umvuzo njengoko uWarren Buffett ubize. La manani amele inani lemali engumnini angayifumana ngaphandle kweshishini aze aphinde abuyele kwenye indawo, uchithe ngeemfuno okanye ubuncwane okanye uzinikele ekuthandweni.
Ngamanye amazwi, akunandaba nokuba ingeniso engenayo yenzelwa ingeniso kuba ingeniso engenayo ingeniswa. Kunoko, into ebalulekileyo kukuba iindwendwe ezininzi ezingayithengwa ngumnini malunga nokutyalomali kwakhe kwishishini. Yiyo loo nto ibhizinisi elincinci-mali eliqhelekileyo lingabonakali-mali abathathi-mali bexesha elide, njengoko beqonda kakhulu encinci yengeniso yabo echaziweyo bayakuguqulela kwizinto ezibonakalayo, ubuncwane benkunkuma ngenxa yeyona nyaniso ebalulekileyo: Ngethuba elide, ukunyuka kwexesha Umthamo-mali-mali ulinganiselwe ekubuyiselweni kwe-equity eyenziwa yinkampani ephantsi. Nantoni na into, njengokuzithembela kwimarike yenkomo okanye ukuba umntu olandelayo emgceni uya kuhlawula ngakumbi inkampani kunani (ebizwa ngokufanelekileyo ngokuthi "inkohliso enkulu").
Umphumo wale mbono oyintloko kukuba amabhizinisi amabini anokufumana iimali ezilinganayo zeedola ezili-10, kodwa i-Inkampani ye-ABC inokuvelisa kuphela i-$ 5 yezigidi kunye nezinye, i-Inkampani ye-XYZ, i-$ 20 yezigidi "kwimali yokufumana imali." Ngoko ke, i-XYZ Inkampani inokuba nexabiso- umvuzo we-earnings amane amaxesha angaphezulu kunomncintiswano we-ABC okwangoku uthengisa ngokulinganisela okufanayo.
Ukubaluleka koMgca woKhuseleko xa kuqwalaselwa iiSitokisi ezinePatile ephezulu yeP / E
Ingozi ngale ndlela kukuba, ukuba ithathwa kakhulu, njengengqondo yengqondo yabantu, nayiphi na isiseko sokulinganiswa kwemilinganiselo ngokukhawuleza iphonswa ngaphandle kwefestile. Ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuba uhlawula imali engaphezulu kwama-15x kwenkampani kwiimeko eziqhelekileyo zenzalo (20x ngomvuzo ngamnye kwi-rekodi-breaking the interest-rate rate rate), kufuneka uhlolisise ngokucokisekileyo ukucinga kwakho ixabiso elizayo kunye nexabiso langaphakathi . Ngaloo nto yathi, ukulahlwa ngokubanzi kwezabelo ngalelo xabiso akusilumko. Unyaka odlulileyo, ndikhumbula ukufunda ibali elichaza ukuba ngama-1990s, isitoko esincinci kakhulu ekubuyiseleni kwakhona kwakuyi-Dell Computers kwi-50x yokufumana. Kuzwakala iphosa kodwa xa yehla kuyo, inzuzo eyenziwe nguDell yayithetha ukuba, ukuba uthenge ityali elinganayo ne-2% yemali engenayo isivuno, uya kutyhoboza phantse yonke enye imali.
Nangona kunjalo, ngaba uya kuba ukhululekile ukuba ube nexabiso elipheleleyo lokutsalwa imali kwi-shishini elinobungozi ukuba ungayiqondi ingxaki yezoshishino zekhompyutheni, abaqhubi bexesha elizayo, iimpahla eziphathekayo ze-PC kunye nesakhiwo esinexabiso eliphantsi. unikeza uDell ithuba elingcono kunabo baphumelele, kwaye mhlawumbi ukuba iphutha eliyingozi liyakususa inxalenye enkulu yemali yakho? Mhlawumbi akunjalo.
I-Compromise efanelekileyo Xa ujonga i-P / E Ratios
Umntu-mali-mali, imeko ecacileyo ivela xa ufumana ishishini elihle kakhulu elivelisa imali eninzi kunye ne-investment engundoqo, njengoko i-American Express ngexesha leSalad Oil scandal, u-Wells Fargo xa kuthengiswa ngemali emihlanu kwi-crash ye-estate ekupheleni kweminyaka ye-1980 kunye neyokuqala kwe-1990 okanye i-Starbucks ngexesha lokuhlaselwa kweNkulu-mali yokuPhumula kwe-2009.
Uvavanyo oluhle ongayisebenzisa kukuba uvale amehlo akho uze uzame ukucinga ukuba ishishini liya kubonakala njani kwiminyaka eyi-10. Bobabini njengomhlalutyi wokulingana kunye nomthengi, ucinga ukuba kuya kuba mkhulu kwaye kunenzuzo? Kuthiwani ngeenzuzo - ziza kwenziwa njani? Ziziphi izisongelo kumhlaba wokukhuphisana? Xa ndiqala ukubhala eli nqaku ngaphezu kweminyaka elishumi eyadlulayo, ndafaka umhlathi owathi, "Umzekelo onokukunceda: Ngaba ucinga ukuba iBlockbuster iya kuba yinto ephezulu yevidiyo yokuqashisa i-franchise? Ngokomntu, inkolelo yam ukuba umzekelo wokuhambisa Iidisksi zeplastiki zitshintshile kwaye i-broadband ihamba ngokukhawuleza kwaye ikhawuleza, umxholo uya kugqitywa, uqeshwe okanye uthengiswe ngqo kwii-studios ngaphandle kwemfuneko yomntu ophakathi nonke, uvumela abadali boluqulatho ukuba bagcine yonke ingxowa-mali. ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kundibangela ukuba ndifune umgama okhuselekileyo okhuselekileyo ngaphambi kokuthengwa kwishishini elijongene neengxaki zezobuchwepheshe ezinjalo. " I-Blockbuster yenza, enyanisweni, ekugqibeleni ilahleke. Ziziphi iimashishini ozikholelwayo ezikuyo ndawo, ngoku, ukuba iBlockbuster yayinguye?