Ukujonga indlela i-Federal Reserve engabangela ngayo abatyali-mali
Nazi iindlela ezinhlanu ze-Federal Reserve ezichaphazela iimarike ezikhulayo kunye noko kuthetha ntoni kubatyalomali kule mikethi.
Ukunyuka kwiiNkampani ezingenzi kakuhle
Izinkampani ezininzi ezithengisa imveliso ziye zazuza kwiirhafu eziphantsi ze-US ngokuboleka kwiidola kunye nokuhlawulwa kwetyala ngeengxowa zemali zendawo. Ngokubhekiselele kwiBhanki yeZizwe zamaZwe ngamaZwe, bekukho malunga ne-1.1 trillion kwiibhanki ezidityanisiweyo zeedola ezikhishwe ngamashishini angaphandle kwamabhanki aphumayo kwi-Q3 2015 xa kuthelekiswa ne-$ 509 yezigidigidi kuphela ekupheleni konyaka we-2008-ukwanda okwenziwe ngexesha eliphantsi umgangatho wenzala.
Iirhafu zamanqanaba aphezulu e-US zinokukwenza ukuba kunzima ukufumana ezi mboleko. Ngokomzekelo, imali yaseBrazil yawela ukurekhoda i-dollar ngo-2015, eyenza kube nzima ukuba iinkampani zivelise ingeniso yokubuyisela imali kwiidola zase-US. Ezi zindleko zonyuka zingakhokelela ekutshatyalaliswa kwezinto ezingafaniyo ezinokubangela ubuhlungu kwimarike ye-market bond kunye ne-ETF njenge-iShares Emerging Markets Corporate Bond ETF (CEMB).
2. Utyalo-mali lwangaphandle
Iimarike ezininzi ezikhulayo ziye zabona utyalo-mali oluthile lwangaphandle ukususela ngo-2008 lweengxaki zemali. Ngokuvelisa izibophelelo ze-US kunye neYurophu kwiirekhodi zokurekhoda, abatyali-mali baqokelele kwiimpahla zorhwebo ezikhulayo ezikhulayo kunye nezibophelelo zokuqinisa iiphothifoliyo zabo. Olu qoqosho lwamafama olusakhulayo lwaluxhomekeke kulo kunyuka okunyanisekileyo kwiingxowa-mali ezivela ngaphandle ukuze kuqhutywe ukukhula koqoqosho kwaye kubone ukwandiswa okukhulu kwimihla embalwa edlulileyo.
Iirhafu zenzalo ephakamileyo zinokuthabatha abatyali-mali abaninzi kwii-US kwaye zivelise ukuphuma kweendleko kwiimarike ezikhulayo. Olu lwabiwo-mali olungaphantsi kolunye utyalo lungafaka iibhuleki ekukhuleni koqoqosho kwezoqoqosho ezininzi ezithembele kwezo zityalo-mali. I-so-called okuthiwa i- Fragile Five i- economic ebonakala yintlekele kakhulu kulolu hlobo lokuchithwa - iTurkey, iBrazil, iNdiya, uMzantsi Afrika kunye ne-Indonesia-kwaye iyavuma ukuba ingqalelo.
3. Ukuwa kweMali yeMali
Iimarike ezininzi ezikhulayo ziye zafumana ukuxabisa okukhulu kwiimali zabo. Ngokomzekelo, isibini se-USD / ZAR semali sisuka ngaphantsi kwe-10.00 ngo-2012 ukuya kwi-17.00 ephakamileyo ngoJanuwari 2016 njengoko i-dollar yase-United States yanciphise irandi yaseMzantsi Afrika . UMzantsi Afrika wakwazi ukuphakamisa ukunyuka kwexabiso lemali ukuboleka amanye amaRandi wase-US ukuxhasa iimali ezahlukahlukeneyo zokukhula nokunyusa iindleko zikaRhulumente.
Iindaba ezimbi kukuba iirandi zemali zorandi kunye nezinye ezikhulayo - sele ziqale ukuwa phakathi kokulindela ukuba i-Federal Reserve iyakwandisa inzala . Ezi zintlukwano zingenza kube nzima kumazwe anjengeMzantsi Afrika ukuhlawula amatyala abo ahlawulwe ngamadola - enye ingxaki ejongene neenkampani ezininzi ezizimeleyo.
Isisombululo esisodwa sinokuthi sivumele imali yaso ibe yintengo, enokukunceda ukuthumela ngaphandle kodwa ukulimala utyalo-mali.
4. Inkcazo yoBungqina bendalo
Amashishini amaninzi aphumayo asebenzisa amaxabiso asezantsi e-US ukuboleka kwiidola zase-US. Umzekelo, uMzantsi Afrika ubolekise kakhulu xa idola liphantsi kwaye lisetyenzisiweyo ukuxhasa ukukhula kwayo kunye neemfuno zebhajethi. Ezi zintlukwano zancedisa iimarike ezininzi ezisakhulayo ngaphandle kweeminyaka emininzi edluleyo, kodwa icebo liyakwazi ukubuyela kubo ukuze baxakeke xa idola liphakama kwixabiso kwaye la matyala axabisa.
UMzantsi Afrika unelinye lezona zimfuno ezinkulu zezimali zangaphandle kwihlabathi, oko kuthetha ukuba imali yokugcina imali yincinci kuneyona mali efunekayo ekuncedeni ityala laso langaphandle kwaye lihlawule ukuthengiswa kwamanye amazwe. Ezi zintlukwano zingakhokelela kumlinganiselo ophantsi weentengo zemali kunye neendleko eziphezulu ezibolekayo ekuqhubela phambili ukuba i-dollar yase-United States iyayixabisa ngexabiso.
Iindleko eziphezulu ezibolekayo zingenza kube nzima ukufumana inkxaso efunekayo ekutsaleni ukukhula.
5. I-Lower Dollar Commodities
Uqoqosho oluninzi olusakhulayo lwezoqoqosho luxhomekeka kwimpahla yokuqhuba ukukhula koqoqosho. Ngokomzekelo, iBrazil neRashiya zixhomekeke kakhulu kwioli engcolileyo kunye neendleko zegesi zendalo, ngelixa iChile ne-Peru bathembela ngokubanzi ngobhedu kunye nezinye izinto ezinzima. Amanani okuthengwa kwempahla aphakanyisiwe kwiminyaka emininzi edlulileyo ekubeni ixabiso lentlawulo yeedola zase-US kunye nezinye iidola zifuneka ukuba zithenge 'ixabiso' elifanayo lezinto eziphathekayo, zibeke inani elingaphaya kweedola.
Ukuba idola liphakanyiswa ngexabiso, ezi zintengiselwano zingakwazi ukuguqula kwaye izinto ziyakubona ukunyuka kwengcinezelo ephantsi. Ezi ziindaba ezimbi kwiimarike ezikhulayo kuba ezininzi iimveliso zithengiswa kwiidola zase-US, oko kuthetha ukuba baya kuvelisa imali engenayo ngokwenene. Ingeniso encinci inokuguqulela ukukhula okucothayo kunye nokulinganiswa okuphantsi kweenkampani ezigxilwe kwizinto ezisebenza kule nkxaso-mveliso ebonakalayo.
Ngaphantsi
I-Federal Reserve inefuthe elibi kwiimarike zasekhaya, kodwa abatyali-mali abaninzi bayehluleka ukuqonda ukuba yimpembelelo ebalulekileyo kwimarike yangaphandle . Iimarike ezikhulayo zijoliswe ngakumbi kulezi zinguqu kwimilinganiselo yenzalo kunye nokulinganisa kweedola ngokumalunga neengingqi zemali. I-upshot kukuba i-Federal Reserve iye yavuma le nto kwaye iquka ukukhathazeka kwehlabathi jikelele kwisigqibo sayo somgaqo-mali-kodwa oko akuthethi ukuba ayiyi kuba nefuthe.