Kukho ihamba kwiDola, kwakhona
Ngaphezulu kweminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo, amaxesha obundlobongela baseburhulumenteni athatyathwa ngo-2008 njengoko ubunzima beentengo zemboleko beqala ukubonakala, kukho ukungabikho kwemali yehlabathi kunye neentlupheko ezifudukayo kwiiNorhwebo zase-US, ezithathwa njengotyalo-mali olukhuselekileyo emhlabeni. Siye sabona amandla amakhulu edoli ngo-2014 xa i-Federal Reserve iqalile ukuxubusha umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ukuqinisa njengoko lonke ihlabathi lifana ne-European Central Bank kunye neBhanki yaseJapan kunye ne-Bhanki yase-England ngokutsha sele ikhulula umgaqo-nkqubo wokukhuthaza ukukhula nokuxhasa icandelo lokuthumela ngaphandle .
Amandla aseburhulumenteni abanobudlova kwinqanaba lesibini le-2014 lalihamba kunye nokuthengwa kweemarike kunye nokuthengwa kwempahla, ngokukodwa ukuthengisa imveliso yeoli. Ngemuva kwexabiso lokuthengwa kwempahla, sabona iimali ezininzi zeemveliso ezifana nedola lase-Australia, idola yaseNew Zealand kunye neDanada yaseCanada ihlaselwa ngokugqithisileyo kwiDola yama-US.
Ukususela ngoNovemba 9, 2016, isalathisi seDola ye-US (iDXY) siphume phezulu ukuya kumazinga angabonakali ukususela ngowama-2003, kwaye unikezwe iinyanga ezingama-21 zokuhlanganiswa ukususela ngoMashi 2015 ukuya kuNovemba 2016, abanye besaba ukuba amandla edoli Ngo-2008, kwaye ngo-2014 uphinde kwakhona.
Impembelelo yeTrump
Amatyekethi athetha ukunyuka ngokugqithisileyo xa bathatywayo. Iimodeli zezemali zihlala zibiza le ngxube. Nangona uloyiso lweTrump yohlanga lukaMongameli we-2016 aluhambelani nentsingiselo yendabuko yokutshatyalaliswa okwezinye iindawo ezibizwa ngokuba yi-swan swan, ibonisa umgangatho okhulayo weziganeko ezibonakala zingenakwenzeka.
Ngaphambi kokhetho lwase-US, uninzi lwezoqoqosho kunye nabathathi-nxaxheba bemarike bacinga ukuba i-UK ivote kwingxelo ye-EU eya kubangela ukuba "i- Brexit " yayingenakwenzeka, kodwa ikhefu lokuvota liye laphela ekupheleni. Nangona ivoti yokubhenela kwe-EU eyenziwa ngoJuni 24, ngo-2016, i-marhwebo isaqhubeka nokunyanyiswa kwe-Brexit. Olu lukhuni lukhokelela ekuqhubekeni okubalulekayo kwixabiso le-GBP kwiinyanga zeemakethe emva kokuba ivoti abathengisi abaninzi bengaqinisekanga ukuba uqoqosho lwe-UK luya kuhamba njani ngaphandle kobuhlobo bendabuko kwisivumelwano sohwebo lwentengiso ye-EU.
Ukukhawuleza kwiveki emva kokuba u-Ukhetho lukaMongameli we-US kunye neemarike zezimali zibonakala zisebenza kwindawo yokudideka. Ukudideka kunokufumana imvelaphi kuba abaninzi bayayiqonda ukuba umviwa wonyulo unika ithuba lokuba nombono ogqithiseleyo kunomongameli okanye igosa elikhethiweyo. Nangona kunjalo, ekubeni uDonald Trump uye wazibeka njengomntu othanda ukudlala ngokwemithetho yakhe, baninzi abalindele iinkqubo zakhe eziza kubuyisa umgangatho wehlabathi jikelele ukuze zizuze idola ngemali yezinye ezoqoqosho.
Ekufundeni malunga neMakethe yeMashishini ekuTshintshiselwano kwamanye amazwe, enye yemikhosi ebalulekileyo ebeka ixabiso lemali yintengiso kunye nokuhamba kwemali.
Ukuhamba kwezorhwebo kuvela ekuphumeni kwezinto zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokuthunyelwa kwelizwe. Ukuphuma kwemali kuvela kwi-flow flow of investment in and out of a country.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, urhwebo lwenzeka nelizwe elibonwayo njengento enomsebenzi okanye othelekisayo ekuveliseni into enqwenelekayo kunamanye amazwe. Ukunciphisa kwexabiso elithile eliye laqhutyelwa ngenkqubo yenkqubo yomgaqo-mali uye wabizwa ngokuba ngumgangatho wokukhuphisana nokuthengiswa kwabo kwiizwe ezizweni. Nangona kunjalo, njengoko sasichaza ngaphambili, ezininzi zeziqoqosho ziphelile ngeengxaki ezingenakunqwenelekayo ngenxa ye-surplus account surplus account .
Ukuphuma kwemali kusekelwe ekutyalweni kwamanye amazwe ngenxa yoqoqosho oluzinzileyo apho uqoqosho luzinzileyo nezinga lokubuyisela elidlula i-premium yengozi yokutshala imali kwilizwe elithile.
Kwiindawo ezininzi zeengxaki ezinkulu zemali, xa iibhanki eziphambili zinqumle ukuhlawula iirhafu ezibhekiselele kwizansi ngaphantsi kweemeko ezininzi kwiimeko ezininzi ezijikelezayo, uqoqosho olunezinga eliphezulu kakhulu lokuboleka liye lenza utsalomali oluvela kwihlabathi kwizinto ezaziwa nje "ukuzingela isivuno."
Ixabiso leMveliso
Ukulindela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuyinxalenye ebalulekileyo yexabiso lemali. Enye yeendlela ezilula ukubethelela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kukungena kwimarike engeniso engeniso, kwaye ngokukodwa ngokukhangela isivuno esiphezulu. Izivuno eziphezulu ziyakwazi ukuthetha kunye nokungafuni ukulungiselela ukuhlawulwa kweekhuphoni ezinqunyanyisiweyo xa kunokwenzeka ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okuya kusenokungadli amandla okuthenga umtyalomali, okanye ukuzuza okungcono kunokuba kukho kwezinye iimarike njengamalungelo okanye iimveliso.
NgoLwesithathu emva kokhetho lonyulo lukaMongameli wabona i-US yeminyaka-10 yeNondyebo inqaku liphakanyisiwe lilonke lemali ye-intraday. Ukuhamba ngokukhawuleza kwezivuno eziphezulu, ezihamba kunye nokuhla kwexabiso lempahla, kudibanisa i-selloff kwiibhondi kunye neentlawulo ezikhutshiwe.
Umbono okanye ingcamango engundoqo kukuba i-Congress enkulu e-United States phantsi komongameli waseRephablikhi oye wakha umsebenzi wokubaluleka kwamashishini okuzakhela iziseko ziyakwazi ukuxhasa ukukhutshwa kwemali engakhokelela ekunyuseni kwemali. Ezinye iibhanki eziphambili zihlala zilwa ne-disinflation okanye ukuchasana, kwaye zijonge iindlela ezintsha zokunciphisa umgaqo-mali wemali.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-United States malunga nokunyuswa kwemali kungabangela ukuhlukana komgaqo-mali ophezulu, njengokuba sibonile ngo-2014. Ukuhlukana komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali kwafumanisa igama, 'i-taper tantrum' kwaye kuthiwa ukulibala ngokukhawuleza umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali uqinisa I-Federal Reserve inokuthintela ukungavumelani okukhulu kwizoqoqosho jikelele. Nangona kunjalo, kwiminyaka embalwa emva koko, sinokufumana iFed kwi-conundrum efanayo, kodwa ngezinye iindlela ezimbalwa.
Inkcazo yeMali
Indawo elula yokubona ukungafani komgaqo-nkqubo wezemali phakathi kweBhanki yaseJapan kunye ne-Federal Reserve kufuneka i-Federal Reserve iqale ukuhamba ngamazinga amaninzi ngonyaka. NgoSeptemba, i-Bhanki yaseJapan yazisa ulawulo lwengqungquthela yokuvelisa i-curve [faka ikhonkco.] Isiseko sazo sokulungisa isivuno seminyaka engama-0 kwi-0%, esiza kunceda inkxaso yokuboleka ukuxhasa ngemali iiprojekthi zeziseko zophuhliso zorhulumente ngenqanaba elibuyisiweyo lokubuyisela. Olu hlobo lwekhava elivunyiweyo lomvuno ngendlela yorhulumente eyenza ukuthengwa kwetyala likaRhulumente lingaqwalaselwa njengoluhlobo lwemali ye-helicopter okanye ukubonelela ngotyalo-mali olungenakubeka ingozi kwiiprojekthi zikaRhulumente.
Kwiiveki ezilandelayo ukhetho lukaMongameli eMelika, siye sabona ukusabalala phakathi kweNqaku leNondyebo ye-US iminyaka eyi-10 kunye nobudlelwane boburhulumente baseJapan obuneminyaka eli-10 banzi ngamanqaku angaba ngu-230 ukusuka kwi-150bps. Ukwandiswa okugqithisileyo kweemali zetyala lekarhulumente elifanisa kubonisa ukungafani kwemigaqo-mali kwaye uye wadlala indima ephambili kwaye unokuqhubeka nokudlala inxaxheba ekukhuphukeni okukhawulezayo kwi-USD / JPY kwinqanaba le-99/101 esilibonile kulo nyaka.
Ukongeza kwi-yen yaseJapan ebuthathaka, intengo ye-EUR ngokumelene ne-dollar yase-United States nayo yawa ngo-2016 emva kokukhethwa koongameli baka-US. Abaninzi bajonge ingxabano yezopolitiko kunye ne-European Central Bank ekunciphiseni njengoko i-Fed ingaxhaswa kwizinto ezinamandla eziqinisa ukunyuka kwexabiso lentengo njengesizathu sokuthenga iidola zase-US ngokubhekiselele kwezinye iindleko ezinkulu.
Icandelo loRhwebi
Icandelo lezorhwebo eliye laholela ekubeni amandla eDola ayingxenye yokucatshulwa kunye nokunciphisa inxalenye yeengcamango ukuba amazwe azuze kakhulu kwiintengiso zamahhala ziyakwazi ukulimaza ngeendleko zabo ukuze kuzuze i-dollar yaseMelika kwiminyaka ezayo. Ingqiqo yale ngxabano iphuma kwiinguqu ezitshintshwayo kwizivumelwano zorhwebo phantsi kolawulo lukaMongameli we-US olulindele.
NgoMvulo, ngoNovemba 21, 2016, uMongameli ukhethiweyo uDonald Trump wathi ukhangele ukurhoxisa i-United States kwi- Trans-Pacific Partnership okanye i-TPP. Ngokuthe ngqo, uTrump ubhengeze, "Ndiza kukhupha isaziso sethu ngenjongo yokurhoxisa kwi-Trans-Pacific Partnership, inhlekelele enokwenzeka kwilizwe lethu. "Kunoko, siza kuxoxisana ngokufanelekileyo, ama-trade treatments amadiliya azisa imisebenzi kunye noshishino ngokubuyela kumanxweme ase-American."
I-TPP ineJapan kunye ne-United States kunye namanye amazwe ase-Asiya kunye nokukwazi ukubandakanya i-China kwaye ibonise umnqweno we-Trump okhethiweyo ukuba angabandakanyeli kwiintengiso zorhwebo apho i-United States ingenayo ixabiso elikhoyo lexabiso langoku. Ngokukhawuleza emva kokuba uTrump echaza injongo yakhe yokuthabatha i-US kwi-TPP, uNdunankulu uShinzo Abe waseJapan wachaza ukuba uya kuvela ngaphandle kokubandakanyeka kwe-United States ethi "I-TPP ayiyi kuba nenjongo ngaphandle kwe-United States."
Nangona i-TPP ngumzekelo omnye, kunceda ukubonisa indlela iUnited States ingaqala ngayo ukukhupha kwiintengiso ezenzelwe ukuba zenze i-macroeconomic ye-trade trade free on head.
Ukongezelela, njengokuba uqoqosho oluncinci okanye abo banokungcebeleka ngokuthe ngqo kumhlaba njengamazwe axhomekeke kumazwe angaphandle okanye abaxhomekeke kwimpahla baqala ukuvakalelwa ukuba nobunzima bokurhweba kolawulo olutsha, kunokuqhubeka nokungaqali ukuhamba kwezorhwebo. Ukuguqulwa okunjalo kunokuqhubeka nokubona i-USD iqinisa kunye nokunyanzeliswa kwezinye iindleko ezixhomekeke kumashishini angaphandle kunye nokuxhaswa kwemali.
Yintoni ekumele uyibukele phambili
Ngendlela encinane kwinto omele uyibukele, gcina iliso kwi-index ye dollar ukuze ubone ukuba ngaba ukuphakama kweminyaka engama-14 kuqhubeka. Olunye urhwebo lweemarike eziphambili ukubukela luya kuba ityala likarhulumente kwaye ngokukodwa ukusabalala phakathi kokukhula okufana nokukhula kwekarhulumente njenge-US ukuya eJapan iminyaka yesityalo.
Ukuba i-curve isivuno kwaye isasazeka iyaqhubeka ikhulisa, kuya kubakho ukubonisa amandla angaphezulu kwidola kunye nokuba ubuthakathaka beYen kunye nobuthathaka kwezinye iirhafu zemali . Olunye urhwebo lwetyala lokubukela umvuzo we-US 2-year yield. Isivuno seminyaka emi-2 se-US sibonakala njengommeli kumgaqo-nkqubo we-Federal Reserve kwiminyaka ezayo. Kwiinyanga ezimbini zokugqibela, sibone i-US 2-year yield yields from ~ 75 points point to close 110 points. Ngenxa yokuthambekela kwe-Federal Reserve ukunyuka ngamaphuzu angama-25 xa kubona kufanelekile, ukunyuka okunjalo kwimveliso eminyaka emibili kubonisa ukuba u-1½ ukunyuka kwe-Federal Reserve kuye kwabiza ixabiso ukusuka kunyaka-2018.
Ukunyuka okunye kwimveliso eminyaka emibili kuya kubonisa intshukumo embi yi-Federal Reserve ngokubhekiselele ekunyuseni kwexabiso lentengo, okungabangela ukuba umgangatho onamandla kwiDola ye-US ukukhawuleza.
Ukongeza kwi-tyala elimeleyo, abahwebi banokugcina isohlo ekusebenzeni kweemarike ezikhulayo ezinxulumene ne-US Dollar. Ekupheleni konyaka we-2016, iimarike ezivelayo eziza kuzisa amandla angaphezulu kwe-USD kwizinga elibanzi liza kuba yiRandi yaseMzantsi Afrika, i-Peso yaseMexico ne- Yuan yaseTshayina .