Iimakethi ze-Bear ziqhelekile, ziya kuhlala zihlala, zifunde ukujongana nayo
Abazange babone kuphela i-capital income engabonakaliyo yonyulo kunyaka ngamnye wokudlulayo, babenandipha umdlalo ohlawulayo owawutshintshe isahlulo sokuqala esihlawulelayo ekuveliseni ngokuhlawulela ngokwenene. Kwakunjalo, ukubeka ngokucacileyo, enye yezona zihlandlo ezifanelekileyo , ezilula kakhulu ukuba zizityebi kwizizukulwana.
Zininzi zabantu. Oku kwakuyinyani ngokunyanisekileyo kubanikazi benkosi yaseburhulumenteni yeblue blue . Cinga ukuba ngaphaya kweminyaka emathandathu okanye yesibhozo esandul 'ukuhamba, igama elikhulu, abaqhubi beemali-mhlaba zeemarike zamasheya bathengise i-cash dividends ye- dividfour yezinto ezithandayo ezingazange zibonwe. Abanikazi bakaJohnson & Johnson bebukele ukuhlawula ipesenti zabo zenyuka malunga nama-55%; I-Coca-Cola 61%; Clorox 64%; I-McDonald ka-66%; Exxon Mobil 76%; I-Colgate-Palmolive 77%; Hershey 96%; I-Depot yasekhaya 162%. I-Starbucks, ikhenketho enkulu yekhofi yehlabathi, isuka ekuhlawuleleni isahlulo kuyo yonke into yokuqalisa enye. Ukusukela ekuqaleni kwexesha lokulinganisa, sele ufumene i-25% yexabiso lakho lonke lexabiso ngokuphindaphindiweyo kwindlela yokwahlula uhlawulele kwenye indawo, uchithe, isipho kwisithando, okanye wenze nantoni na into oyifunayo (oku kuthatha ukuba uthathe Ixabiso eliphakamileyo nelisezantsi libekwe kulo nyaka kwaye libalinganisane kunye, linganiki nendawo enkulu yokungena kunye neyoyikekayo malunga nezo zifumaneke kwixesha leveki ezingama-52).
Ukongeza kweli qiniso elincinci, ngoku uya kuqokelela ixabiso le-cash-on-initial ye-9.1% (ukuba ulungelelanisa isahlulelo "izaphulelo", ngaphezulu kwe-12.2% kwinkunzi-mali oyifake kuyo intsika).
Oku akuyiyo i-fluke okanye i-outliers, ibonisa ukuba amava abanelungelo lokulingana baye bafumana ngokutyalomali kwimarike yemasheya kwiminyaka emashumi edlulileyo.
Ingumxholo endala njengexesha. Kukho ilizwi elidala kwiWall Street ukusuka kwixesha langoku: "Imarike yemasheya iphakamisa udonga lokukhathazeka." Ngobuninzi bokubamba isandla, ukukhathazeka, ukuxhala, kunye noloyiko olwenziwe yiintloko malunga nento yonke ukusuka kumanani angenasempesheni ukuya kwisikwere sikazwelonke, inzuzo yenkampani igcinwe. Ezi ntlawulo-eziyizona ziseko zexabiso langaphakathi ngalinye-zenze indlela yazo zibe ngezandla zabanikazi, zibaxhobisa njengoko iibhiliyoni zabantu ehlabathini lonke zityhuzula amazinyo, zidla i-chocolate bar, zalela ikhofi, zisela i-soda , bavuselela imoto yabo ngephethiloli, bayeka i-cheeseburger, bahlamba iimpahla zabo, okanye bathatha indawo yabo.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kweSitokhwe seShishini kwi-33% okanye ngaphezulu Akunjalo
Xa ukhangela emva kwembali, imakethe yokutshatyalaliswa kwemali ye-33% okanye ngaphezulu, i-peak-to-pit, ayikho into ekhethekileyo. Xa i-Dow Jones Industrial Average ibetha phezulu kwe-18,351.40, kufuneka ucinge ngengqondo, "Ngokuqinisekileyo, nantoni na apha phakathi kwehla kunye nokuhla kwe-12,111.92 ishishino njengesiqhelo, akukho nto ikhethekileyo kwaye, ngokwenene, inokwenzakala". Ukuba unayo i-$ 500,000 kwiakhawunti yakho yomhlala-phantsi, oko kuya kuthetha ukulahlekelwa kwephepha kwixabiso eliqatshelwe kwi-$ 170,000, ekukhohliseni ukuya kuma-330,000.
Ngenxa yokuba isabelo sakho sempahla sithe tye kwaye awunakucaciseli kakhulu kwii-securities ngabanye, oku akufanele kwenzeke ngaphezu kwesigxina sokuvuma. Akukufaneki nje ukuba uqaphele ukuba ube sele ujikeleze ibhloko ngaphandle kokuba umntu onengqiqo uyaphuma xa iindudumo zemvula zibonisa uMhlaba ngamanzi okanye ukukhanya kwelanga kukugubungela ilanga.
I-Billionaire uCharlie Munger, iqabane loshishino lweWarren Buffett kwixesha elidlulileyo lekhulu leminyaka elidlulileyo, luchaza ukuba yena noBuffett bajonge ixabiso lemarike ecatshulwayo yokulingana kwabo eBerkshire Hathaway , inkampani ebambe iqela apho baqhuba khona iqela labo, ukuwa ngamashumi ama-50% okanye ngaphezulu, ukuphakama kwinqanaba, amaxesha amathathu ahlukeneyo kwimisebenzi yabo, kaninzi kunokungatshintshi nto kumandla okufumana ibhizinisi eliphantsi. U-Munger, owaziwayo ngokusondeza kwakhe, ngokungahambisani nentswela-ntliziyo, ucinga ukuba uyisidenge xa uvumela ukuba kukukhathaze; Ukuba ufumanisa ukuba awuvumelani, awufanelanga ukulingana okuphezulu okuvelisa ixesha kwaye kufuneka ube nomxholo wokungazisebenzisi njengendlela yokuzityeba okanye ukufumana ukuzimela kwemali .
Nangona oko kungase kube nzima, uchanekile ukuba akudingeki ukuba utyalomise kwiimpahla zokugcina izityebi .
UBenjamin Graham, umcebisi kaBuffett kunye noyise wohlalutyo lwezokhuseleko, wabhala ngendlela abanye abatshali-mali abakhetha ngayo izinto ngaphandle kwempahla , njengendawo yokuhlala, nangona iindleko zingaphantsi okanye zifana ngenxa yokuba bekungadingeki babandezeleke ukuba bazi ukuba umntu enye - enye yabanikazi babo-benza impazamo ngokuthengisa okungaphantsi kwenyaniso, ixabiso langaphakathi; eqinisweni, indlela umntu ofanayo oya kuhleka ngayo isibonelelo sebhola ephantsi kwecandelo loomatshini befama okanye isakhiwo sezindlu sasiza kukhanda iinwele zakhe okanye sibe nesilonda ukuba umntu wenza okufanayo kunye nobunini bakhe buncinci kwi shishini elikhulu. Abantu baqine. I-Logic ayisoloko iyindlela engafanelekanga yokujonga ihlabathi kubantu abaninzi.
Ukuphazamiseka kwemakethi emancinci kuncinci kakhulu, ukuba akunjalo ngokuthe rhoqo. NjengoBen Casselman kwi-FiveThirtyEight ukubeka:
Ukususela ngowe-1950, i-S & P 500 inokuhla kwelanga elilodwa okanye ngaphezulu kwama-100 ngamaxesha. Kuye iintsuku ezimbini zeentsuku apho kwawa ngama-5 ekhulwini okanye ngaphezulu. Ukuphazamiseka kokunyakaza okufutshane, apho ukuhla kwehla okukhulu kunabininzi kwiintsuku zokurhweba eziliqela, zixhaphake ngakumbi.
Kodwa elowo lwawo lwaye lwaye lwalandelwa yi-rebound. Maxa wambi ifika ngokukhawuleza. Ngamanye amaxesha kuthatha iiveki okanye iinyanga. Kodwa xa ifika, ifika ngokukhawuleza. Ukuba ulinde de kube i-rebound ibonakale ngokucacileyo, sele ulahlekelwe yimpumelelo enkulu.
Indlela yokuPhepha ukuThatyelwa kweShishini seShishini
Yintoni omele uyenze ukuba ukulungiswa kwangoko kutshintshela ukuhlaselwa kweemakethe egciniweyo okuhlala iminyaka kwaye kuthatha ihafu yexabiso lakho akhawunti? Enye into yabanikazi be-Hershey Inkampani eyenziwe phakathi kuka-2005 no-2009 xa isitokethi sasivela kwi-$ 67.40 ukuya kwi-30 30.30 ngesabelo ngasinye: Gxininisa kwimisebenzi engaphantsi (ukuba iimvuzo kunye nezihlawulelo ziqhubeka ziphakama, kufanele ukuba zilungele ekugqibeleni, ngokuyinxalenye njengenxalenye iphothifoliyo eyahlukeneyo apho ukungaphumeleli kwinqanaba kungenziwa yimpumelelo engalindelekanga kwelinye), uthenge rhoqo rhoqo, uphinde uvuselele izabelo. Kungase kuzwakale kukuqhayisa . Kungenzeka kube lula. Yona yodwa indlela ebonakaliswa ngayo ukuba kwenziwe imali eninzi ngexesha elide ngenxa yokuba awukwazi ukufumana ixesha lemarike yempahla okanye ungakwazi ukuchaza kwangaphambili i-Apple okanye i-Google elandelayo naluphi na umlinganiselo wokuqinisekiswa.
Yiyo leyo. Okanye, njengoko ngamanye amaxesha ndifuna ukuthetha: Thenga izinto ezintle, hlawula ixabiso elifanelekileyo, uze uhlale [ngasemva]. Yiyo iresiphi. Yenza unyaka emva konyaka, iminyaka elishumi emva kweminyaka elishumi, ngokukodwa kwindlela ephumelelayo yentlawulo kunye neentlawulo eziphantsi kunye neendleko, kwaye konke kungenakukwazi ukuphelisa isityebi ngaphezu kweminyaka engama-25 kuya kwe-50. Ukuba ithe yahluleka, ubuncinane uya kuthuthuzelwa ukwazi ukuba akukho nto iyenzayo, nokuba kunjalo, ngokuba iMelika iwile.
Ekugqibeleni, ukuba ufumanisa ukuba uphuke ngokukrakra okubandayo, qwalasela ngokucacileyo isicwangciso sakho kunye nenkqubo yokucinga. Wenza into engalunganga. Ukuba ungumntu ozenzayo kwaye uhlala kufuphi neofisi zeVanguard, cinga ukuhlawula imali engaphezulu kwe-0.30% kwimirhumo yonyaka ukuze ubambe isandla sakho kwaye usebenze nawe kwisicwangciso somntu phantsi kweprogram yabo yokucebisa; ukuthetha nawe phantsi kwinqanaba xa udibanisa. Ukuba awufuni okanye ufuna indlela ehambelana nayo, indlela ephezulu yokunxibelelana (efuna ngokubanzi inetha elithe xaxa), fumana isebe elikhulu lolawulo lwebhanki okanye umcebisi-mali obhalisiweyo ozimeleyo kunye nomphathi wephothifoliyo ofanelekileyo onokumthemba kwaye ukhokhe i-1% 2%. (Ngaphezu koko, kukho izibonelelo ezongezelelweyo; umzekelo, unako ukufumana ii- UTMA zamahhala ezisungulwe kubantwana bakho, abazukulu, abancinci, abazalwana, okanye abathandekayo ukuba ibhalansi yakho yekhawunti iphakamileyo ngokwaneleyo, ngokuqhelekileyo kunye neentlawulo eziphantsi okanye ezihlawulisiweyo.)
Iingcamango ezimbalwa zokugqibela ezithengiswayo kwiMashishini yeMpahla
Ukuba usenokuba neengxaki malunga nokuphazamiseka kwemakethe ye-stock, ungase ufune ukuqwalasela ukutshintsha isabelo sakho kwiimpahla ezingcono zokuhlala ixesha elide , ezifana nokuxuba okuxakekileyo kwemali kunye nezibophelelo ezinxulumene nezitokisi. Kwisabelo se-stock of your portfoliyo, iifowuni ezihlawula igalelo ziyancipha kwiimarike zeebhere ngenxa yento eyaziwa ngokuba ngumxhasi wemveliso . Ngaphandle koko, cinga ukusebenzisa i- dividend programs reinvestment programs ukwenzela ukuba uthenge isistim ngokuthe ngqo kwiinkampani kunye kunye neenjini zabo zokudlulisa, ufumane isheke ngokwenyama kwi-imeyile, kwaye kufuneka ukhathazeke ngento enye ngelixa ulahlekelwa yintengo yemarike: Ingaba isheke likhula minyaka yonke? Hlanganisa iipotifoliyo yamashishini angama-25 + ngokuhamba kwesikhathi usebenzisa le ndlela - indlela efanayo efanayo esetyenziswa ngu-janitor uRonald Funda xa ehlawulela i-$ 8,000,000 yemali kwimisebenzi emfutshane-kwaye kulula ukuyichitha ingxolo.