Ukuqonda ukuBambisana phakathi kwamaxabiso eAset and Rates Interests
Konke oku kunokubonakala kumnandi ukuba unelungelo lokuhlala kwiindawo ezibalulekileyo ngaphambi kokunciphisa inzala, ukuvumela ukuba ufumane i-boom yonke indlela eya phezulu, ekuboneni ukubaluleka kwakho kukhule ngokuphakamileyo kwaye kunyuka ngamnye kunyaka odlulileyo. nangona ixabiso lokunyuka kwexabiso elithe xaxa liye linyuka izinga lokunyuswa kwenkxaso engenayo , nto leyo ibaluleke kakhulu . Akunjalo kakhulu kumtyalo-mali osisigxina kunye / okanye abo bengenazo iimpahla ezibekwe bucala abafuna ukuqala ukugcina, oko kubandakanya abantu abadala abasesikolweni esiphakamileyo okanye kwiikholeji, bengena kubasebenzi okokuqala.
Oku kungathi kunqabileyo ukuba awuqhelani nemali okanye uhlalutyo lwezoshishino kodwa kwenza umqondo omkhulu xa uyeka ukucinga ngako. Xa uthengisa utyalo-mali, yintoni oyithengayo ngokwenene ukuhamba kwemali ezayo; inzuzo okanye ukuthengiswa kwezinto, ukulungiswa kwexesha, umngcipheko, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, kunye neerhafu , ukholelwa ukuba ziya kunika inqanaba elaneleyo lokubuyisela , lichazwe njengengqungquthela yokukhula kwonyaka , ukuhlawulela ukuba ungasebenzisi amandla akho okuthenga okwangoku; ukuyichitha kwizinto ezibonelela ngeenkonzo ezinjengeemoto, izindlu, iindwendwe, izipho, i-wardrobe entsha, ukulungiswa komhlaba, ukutya kwiindawo zokutyela ezilungileyo, okanye nayiphi na into evelisa ingcinga yolonwabo okanye uvuyo ebomini bakho, ukwandisa oko kubaluleke kakhulu: Usapho, ngabahlobo, inkululeko ngaphezu kwexesha lakho, kunye nempilo enhle.
Xa amaxabiso e-asethi aphakamileyo ngenxa yexabiso lentlawulo ephantsi, ithetha idoli nganye ochitha ukuyithenga ukuthenga imali yotyalo-mali , i-interest, rents , okanye enye ingeniso (kokubili okanye ngokujonga, kwimeko yeenkampani ezigcina i-earnings ukukhula kunokuba zihlawulele kubani-nxaxheba ).
Enyanisweni, umtyalo-mali onokuqhelanisekile uza kwenza iikharkheels kwithemba lemarike yempahla enikezela isivuno semali engaphezulu kwe-2x okanye i-3x kwisivuno sesibhambathiso se-Nondyebo okanye i-market real estate enganika u-5x okanye i-10x kwisivuno sesibhambathiso seNondyebo. Ngenxa yezinto ezilahlekileyo ekuthwaleni ixabiso kwi- balance sheet , ezenza ukuba zibukeke zihlwempuzekile ephepheni, ziya kufumana imali engenayo yenyanga yenyanga, ebenza bafumane ngaphezulu; imeko yezoqoqosho ezithintekayo ukubetha ukubonakala kwezimali.
Sekunjalo, nangona uyazi konke oku, unokuzibuza ukuba kutheni amaxabiso asethi awela xa kuthe Yintoni ebangela ukuhla kwehla? Umbuzo omangalisayo. Nangona kunzima kakhulu ukuba siza kugqitha kwi-mechanics, entliziyweni yolu mbandela, ngokuyininzi kuya kwizinto ezimbini.
Ixabiso le-Asset Yehla Xa amaRhafu enyukayo aphakama ngenxa yokuba iNdleko yeThuba le "Ingozi-Namaxabiso" iyaba ngakumbi
Ingaba bayayiqonda okanye ayifumanekanga, abaninzi abantu banengqiqo ngokwaneleyo yokuthelekisa oko bangayifumana kwi-stocks, bonds , okanye i- real estate kwizinto ezingayifumana kwimali yokupaka imali kwindawo ekhuselekileyo. Kubatyalimi abancinci, oku kudlalwa ngumyinge wenzala ehlawulwa kwi-akhawunti ye-akhawunti yokugcina imali e-FDIC, ukujonga i-akhawunti, i- akhawunti yemarike yemali , okanye imali yemali yemali .
Kubanini-mali abakhulu, amashishini kunye namaziko, oku kubizwa ngokuba yi-"free-free" rate kwii-bills ze-US Treasury, iibhondi, kunye namanqaku, axhaswa ngamandla apheleleyo agunyazisiweyo kaRhulumente waseUnited States.
Ukuba iirhafu "ezikhuselekileyo" zanda, wena kunye nabanye abaninzi abatyala-mali, kuya kufuna ukuba abuyele ephezulu kwimali yakho; ukuthatha ingozi yokufumana amashishini okanye izakhiwo zezindlu. Oku kungokwemvelo. Kutheni uzibhenca ukulahlekelwa okanye ukungazinzi xa uhlala khona, uqokelele umdla, kwaye uyazi ukuba ekugqibeleni uza kuzaliswa (okutyunjelwayo) inqununu yexabiso elizayo kwixesha elizayo? Azikho iingxelo zonyaka ezifundwayo, akukho- 10-K yokufunda, akukho zikhompyutheni zokubhaliweyo zokusetyenziswa.
Umzekelo osebenzayo unokunceda.
Khawucinge nge-10-year bond bond ye-Treasury ye-2.4%. Ukhangele kwisitokethi esithengisa i-$ 100.00 ngesabelo ngasinye kwaye ihlaziye igalelo ngalinye ngesabelo se-$ 4.00.
Kuloo $ 4.00, i-$ 2.00 ihlawulwa njengenzuzo yemali. Oku kubangela isivuno se-earnings esingu-4.00% kunye nesivuno sokwabiwa kwe-2.00%.
Ngoku, cinga i- Federal Reserve ikhulisa inzala . UNondyebo we-10 weminyaka uphelela ukunikezela u-5.0% ngaphambi kwentela. Konke okulinganayo (kwaye akunjalo, kodwa ngenxa yokucaca okufundiswayo, siya kuthathwa njengaloo mzuzwana), abatyali-mali banokufuna i-premium efanayo ukuba ibe nesitokisi. Okokuthi, ngaphambi kokunyuka kwezinga, abatyali-mali babezimisele ukuthenga izabelo ngokutshintshisa ii-1.6% ekubuyeni okungekho (ukuhlula phakathi kwe-4.00% yokufumana isivuno kunye no-2.40% wokuvunyanwa kweNondyebo). Xa iNondyebo ivelise ku-5.00%, ukuba ulwalamano olufanayo lugcina, bafuna i-earnings yield of 6.60%, eguqulela kwisivuno sesahlulo se-3.30%. Ezinye izinto ezingafaniyo, ezifana nokutshintshwa kwindleko yesakhiwo semali (ngaphezulu kweso simzuzwana), indlela kuphela yeso sithuba esinokunikela ngayo inqanaba lentengo kunye nesahlulelo kuya ku-$ 100.00 ngesabelo ngasinye kwi-60, 60 ngeesabelo ngasinye, ukuhla malunga no-40.00%.
Oku akuyona ingxaki kuwo wonke umtyalo-mali oqeqeshweyo, owenziwe, ukuba ke, ukuba izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lihlala lingenalo. Ukuba kukho nantoni, luphuhliso olukhulu kuba idoli yabo rhoqo ixabisa imali , izabelo ezibuyiswe kwakhona , kunye neentsha-mali ezitsha ezifakwe kwii-paychecks okanye enye imithombo yengeniso ngoku ithengi imali engaphezulu, izabelo ezingaphezulu, inzala eninzi, imali engaphezulu kunokwenzeka ngaphambili. Bazuza kwakhona njengoko iinkampani zinokuvelisa imali ephezulu kwiinkqubo zokuthengwa kwamashishini .
Amaxabiso e-Asset Awela Xa amaRhafu enyukayo aphakama ngenxa yeendleko zeNguqulelo zeMali kwiiNkampani kunye neZakhiwo eziMahia, ukuNciphisa kwiNgxowa-mali
Ixabiso lesibini lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lexabiso lenzelwa ukuba ixabiso lenzalo liwe xa ixabiso lentengo landa. Xa ishishini liboleka imali, liqhuba ngeentlawulo zemali zebhanki okanye ngokukhupha izibophelelo zenkampani . Ukuba amaxabiso enzala inkampani inokungena kwiimarike ziphezulu kakhulu kunomyinge wenzala ehlawula ityala layo elikhoyo, kuya kufuneka ukuba ilahle imali engaphezulu kweyonke idola yamatyala evelele xa kufika ixesha lokuhlaziya. Oku kuya kubangela ukunyuka kweendleko ezinkulu . Inkampani iya kuba yinzuzo encinci kubanini beebhanki kwiibhanki ezitshatswayo ezisetyenziselwa ukulungiswa kweebhanki ezidala, ezikhulayo, okanye izibhanki ezandul 'ukukhutshwa ezifunekayo ukuxhasa imali okanye ukunyusa, ngoku zifuna ngaphezulu ukuhamba kwemali. Oku kubangela ukuba "umvuzo" kumlinganiselo wexabiso-kuya-umvuzo ukuhla, oku kuthetha ukuba ukunyuka kwexabiso kuyenyuka ngaphandle kokuba isitoksi sithintele ngemali efanelekileyo. Faka enye indlela, ukuze isitokethi sihlale sinye intengo ngokwenene, ixabiso lentengo kufuneka linciphise.
Oku, kubangela ukuba umlinganiselo wokuba nomdla wokunciphisa umnqweno ukuhla, ngokunjalo, ukwenza inkampani ibonakale ikhuselekile. Ukuba loo mngcipheko ophezulu unokwaneleyo, kunokubangela ukuba abatyali-mali bafune i-premium yengozi enkulu, ukunciphisa intengo yesitoko ngaphezulu.
Amashishini afanelekileyo ase-Asset afuna ezininzi iimpahla, izityalo kunye nezixhobo ziphakathi kwezona zisengozini kulolu hlobo lomngcipheko wezinga lomdla. Ezinye iifemu - cinga ngeMicrosoft emva kwee-1990 xa yayingenasikweletu kwaye ifunwa kakhulu encinci kwindlela yezinto ezibonakalayo zokusebenza, inokuxhasa imali nayiphi na into ephuma kwiakhawunti yayo yokujonga ngaphandle kokucela ibhanki okanye iWall Street ngemali - uhambe ngomnxeba ngolu ngxaki, ungeyithinteli ngokupheleleyo.
Zininzi iintlobo zamashishini ngokwenene ziphumelela xa kwaye kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Umzekeliso omnye: I-inshurensi yaseBerkshire Hathaway, eyakhiwe kwiminyaka engama-50 + edluleyo ngoku ngoku-billionaire uWarren Buffett . Phakathi kwekheshi kunye nezibhanki zemali-mali, inkampani ihlezi kwi-R660 billion kwizinto ezingenanto. Ukuba amazinga enzala ayenyusa ipesenteji ehloniphekileyo, iqumrhu liza kubakho ngokukhawuleza lizuze iibhiliyoni kwiibhiliyoni zeedola ngemali engenayo eyongezelelweyo ngonyaka ukusuka kulabo abagcina indawo yokugcina impahla. Kwiimeko ezinjalo, lunokuba lunomdla ngokukhethekileyo njengoko izinto ezivela kwinto yokuqala - abatyali-mali abafuna ixabiso lentengo elisezantsi ukwenzela ukuba bahlawule ixabiso, iibhondi kunye neenqaku zibonelela ngenzuzo ephezulu. kukhula. Ukuba ishishini lihleli ngenguqu efanelekileyo yenguqu, kungenzeka ukuba intengo yesitokhwe inokunyuka ekugqibeleni; enye yezinto ezenza utyalo-mali lube lunandi.
Okufanayo kuya kwi-real estate. Cinga ukuba unayo i-$ 500,000 kwi-capital equity ufuna ukuyifaka kwiprojekthi yendawo yokuhlala; mhlawumbi ukwakha isakhiwo seofisi, ukwakha iiyunithi zokugcina, okanye ukuphuhlisa ivenkile yokushishino ukuze kuqeshwe kumafemu okuvelisa. Naliphi na iprojekthi oyidalayo, uyazi ukuba kufuneka ubeke u-30% ukulingana kuyo ukugcina iphrofayili yakho yengozi, kunye nezinye i-70% ezivela kwimali-mboleko yebhanki okanye eminye imithombo yokuxhasa ngemali. Ukuba inani lamanani landa, iindleko zakho zexabiso liphuma. Oku kuthetha ukuba kufuneka uhlawule ubuncinci ukuthengwa kwepropathi / ukuphuhliswa okanye kufuneka unelisekile ngokuhamba kwemali ephantsi kakhulu; imali eyayiya kwifokethi yakho kodwa ngoku ibuye iqondiswe kubaboleki. Isiphumo? Ngaphandle kokuba kukho ezinye iinguqulelo zokudlala ezigqithise le ngqalelo, ixabiso elicatshulweyo le-propati kufuneka linciphise ngokumalunga nokuba bekuphi. (Abaqhubi abakhulu kwiimarike zendawo yokuhlala bavumi ukuthenga iimpahla abanokuzibamba iminyaka emininzi, ukuxhaswa ngemali ngokukhawuleza ukuze bakwazi ukuhlawula ixabiso lokunciphisa imali. Ukuhlawulwa kwabo ekuzaleni ukukhula okuzayo kuncinci kwaye kuncinci kwimigangatho yezoqoqosho.)