Iqhinga lokuBaluleka kweSitoreji ngokuKhutshwa koPhulo oluPhakamileyo
Kulabo bafuna ukuhlaziywa ngokukhawuleza, sathetha malunga nomlinganiselo we-PEG, kubandakanywa nokusebenza ngemizekelo emininzi ebonisa indlela yokubala ngayo, kwinqaku elibizwa ngokuba usebenzisa i-PEG Ratio yokufumana i-Stock Gems efihliweyo .
Ngendlela elula, umlinganiselo we-PEG isisityebi sezimali esithatha isilinganiso somvuzo-wokufumana umvuzo , okanye umlinganiselo we- P / E njengoko uyaziwa ngokubanzi, kwaye uyayilungisa ukukhula kwenzalo yesabelo ngasinye.
Kutheni uzikhathaza ukufunda le fomyula? Khumbula ukuba intlawulo ohlawulayo ibaluleke kakhulu kwimbuyekezo oyiphendulayo ekugqibeleni . Inkampani enkulu ingaba utsalo-mali olubi xa uchithe kakhulu ukufumana ityala lakho. Injongo yomlinganiselo we-PEG ukuphendula ngeengcinga eziqhelekileyo ukuba ungakhawuleza ngexabiso eliphezulu kwishishini elikhulayo ngokukhawuleza, kwaye unokwenza imali eninzi, kunokuba unakho ukuhlawula intlawulo ephantsi kwenkampani ekhoyo akukho ndawo ekhohliweyo yokwandisa okanye ibona ukuhla kwenzuzo ye- net . Umlinganiselo we-PEG unokunceda ukubonakalisa ukuba ukuqala kokuqala eSilicon Valley kukuba kwi-50x yokufumana imali, ngelixa i-old iron mill ibiza ngexabiso le-8x.
Ukubala isilinganiso se-PEG, usebenzisa le fomyula elandelayo:
I-PEG Ratio = (Intengo ÷ Iintlawulo ngeSabelo ngasinye) ÷ Iintlawulo zonyaka ngokuSahlukelana kwabasebenzi
Kwilizwe elikhethekileyo elinengqiqo elinomdla ozinzileyo kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso , umlinganiselo we-PEG wee-stocks zonke uza kuba yi-1.00, oku kuthetha ukuba isiqingatha se-P / E silingana nesantya sokukhula semali yesabelo ngasinye . Isitokisi esakhulayo inzuzo kwi-10% yayiza kuhweba ngemali eyi-10x.
Isitokisi esakhulayo inzuzo kwi-25% yayiza kurhweba ngama-25x. Ngokuqinisekileyo, eli lungelo lusekelwe kumgangatho oqhelekileyo njengentengiso-mali, ukunyanzelisa phakathi kokwesaba nokuhaha, ithuba lokubiza imali kwiibhondi ngokusekelwe kwimiba enomdla , kwaye kunye nezinye izinto ezibangela ukuba i-PEG ibalo lonke ukutshintsha ngokuhamba kwexesha.
Ulungelo lwe-PEG alusebenzi kwiiShishini ezineziTyebi eziTyebi
Ngokuqhelekileyo, xa inkampani inkulu kakhulu kwaye inenzuzo, ibuyisa ininzi yemali yabanini-mboleko kwifom yezabelo zemali. Oku kunokubangela imeko apho inkampani ibonakala ikhula ngokukhawuleza, kodwa ngaphezu kokukhula kwenzalo-yabasebenzi, abagcini-zimpahla bafumana iisesheke ezinkulu kwi-imeyile abanokuyichithela, banikezele ukusixhasa, okanye bavuselele ngezabelo ezongezelelweyo esitokisini. Xa kunjalo, umlinganiselo we-PEG wodwa awunelisekile kuba kuya kubonakala ukuba enye into enomtsalane ikhangeleka kakhulu, engenakuyinyani.
Kule meko, umlinganiselo we-PEG awusebenzi kakuhle kuba izitokisi ezinamanani aphezulu e-PEG zingasenza i- return totally attractive. Enyanisweni, iimeko ezintle ukuba xa uhlalutya kakhulu umgangatho ophezulu, i-chip chip eluhlaza njenge-Procter & Gamble, i-Colgate-Palmolive, i-Coca-Cola, okanye i-Tiffany & Inkampani, ukubiza ngeenkampani ezimbalwa zehlabathi, kuya kufuneka sebenzisa i-dividend ratio ye-PEG ratio, endaweni yoko.
Indlela yokubala i-PEG Ukulungiswa kwe-PEG
Ukufunda indlela yokubala i-dividend ratio ye-PEG ratio kulula. Intsingiselo yokutshala imali uPeter Lynch icetywe ukuguqulwa kwindlela emininzi eminyaka edluleyo:
Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo lwe-PEG Ratio = (Intengo ÷ Iintlawulo ngeSabelo)
Makhe sijonge kwi-Coca-Cola Inkampani. Xa eli nqaku libhalwa kuqala ngoSeptemba 29, 2012, isitokhwe sithengiswa nge-38.85 ngesabelo ngasinye kwaye saba nemali yesabelo nge-2.05. Isihlomelo sasiyi $ 1.02 ngesabelo ngasinye, okubangela i- dividends yield 2.6%. I- ValueLine Investment Survey iqikelele ukukhula kwenzalo nganye kwisabelo malunga neminyaka emi-3-5 eya ku-8%. Uvumelekile okanye ungavumelani naloo mfanekiso, kodwa ngenjongo yomzekeliso, nguyena esisetyenzisileyo ekubaleni kwethu njengokuba bekufuneka ukuba ufunde indlela yokubala umlinganiselo we-PEG oguqulwe ngayo, ungahlolisanga nayiphi na ifowuni ethile.
Ukuba usebenzisa i-formula ye-PEG yohlobo lwe-PEG, ubungayibala i-PEG ye-Coke njenge:
Inyathelo 1: I- PEG Ratio = ($ 38.85 ÷ $ 2.05) ÷ 8
Inyathelo 2: I- PEG Ratio = 19 ÷ 8
Inyathelo 3: I- PEG Ratio = 2.375
Ingaba iCoca-Cola inene kakhulu? Ukuba ubukele ingqalelo imali oya kuba nayo njengomnini-mboleko kwi-soda enkulu, enexabiso lenene, uya kusebenzisa i-dividend ye-PEG yefomula yomlinganiselo:
Inyathelo 1: Ulungiso lwe-PEG Ratio = ($ 38.85 ÷ $ 2.05) ÷ (8 + 2.6)
Inyathelo 2: Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo lwe-PEG Ratio = 19 ÷ 10.6
Inyathelo lesi-3: Ulungelelaniso lwe-PEG Ratio = 1.793
Kuzo zombini iimeko, ukuba ukukhula kwenzalo yesabelo ngasinye kwacaciswa ngokuchanekileyo, kuya kubonakala ngathi iCoke ayinakuthandwa kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, sinokukuxelela ukususela kwisethi yamibini yeenombolo ukuba inkampani, ngoxa ngokuqinisekileyo ingabibi, ixabiso elincinci kunomlinganiselo we-PEG kuphela oya kukholelwa.
Ukujonga indlela Ulwahlulo olulungiselelweyo Ulungelo lwe-PEG olusebenza kumzekelo wethu
Amava alandelayo agqiba oku. Njengoko ndihlaziya le nqaku ngoFebruwari 22, 2016, intengo ye-Coca-Cola ye-stock is $ 44.03 ngesabelo ngasinye, imali eyilindeleke ngayo i-$ 2.00 ngesabelo ngasinye, kwaye isahlulo sayo si $ 1.40 ngesabelo ngasinye. (Qaphela: Kukho imiba yeengxelo zesikhashana, ngokukodwa ezibandakanya amaxabiso okuguqulelwa kwemali yangaphandle, kubangele ukuba i-Coke ingeniso ibonakale iphantsi kakhulu kunokuba ingafanele ibe phantsi komlinganiselo wokufumana imali.)
Kwiminyaka engama-3.5 ukususela ekuqaleni kokushicilelwa okokuqala, ubuya kukufumana ukubuyiswa okupheleleyo kwe-$ 9.095 ngesabelo kwi-$ 38.85 yakho yokutshala imali, equkethe i-$ 5.18 kwimali engenayo engenayo engenayo kunye ne-3.915 yee-share in dividends, okanye i-23.41% ngokubanzi. Oku kusebenze kwinqanaba lokukhula kwonyaka wendawo engaphantsi kwe-6.2%, engabonakaliyo kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo ilungele oko uhlawule. Oku kuyinyani ngokunyanisekileyo kunikwe amandla oshishino. Njengomnini weCokeke, unobulungisa kwiinkampani ezinkulu zokuphuza emhlabeni. Kuninzi kune-carbonate soda, ithengisa kwaye ihambisa yonke into esuka kwijusi le-orange kunye netiyi kubisi, ikhofi kunye neziphuzo zamandla. Kunjalo kakhulu, inika i-3.5% yazo zonke iziyobisi ezingenakunxila ezisetyenziswa ngabantu abasemhlabeni, kubandakanywa namanzi ompompo. Isabelo esisodwa esithengiwe kwi-IPO ngo-1919 ukuya kuma-R40 ama-40, kunye neengeniso ezibuyisiwe , ngoku zifanele ukufikelela kumntla we-15,000,000. Ukuba sasiye kwenye iNgxaki yokuCaluleka kweNtlupheko, iingxaki zefayili eziya kuphawulwa yizona ziphantsi, ziphantsi kakhulu kunesitokhwe esithengiswa esidlangalaleni. Enyanisweni, ngexesha lokudakumba kokugqibela, omnye u-bhankini waseFlorida waphendulela idolophu yakhe kwikomkhulu le-million kwikomiti ye-United States ngokunceda abantu bafumane i-Coke stock, ezininzi zeengxowa ezadalwa zikhoyo namhlanje.
Omnye Omkhulu iPitfall yokubala i-Divid Ratio ehlengahlengisiweyo I-PEG Isingenakwenzeka Xa izinto zexesha elilodwa, ukunyuka kweMali, okanye ezinye iimeko ezingaqhelekanga Ukuphazamiseka kwemivuzo
Umngcipheko wokuqala wokusebenzisa umlinganiselo we-PEG oguqulwayo olwahlukileyo uyayiphatha njengombhalo weetriki zamatriki ayifaki esikhundleni sokwahlulela okucingileyo. Ukwazi ukuba ziphi iinombolo ezibonisa ubume bezoqoqosho zifuna ukwazi ukuhlalutya kunye neengxelo zengeniso kunye nokucima i-balance balance sheet . Ngenxa yokuba sixoxe ngeNkampani yeCoca-Cola, kuya kuba lula ukuba ndiqhubeke ndichazela kuyo kunokuba ndiqalise iqela elitsha kweli nqanaba.
Kwintsapho yam, sasebenzisa inkqubo ye-Coca-Cola yokubuyisela inzuzo yokufundisa udade wam omncinci malunga nokutyalomali. Ibhizinisi lihle kangangokuba, ngokwemyinge, silindele ukuba lihlanganiswe kakuhle kwi-30, 40, ne-50+ ezayo. Ngaphandle kwaloo nto, nangona kubonakala ngathi kunomlinganiselo ophezulu ohlawulelweyo we-PEG okwangoku, ndaphinda ndiphindwe kabini umyeni wam kunye ne-Coca-Cola yam sondeza namhlanje kwaye sinenjongo yokuhlala sinayo xa sisifa, sidlulisela kubantwana bethu kunye nabazukulu njengenxalenye yentsapho yokuthenjwa . Ukongezelela, ndiba neCoke ekwabelwana ngayo kwiindawo ezithile ze- UTMA esasisungele zona zethu iintswana kunye nabazalwana. Kukhona i-Coke esitokisini kumakhawunti omhlala phantsi kubazali bam. Ndibe nesitokhwe seCokeke esicatshulwa kwiakhawunti yomhlala-mzalwana wam. Ndiyithatha njengombandela wobomi ngokuqhelekileyo, ukuba, nangona naluphi na ukubaluleka kokulinganisela, ngokuqhelekileyo yinto engcono yokongeza kubunini, ukuyikhupha kude.
Siye savuzwa kakuhle ngokwenza oko. I-Coca-Cola ihlawule isahlulo esingaphazamiseki ukususela ngowe-1920. Siye savusa eso sahlulo ngoFebruwari ngamnye unyaka ukususela ngo-1963 kunye nokunyuka okuza kusondela nje iintsuku ezimbalwa ezedlulileyo xa isabelo semali esahlukileyo ngasinye senyuka ngo-6%. Unyaka emva konyaka, u-Coke uyaqhubeka ewahlamba ngemali.
Khangela ngokukhawuleza, nangona ixabiso lekhoyo lemali lika-$ 44.03, ngokufumana imali engama-$ 1.67, i-dividend yangoku ye-$ 1.40, kwaye umhlalutyi oqikelelweyo wokukhula kwiminyaka emihlanu ezayo ye-2.20% unikeza uphawu olukhohlisayo lwalowo umtyalo angalindela. Gcina kwi-formula kwaye uyintoni na?
Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo lwe-PEG Ratio = (Intengo ÷ Iintlawulo ngeSabelo)
Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo IPG Ratio = ($ 44.03 ÷ $ 1.67) ÷ (2.2 + 3.19)
Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo IPG Ratio = 26.37 ÷ 5.39
Ulwahlulo olulungisiweyo IPG Ratio = 4.89
Khumbula ukuba umtyalo-mali oqikelelekileyo kufuneka afune ukuba izitokisi zakhe zibe ne-PEG ratio okanye uhlawulelo lwe-PEG olutshintshileyo lwe-1.00 okanye ngaphantsi kwaye lufanele lube nekhefu ngokukhawuleza ukuba inani liye lidlula 2.00 ixesha elongezelelweyo lexesha engekhoyo imeko; umzekelo, ukuba unomthi omkhulu weCoca-Cola kunye neerhafu ezininzi ezikhethiweyo ezakhiwe ngaphakathi kulo ngenxa yokuba wenze utyalo-mali kwiminyaka emininzi edlulileyo, kusenokuba lunengqondo ukuba ubambe, ingakumbi ukuba unandipha imali engenayo . Kutheni, ngoko, ndingayi kuqhubeka ndibambe into esinayo, kodwa uthenge ngaphezulu?
Elula. Ingeniso yangoku kunye nezinga lokukhula alibonakali ngokuchanekileyo kwizinto ezingundoqo zezoqoqosho ngokwexesha elide. Njengoko lonke ilizwe liye lalwela, idola yaseUnited States iye yafikelela kwixesha eliphakamileyo. I-coke ivelisa inxalenye enkulu yemali engenayo kunye nemali evela ngaphandle kwelizwe layo. I dollar eqinile inzima kangangokuba ezinye zeentlanga apho zenza ishishini zifumana ukukhula okuthe xa kuthengisa ukuthengisa kodwa ukuba ukukhula kweentengiso kubonakala njengokuncipha kweengeniso emva kokuguqulelwa kwidola. Le meko ayigxina. Xa uqala ukukhangela ixesha elide elide elidlula iminyaka elishumi, ababa ngandlela-thile. Yintoni ebalulekileyo kukuba iCoke ithengisa amanzi amaninzi, itiye, ikhofi, ubisi, ijusi kunye ne-soda phantse kuwo onke amagumbi eMhlabeni; ukwabelana ngokuthengwa kunye nezihlawulelo zibuye zibuyise ubuncwane obunokutsha kubanikazi. Ngokona nxalenye, njengoko ixesha lidlulayo, inkampani ikhula kakhulu, inenzuzo ngakumbi, kwaye ixhomekeke ngakumbi kwiindawo apho iqhuba khona imisebenzi yayo. Ukulungiswa kwezi zinto, into endiyicinga ukuba iyona mali isahluko se-PEG esicatshulwayo sincinci kunomlinganiselo obalwe kuwo.
Enye iMiggo Pitfall ye-Dividend Adjusted PEG Ratio Ingummiselo wokuba ube negalelo elithembekileyo malunga nokufumana ukuKhutshwa koKhula
Utyalo-mali abangenamava kunye neengcali ngokufanayo bavame ukubaleka xa kusetyenziswa imilinganiselo yezemali ezifana nesahlulo se-PEG esicatshangelwe ngumntu ongathandabuzekiyo wokuba nethemba elingakumbi malunga nokukhula kwexesha elizayo lemali eyinzuzo nganye. Abahlalutyi beWall Street baziwa ngokuba benza oku. (Njengokhuselo, ukuba ndikhumbuze ukuba ndingangeni kwisicandele esifanayo, ndigcina iingxelo zeengxelo kunye neziqabunga zokukhawuleza zibuyela emva kwamashumi eminyaka eofisini nakwiifayili ezifakela iilayibrari eziye zatshatyalaliswa ukuwa kwehleko, ngamanye amaxesha kwiinyanga zeengxelo ezikhanyayo zibhalwa. Ndiyicacisa ukuba ndiyifunde ngokukhawuleza, ingakumbi ngaphambi kokwenza imali kutyalo-mali olutsha.)
Enye ingozi engaziyo xa kuyamkeleka ukungahoyi ietriki kumaphethelo ephothifoliyo. Ukubuyela kwi-The Coca-Cola Inkampani, njengomzekeliso, kukho amaxesha apho uyakha iphothifoliyo yangasigxina. iphothifoliyo yokubamba kwizizukulwana.