Ukujongwa kwimbali ye-DJIA kwaye kutheni kungabikho okufanelekileyo namhlanje
Kutheni ke, kutheni i-Dow Jones Ishicilelo seShishini seMatriki isasaziwa kangaka? Yintoni eyenza i-DJIA iphelelwe yisikhathi? Le mibuzo emininzi kwaye, kwimimbalwa embalwa elandelayo, ndifuna ukuthatha ixesha lokunika ingcaciso emfutshane enokubangela ukuba ukuqonda okunamandla ngakumbi kwe-anachronism kufikelele ekubongeni kuphela inkcazo yemali kodwa ingqondo yoluntu xa zafika kwiimpahla eziqhelekileyo.
Okokuqala, makhe sihlolisise into oyaziyo ngeDow
I- DJIA , phakathi kwezinye izinto ...
- Ixabiso le-DJIA libalwe ngokusebenzisa ifom esekelwe kwixabiso lokwabiwo-mali lalo candelo ngaphandle kwesinye i-metric njengemali yemarike okanye ixabiso leshishini ;
- Abahleli be -Wall Street Journal banqume ukuba zeziphi iinkampani zifakwe kwi-Dow Jones Industrial Average.
- Ezinye iinkolelo malunga nokusebenza kwembali ye-stock market index, ukuba kwakungengenxa yephutha lemathematika eyenzeka ekuqaleni kwimbali yeDow eyayiqhubekile ukusebenza, i-DJIA iza kuba ngama-30,000, kungekhona iirekhodi ezingama-20,000 ezitshabalalisa. Ngokufanayo, ukuba abahleli beThe Wall Street Journal bengenagqiba ekubeni basuse amaMashishini aMazwe ngamazwe (IBM) kwiinkalo zenkcazo kuphela ukuzongeza kwakhona kwiminyaka neminyaka kamva, i-Dow Jones Industrial Average iya kuba liphindwe kabini ixabiso layo langoku. Omnye umzekelo umlando onokuphindaphindiweyo, ngokuqhelekileyo unamathele kubantu abathetha malunga nokunyamekela okungahambiyo ngaphandle kokuqonda into ethile yolu hlobo, ukuba uninzi lwazo lwangaphambili lwe-Dow Jones Industrial Average lugqibe, luyiyo inyaniso . Ngokudibana kunye nokuthengwa, ukuthenga nokugcina umtyalo-mali ozuze iDow yasekuqaleni kwaye wahlala emva kwakhe emva kokufumana inzuzo eyanelisayo ngokubanzi kunye nokuphela kwipotfoliyo efanelekileyo .
Kuyathakazelisa ukuba, nangona kukho iziphene ezibalulekileyo, ngaphezu kwexesha elide , i-Dow Jones Industrial Average has had a habit of stripping the S & P 500 okuyinto eyakhelwe ngokubhekisele ngakumbi nangona izinto ezibonakala ngathi ziyiziphoso ezibonakalayo ezibalulekileyo njengoko zakhiwe ngoku.
Makhe sihlole i-short-coming of Dow kwiimeko-nga-zizathu
Ukuqonda ngokucacileyo ukugxekwa kwe-Dow Jones Ishicilelo seZoshishino, kunokuba sisizuzise ukuhamba ngazo ngabanye.
Ukugxeka 1: I-Dow Jones I-Industrial Industrial Average focus on the value of share value, kunokuba ixabiso lentengiso okanye ixabiso loshishino lithetha ukuba kungenangqiqo njengoko kungabangela izixhobo ezinokulinganisela okungahambelani ngokukhululeka kobukhulu babo boqoqosho.
Ngenene, akukho nto ikhuselayo yolu hlobo njengoko uluvo lwexabiso lenkcazo kufuneka lugqitywe ngumrhumo we-stock name, onokutshintshwa kwintengiso engenaxabiso elingenanto. Iindaba ezilungileyo kukuba, ngokudlulileyo, ayizange yenze umehluko omkhulu kwimigqaliselo ethile nangona kungekho siqinisekiso sokuba ixesha elizayo liza kuphinda liphinda liphinde liphinde liphinde liphinde liphinde liphindwe.
Enye indlela utyalo-mali angayinqoba ngayo le nto yayiza kubakho iphothifoliyo egcinwe ngqo equlethe zonke iinkampani kwi-Dow Jones Industrial Average, zilinganise ngokulinganayo, kwaye ke izahlula zivunwe ngokwemigaqo ethile; umz., wabuyiselwa kwisigqeba esasasaza isahlulo ngokwawo okanye sabuyiselwa ngokulinganisela phakathi kwazo zonke izinto. Kukho ubungqina obuninzi bezemfundo obungakhokelela ekugqibeleni iphothifoliyo ekwakhiwe ngayo le ndlela yokuguqulwa ingenza ngcono ngakumbi kunendlela engenakulinganisela kwindlela ekhoyo ekhoyo ngoku, nangona oko kungabikho, ukusabalala okulinganayo umngcipheko uza kuba yinzuzo eyongeziweyo enokuthi ulungele ukulungiswa okunjalo.
Ukugxeka 2: I-Dow Jones ye-Industrial Average components, ngelixa elibalulekileyo ngokwemali-mali yemali-mboleko, ingabandakanyi ubuninzi beemali zentengiso yempahla yasemakhaya eyenza ibe ngummeli ongaphantsi-olungeleyo kumava-mali abanobuqokelelwana obubanzi beempahla eziqhelekileyo kwiindawo ezininzi iindidi zeentengo zemarike.
Kukholelwa ukuba i-Dow Jones Industrial Average ukufumana ukunyuka okukhulu okanye ukuncipha ngelixa ubuninzi beendawo ezibalwe ngokubanzi e-United States zihamba ngendlela eyahlukileyo. Oku kuthetha ukuba inombolo yomxholo oyintloko epapashwe kumaphephancwadi kwaye evezwe kwiindaba ezibusuku azibonakali ngokubhekiselele kumava oqoqosho oqhelekileyo otyalo-zimali.
Kwakhona, le ngenye yezo ndawo apho, ngoxa kunjalo, umbuzo umtyalomali kufuneka azibuze yena ngokwakhe, "Yintoni le nto?".
I-Dow Jones Industrial Average i-serviced njenge- proxy "efanelekileyo" yecandelo eliqhelekileyo elilingana nemeko jikelele yabameli bezona zikhulu, eziphambili kakhulu kumashishini amaninzi kuma-United States. Kutheni kubalulekile ukuba ngandlela-thile iqulethe i-market equity market? Yintoni ekuya kunceda nabani na ukuba bacinge ukuba umnini-zimali angavula isitatimende sakhe somrhwebi aze abone indlela akwenza ngayo kakuhle.
Ukugxeka 3: Abahleli be -Wall Street Journal banako ukukwazi ukugqithisa ubunzima xa bebona ukuba ziphi iinkampani ezongezelelweyo okanye zitshintshe kwi-Dow Jones Industrial Average. Oku kwazisa ingxaki yomntu.
Abantu abafezekanga. Abantu benza iimpazamo. Njengoko kushiwo ngaphambili, kwiminyaka emininzi edlulileyo, abahleli beThe Wall Street Journal benza isigqibo esingafanelekanga sokususa iMashishini yezoLimo kwi-International, okanye i-IBM, kwiluhlu lwayo lwezinto. I-IBM yaqhubeka ichithwa isalathisi esibanzi soshishino lwemali kwaye yabuyiswa kwakhona emva kokuhlaziywa okulandelayo kuluhlu lwamacandelo. Ukuba i-IBM ayizange isuswe kwindawo yokuqala, i-DJIA yayiza kuba malunga nokuphindwe kabini kunokuba ikhona ngoku.
Apha, kwakhona, ingxaki ingabalulekanga njengokuba ndicinga ukuba abantu abaninzi bacinga ukuba bacinga kwaye, ngeendlela ezininzi, ziphakamileyo kwimimiselo enokuxhaswa ngemilinganiselo engekho, ngokwenene, ingqiqo xa ucinga oko kubenza . Cinga nge-Dow Jones Umyinge weZibonelelo kwi-indalo enye; isalathisi samasheke esitokhwe samasheya angama-30 kweli lizwe elixhomekeke kwiimali zentengiso . Kule meko, ngexesha lezinto ezingenakucatshangelwayo - cinga i- bubble-stock market ye -1990-abatshali-zimali ngabanye bazakwenza ngokufanelekileyo njengabahleli be -Wall Street Journal ngoku kuphela, kunokuba baqikelele, intatheli zeengxelo zemali ezihleli etafileni yenkomfa, ehlangeneyo Iimoya zezilwanyana zeqela liyakutshayela apho iinkampani zange zongezwe okanye zitshitshwe nasiphi na ukuhlaziywa.
Ukugxeka 4: Ngenxa yokuba iqulethe iinkampani ezingama-30 kuphela, i-Dow Jones Industrial Average hayiyohluka njengamanye amanqaku eemarike zentengiso.
Oku kukugxekwa okwenziwe ngokubaluleka kwemathematika kwaye ngokukodwa kungekubi njengoko kuzwakala kunikezwa ukuba ukungafihli phakathi kwe-S & P 500, elithatyathwa yimali-mveliso yemarike, kunye ne-Dow Jones Industrial Average meanings. Ewe, i-S & P 500 ilungelelaniswe ngokubhekiselele kodwa kungabi nakakhulu kangangokuba kubangele ukusebenza komgangatho ophezulu okanye ukunciphisa ingozi kwizizukulwana ezimbalwa ezidlulileyo; enye imfihlakalo yomsebenzi kaDow. Ngaphandle koko, i-Dow Jones Industrial Average does not mean to capture the performance of all stocks, it is intended to be a barometer; uqikelelo olunzima lwento eqhubekayo kwimarike esekelwe kwiinkampani ezihamba phambili ezimela imboni yaseMelika.
Nangona kunjalo, umgaqo wokugxeka kubalulekile. Ubungakanani beminyaka engama-50 yokufumana uphando lwezemfundo lufuna ukufumana inani elifanelekileyo lezakhi kwiipotifoliyo zokulingana ukuze kufinyelele kwindawo apho ulwahlulo oluthe lwaba luncedo olungakumbi.
Ingcaciso emfutshane kukuba kulo lonke lembali, inani lezinto eziphambili kwipotifoliyo kucatshangwa ukuba yindawo ethile phakathi kweesitokisi ezili-10 (bona uVevans noArcher emva kowe-1968) kunye nama-stock (ama-50) (bona iCampbell, i-Lettau, i-Malkiel ne-Xu ngo-2001 ). Ngoku kutshanje ukuba i-stock mores efunekayo iqalile ukubamba (jonga iDomian, iLouton, ne-Racine ngo-2006) kwaye ke, ukuba uyamkela ingcamango yokuba ukwanda kwexesha elincinci lokutshatyalaliswa kwexesha elide kunentsingiselo kwixesha elide abatyali-mali abakhokhe imali ngemali yabo kwaye abanakho isidingo sokuthengisa nganoma nayiphina ixesha.
Ukubonelela ngomzekelo-umzekelo kwisigwebo sokugqibela, umtyalomali-mali-malikazi uCharlie Munger, othanda ukugcina izibambiso ngokuthe ngqo ngaphandle kwetyala kuye kunye nokuhlala kuwo iminyaka engama-25 okanye ngaphezulu, uxela ukuba ukuba umntu onobulumko, owaziwayo okanye oomashishini uyazi oko akwenzayo, kwaye unamava emfuno eziyimfuneko ukuze aqonde kwaye ahlalutye ingozi, uya kulungeleka ukubamba njengemigangatho emithathu nje ukuba ezo zifuyo zisezinkampanini ezingahambelananga kwaye zingabanjwanga kwi-akhawunti echanekileyo. Ngokomzekelo, ngezinye izikhathi iTayer isebenzisa ishishini elinje njengeCoca-Cola Inkampani ukuze ibonise into yakhe. I-Coke inesabelo semarike kangangokuba iyakhawuleza ukuba ivelise imali evela kwindawo ephakamileyo malunga neephesenti ezingama-3.5 zonke iziphuzo ezidalwa ngabantu ezidalwa emhlabeni wonke, kubandakanywa namanzi ompompoza, iqhuba ishishini kwi-180+ zeemali zemisebenzi, inandipha ukubuyisela emanzini kwi-capital, kwaye iyancoma Ukugqithiswa kweminye yemveliso ephezulu kunokuba abantu abaninzi baqonde; umzekelo, i-Coca-Cola ayikho nje inkampani ye-soda, yona inika umthombo omkhulu weeyi kunye nejusi le-orange, kwakunye neendlela ezikhulayo kwezinye iindawo ezifana nekhofi kunye nobisi. U-Munger ugxeka ukuba inkampani efana neCokeke inokuba yinto efanelekileyo ukuba- kwaye oku kukukhulu ukuba-utyalo-mali ocebileyo kunye namava amaninzi kunye nomnatha wobuqu obuninzi ngaphezu kwezinto eziza kuthatha ukuzondla ngokwakhe unokunikela ixesha elifunekayo ukuba uhlale uhilelekile kwaye usebenza ngokufunda ukusebenza kwenkampani ngokukhishwa kwekota nganye, ukuyiphatha, ngandlela-thile, njengokungathi ibhizinisi lentsapho eligcinwe ngasese. Enyanisweni, uye waxhasa le ngxabano ngokubonisa ukuba uninzi - kungekhona konke, kodwa iziseko ezibalulekileyo ezixhaswe ngumnikelo omkhulu wesitokisi somncedi ziyenze kangcono ngexesha lokubambelela kwisibonda sokuqala kunokuba zidibanise ngokusebenzisa ukuthengiswa kweziqinisekiso. I-crux ye-Munger ingxabano iya kwelokuba uyakholelwa ukuba kunokwenzeka ukunciphisa umngcipheko, engacacisekanga njengokuba yintliziyo engathandabuzekiyo, kodwa, kunokuba, unako ukulahleka ngonaphakade kwengxowa-mali, ngokuqonda ingozi yokusebenza yeenkampani ezithatha , ezingenakwenzeka ukuba uzame ukugcina umkhondo wento efana namashishini angama-500 ahlukeneyo.
Ezinye iingcamango zokuvala malunga neDow Jones
Asinayo ingxaki enkulu kumlinganiselo weDow Jones weShishini njengabantu abaninzi kubonakala ngathi siyithatha oko kukuthi-into enokubaluleka, nokuba yimalini, ukuba izinto zihamba njani kwiindawo ezinkulu ze- chip chip iunited States. Nangona i-fraction kuphela yeefayili ezipheleleyo zibophelelwe njengeqhinga lokukhomba, i-S & P 500 ineengxaki zayo.
I-Balance ayinikezeli irhafu, utyalo-mali, iinkonzo zemali kunye neengcebiso. Ulwazi lwenziwa ngaphandle kokuqwalasela iinjongo zotyalo-mali, ukunyamezela, okanye imeko zezimali kwanoma yimuphi umtyalo-mali othile kwaye angenakufaneleka kubo bonke abatyalo-mali. Ukusebenza kwangaphambili akubonakali kweziphumo ezizayo. Utyalo-mali luquka ubungozi kubandakanya ukulahlekelwa kwinqununu.