IiSitorethi eziPhambili zifumaneka kwiZiko leMigangatho

Ugwayi, i-Pharmaceutical, & Consumer Staples Yenze Ubutyebi Ngaphezulu Kwiminyaka Engama-50 edlulileyo

Enye yeenzuzo ezinzulu zokuba ngumtyalo-mali kwikhulu lama-21 uneminyaka engama-emininzi yedatha yemakethe ye-stock market ukuhlola nje kuphela e-United States kodwa kwihlabathi jikelele. Kukhona umsebenzi omangalisayo kumabhankini abucala kunye nokuphuma kwezemfundo ekukhangela oko, ngokukodwa, izitoko ezilungileyo zokuthenga ubunini besikhathi eside.

Kucacile ukuba kule nkalo, iinkampani ezenza "uluhlu oluphezulu" alukho konke okungahleliwe.

Amashishini athile aneenzuzo ezithile zezoqoqosho, ezomthetho kunye neenkcubeko ezenza kube lula ukuba izixhobo ngaphakathi kwazo zihlanganise imali kwizinga eliphezulu ngaphezu komyinge, ukuvelisa ukubuyiswa kwabanikazi abaphezulu bezabelo nangona umlinganiselo wokuqala wexabiso-kuya-umvuzo awulona uphantsi. Oku kuthetha ukuba izitoko zokubuya eziphezulu zihlanganiswe ngeenxa yecandelo elincinci loqoqosho jikelele, ukuvelisa ukusebenza kwangaphandle kwe-1% ukuya ku-5%, okuyiyohlukeneyo yobutyebi phakathi kwexesha eli-10, 25, 50 okanye ngaphezulu.

Kule nqaku, siza kujonga ezinye zezinto ezifunyenwe ngethemba lokuba ukuchonga okokuthengwa kwezinto ezinokuthi zithenge, sinokuqonda kakuhle ukulawulwa kwengozi kunye nokwakhiwa kwesikhothifoliyo kweso -mali-mali .

EUnited States, iindawo ezithengileyo zokuthengwa ziye zahlala zijikeleze ngaphantsi koTuba, iiMveliso zeMveliso, kunye nabaSebenzi bokuThengisa.

Kwincwadi yakhe ethengisa kakhulu ukuba kutheni iifowuni ezithintekayo ongayifumana kwi-portfolio yoogogo nomkhulu zihlala zincinci ngaphezu kwemiba ebushushu bolu suku, uprofesa we-Wharton Business School uDkt Jeremy J.

U-Siegel, endikubhalileyo malunga namaxesha amaninzi kwixesha elidlulileyo, wacwaninga ukuqokelelwa kwe-$ 1,000 eyi-$ 1000 yokuqala, uhlahlo lwabiwo lwabiwo lwabiwo, lubekwa kwiifemu zokuqala eziphakathi kwe-1957, xa i- index isungulwe, kwaye ngo-2003 , xa eqala ukuyila iziphumo zakhe.

(Ngokuqinisekileyo i-Stocks ikhule ngokubaluleka kakhulu ukususela ngelo xesha ke inani liza kuba likhulu namhlanje.Noko kunjalo, kusebalulekile ukujonga iziphumo zakhe.)

Emva koko waphonononga iifemu eziphezulu ezingama-20, ezazithengisa iimpahla ezilungileyo kakhulu zokuthenga - i-4% ephezulu ye-S & P 500 yangaphambili-ukuba ucinga ngokugqithiseleyo ukuzama nokuqonda oko kwabenza bahluke. Unokulindela ngeentlobo ezininzi ezahlukeneyo zeenkampani ezisebenzayo ngelo xesha, ubuya kugqiba kunye namashishini avela kumzila wesitimela ukuya kwiinqwelo zokuqhuba iinqanawa. Akukho nto ingaba yinyani kwi nyaniso. Ukuyibeka kwimimiselo yehlabathi yangempela, phakathi kuka-1957 no-2003, isiqalo sokuqala sama-$ 1,000 ekugqibeleni saba ngu:

  1. UFilipu Morris - Ugwayi - $ 4,626,402 - 19.75% CAGR
  2. Abbott Labs - Amayeza-$ 1,281,335 - 16.51% CAGR
  3. I-Bristol-Myers Squibb - Amayeza-$ 1,209.445 - 16.36% CAGR
  4. I-Tootsie Roll Industries - I-Staples yabathengi - $ 1,090,955 - 16.11% CAGR
  5. I-Pfizer - Amayeza-$ 1,054,823 - 16.03% CAGR
  6. I-Coca-Cola - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 1,051,646 - 16.02% CAGR
  7. Merck - Amayeza-$ 1,003,410 - 15.90% CAGR
  8. I-PepsiCo - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 866,068 - 15.54% CAGR
  9. I-Colgate-Palmolive - Isitampu seThengi - $ 761,163 - 15.22% CAGR
  10. I-Crane - I-Industrial-$ 736,796 - 15.14%
  1. UHJ Heinz - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 635,988 - 14.78% CAGR
  2. IWrigley - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 603,877 - 14.65% CAGR
  3. I-Fortune Brands - UTuba noThengi lweziThengi - $ 580,025 - 14.55% CAGR
  4. I-Kroger - I-Retail-$ 546,793 - 14.41% CAGR
  5. I-Schering-Plow - Amayeza-$ 537,050 - 14.36% CAGR
  6. I-Procter & Gamble - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 513,752 - 14.26% CAGR
  7. I-Hershey - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 507,001 - 14.22% CAGR
  8. Wyeth - Pharmaceuticals - $ 461,186 - 13.99%
  9. Royal Dutch Petroleum - I-oyile - i-$ 398,837 - 13.64%
  10. IiMidiya eziManyeneyo - IziThengi zabaThengi - $ 388.425 - 13.58% CAGR

Oku kuthetha ukuba i-18 yezona ziphezulu ezingama-20 ze-S & P 500, okanye i-90%, zivela kwiindawo ezintathu ezincitshisiweyo zoqoqosho jikelele: Ugwayi, ii-Consumer Staples, kunye namayeza. Oku kubaluleka.

Kutheni le miCimbi iphumelele?

Yintoni eyenza oku kwenzeke?

Ugwayi wawuyimeko enomdla wokudibanisa amandla amakhulu, ukubuyisela okukhulu kwixabiso eliyinkunzi, umkhiqizo onomlutha, kunye nemali yabelana ngokuxhatshazwa yimfazwe oorhulumente baseburhulumenteni kunye noorhulumente abasebenza kwiifemu, kunye nokungahambi kakuhle kwamashishini (kum kwintsapho, kungakhathaliseki ukuba iifaki ezingabonakaliyo zetekisi zifumana njani ngezikhathi ezithile, amalungu athile akayi kuvumela ukuba ndifake naliphi na kwiipotifoliyo zazo). Ukuhlaziywa ngokungapheliyo, abanikazi abalima ama-dividends abo kwii-stock ezingaphezulu ezongezelelweyo zamasango emva kweeminyaka elishumi, eziphuculwa yinyaniso ukuba amafemu anenzuzo kakhulu ayengavunyelwa ngenxa yezizathu zentlalo. (EUnited Kingdom, utywala bekulinganayo, ukutyumza yonke into.) Kungenzeka ukuba kwakuse-United States kodwa asisoze sazi ngenxa yokuthintela ukutshintshela umhlaba.)

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, izithambiso zabaxhasi kunye neemveliso zonyango, zazixhamla ezintle iingenelo ezinxulumene nemodeli yezobenzi ezenza ukuba kubekho oomatshini obuqulunqayo:

Ngokuthakazelisayo, eziliqela eziphezulu ezi-20 ezikhoyo kwiloluhlu ziye zahlanganiswa kwiinkampani ezinamandla kunene, ezinenzuzo kakhulu. Oku kufuneka kuqiniseke ukuba iindleko zabo ziya phambili:

Njengoko kunomdla, amaninzi kula ma shishini ayesele ayingqinela, amagama asekhaya emva kwawo-1950. Coke kunye nePepsi phakathi kwabo babenombutho ophezulu kwi-all share share in the carbonated drink category. I-Procter neGamble kunye neColgate-Palmolive ilawula iisisithi zezitolo zokutya, izitolo eziqhelekileyo kunye nezinye izitolo zokuthengisa. Hershey, Tootsie Roll, kunye noWrigley, kunye ne-private Candored Mars Candy, bebanjwe ngamatriki kwintsimi yabo, ixesha elide liye labeka ukubaluleka kwikhonkco zabo, i-chocolate, i-candy kunye ne-gum industries. I-Royal Dutch yenye yeenkampani ezinkulu zeoli kwilizwe. (Inqaku eliphambili: Ezinye iigorha zeoli ziyenzile kakhulu, kodwa ziwa phantsi nje kwezona zinto zingaphezulu kwe-20. Ulungele ukuthetha, usenokwakha ubutyebi obuninzi obunabo.) UHJ Heinz wayeyi-ketchup ukumkani ukususela kuma-1800 kungekho nomncintiswano onzima. UFilip Morris, kunye noogwayi wakhe waseMarlboro, kunye ne-Fortune Brands (ngoku kwaziwa ngokuba yi-American Tobacco), kunye ne-Lucky Strike cigarettes, yayininzi kakhulu. Wonke umntu kweli lizwe owamkela ingqalelo wayesazi ukuba bashicilele imali.

Oku kwakungekho mngcipheko-konke-ukuqala-shishini kwamashishini. Oku kwakungekho mnikelo wokuqala woluntu owawubhalwa ngabaxeli abagqithisileyo. Ezi ziinkampani zangempela, zenza imali yangempela, ngokuqhelekileyo zinezoshishino malunga noko kwakuphakathi kweminyaka engama-75 ukuya kwe-150. I-Pfizer yasungulwa ngo-1849. I-Merck yasungulwa ngo-1891 njengenkxaso yenkampani yaseJalimane iMerck, eyasungulwa ngo-1668. UHeinz wayesebenze ishishini ukususela ngowe-1869, ethengisa iimbotyi eziphekiweyo, ama-pickle amnandi kunye ne-ketchup kubantu. U-Hershey waqalisa ubomi bakhe obunobunye ngo-1894; PepsiCo ngowe-1893; I-Coca-Cola ngo-1886; I-Colgate-Palmolive ngo-1806. Awuzange ufune ukumba ubunzulu kwi-list-counter-listings ukuze uyifumane, ezi ziinkampani eziqhelekileyo ukuba wonke umntu ophila eUnited States wayazi kwaye uyaphatha ngokuthe ngqo okanye ngokungathanga ngqo. Babhalwa malunga neNew York Times . Baleka umabonwakude, i-redio kunye neemagazini zeevenkile.

Ezinye zeeSitokisi eziPhambili zokuThengisa azizange zifakwe kwiLuhlu ngenxa yokuthengwa kunye nokuhluka kwexesha

Qaphela ukuba olu luhlu lubekelwe kuphela kumalungu angaphambili aseS & P 500 asaphila njengamashishini karhulumente xa uSiegel ebhala uphando lwakhe. Xa ukhangela ezinye iinkampani eziphezulu ezisezideni ezimbalwa ezedlulileyo ezingekho kwilolu hlobo, ezinye zazo zazincitshiswa kakhulu kwaye zazingabandakanywa ukuba le ndlela iguquliwe. Ingxenye yesizathu sokuba abazange bahambisane nemithetho eqingqiweyo i-S & P eqeshwe ngexesha lokusekwa. Ekuqaleni, iyakwazi ukubamba iindwendwe ezingama-425, iinkonzo ezingama-60, kunye ne-15. Imimandla yonke yoqoqosho ivalwe, kubandakanya iimali zeebhanki kunye neebhanki , ezingenakufakwa kwisihlomelo samasheke esitokisi esinye sesibini seminyaka! Oko kuthetha ukuba, ngamanye amaxesha, ibhizinisi elikhulu elowo wonke umntu wayazi kwaye loo nto yenze imali eninzi yashiywa kuluhlu ukuzalisa isabelo kwenye indawo. Amashishini amaninzi azinenzuzo abuye athathwe ngasese ngaphambi komhla wokugqibela ka-2003 kuPhando lukaSiegel, ngenxa yoko ukukhishwa kwento yokukhangela.

Masisebenzise iClorox njengomzekeliso. I-bleach giant ifana nezoqoqosho ngokufanayo nakwezinye iifemu ezixhamla phezulu - kwakungekho ezininzi zamashishini amakhulu asetyenziswayo ngelo xesha kwaye phantse yonke intsapho e-United States yazi, okanye yayisetyenziswa, iikhiqizo zeClorox - kodwa Yathengwa ngu-Procter neGamble ngo-1957. Emva kwemfazwe yokulwa ne-anti-trust ye-10, iNkundla Ephakamileyo yalela ukuba iqhutywe njengebhizinisi elizimeleyo ngo-1967. NgoJanuwari 1, 1969, yaba yimiba yedwa, kuthengiswa esidlangalaleni shishini, kwakhona. Omnye owathengayo izabelo zomenzi we-bleach wayenokukrazula epakini, ekubhubhiseni yonke imarike emasheya kunye nabathengi bezentengiselwano kunye nabangena kuloluhlu kwakungenakufikelela kwiminyaka eyi-12 yokuqala. I-Clorox yinto enhle kakhulu kangangokuba malunga nexesha ndizalelwe ekuqaleni kwawo-1980 isitokisi sasijikeleze i-$ 1 ngesabelo ngasinye kwimigqaliselo ehlengahlengisiweyo. Namhlanje, ku-$ 110 + isabelo ngasinye kwaye uqokelele esinye isabelo se-31 + ngasinye ngesabelo semali esendleleni eya kwi-141 + eyi-$. Ukuphindaphinda umvakalelo endibelana ngawo rhoqo, awuyi kuphinda ulive malunga nawo kwi-cocktail party. Ngaphandle kwee-141-to-1 zibonelelo, abantu abakhathaleli kuba kuthathe iminyaka engama-35 ukufezekisa. Bafuna imikhosi yamahashe kunye nobutyebi bexeshana. Ukutyala okulinganayo kwemali yemithi ye-oki kungeyona indlela yabo.

Ngokufanayo, uMcCormick, owaye waqala ukususela ngo-1889 kwaye wayeyikosi engekho emthethweni yemakethi ye-spice yaseMerika, ayizange yongezwe kwi-S & P 500 de kube yinto - zibophe ngokwakho - kunyaka ka-2010. iimpawu ezibonakala zifana nezomnotho njengamanye amashishini atshabayo-ukubuyiswa okukhulu kweendleko ezinkulu, ukuqashelwa kwegama lomkhaya, isabelo semarike kakhulu, ungenza i-double-take-sheet, ishidi eliqinileyo, iimpawu zokuthengisa, amalungelo olungelo lobunikazi kunye nokushicilelwa kwehlabathi. inzuzo enkulu enkulu-ayifanelekanga ukufakwa. Isiphumo esibuhlungu salo kukuba ukuhlanganiswa kwayo okungaphezulu kungabonakali phakathi kweli datha yedatha.

Ingxaki yokuTyala imali kwiTeknoloji

Okwangoku ngoku, unokuzibuza ukuba kutheni i-teknoloji iifowuni ayilenzanga uluhlu. Ngokungafani namashishini afana nezixhobo zabathengi, apho inkoliso yeenkampani ezikhokelayo zihlanganiswe ngokufanelekileyo okanye eziphakamileyo kakhulu, amazinga, iteknoloji yindawo ephosakeleyo. Ibhizinisi elincomekayo elinenzuzo, njenge-MySpace, lingawela phantsi ubusuku nje njengoko lilahlekelwa yintsana entsha kwi-block, Facebook. Ngaphezulu kwesi sikho, kukho indlela ecacileyo yokufunda abatshali-mali abahlawula kakhulu imali yabo yezinto zobuchwepheshe, oku kubangelwa ukubuyisela iifom ezithile kwixesha elithile.

INgqina likaBaudaq lihamba ukusuka kwinqanaba layo elingu-5,046.85 (lifikelele kwi-5,132.52 ngemini ngo-Matshi 10, 2000) kwisigqibo esingenakucinga ukuba sibe ngu-1,114.11 ngo-Oktobha 9, 2002. Kuthatha iminyaka eyi-15, kude kube ngoMashi ka-2015. , ukuba amanqaku ama-5 000 afumaneke, kwakhona. Okubi nakakhulu, i- NASDAQ , ngokungafani nezinye iindleko zeemakethe zentengiso, inokuveliswa kwemali engaphantsi kwe-average-dividend, oku kuthetha ukuba ukubuyela okupheleleyo kunzima.

Ukutshala imali kwi-teknoloji kudinga ukuba ihlakaniphile kwaye inentloni. Njengeqela, ithuba lokuba nayiphi na iqumrhu elenza kakuhle liphantsi kakhulu kunokuba i-soda, ibha ye-candy, i-bleach, kunye neenkampani zeseva zesitya eziye zeshishini zihamba ngeeminyaka ezintathu ezahlukileyo kwaye azizange zitshintshe. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba ufumana ithuba elimangalisayo eliya ngqo, njengeMicrosoft, nokuba nesithuba esincinci singatshintsha ubomi bakho ngonaphakade. Khawucinge ukuba awunelungelo lokufumana izandla zakho kwizabelo ze-IPO kodwa ngaphambi kokuvalwa kweemarike ngo-Matshi 13, 1986, uthenge i-stock $ 1,000. Ubungakanani na namhlanje? Ukucinga ukuba akukho sabelo sokubuyiswa kwemali , iminyaka engama-29 kamva ngo-2015, uya kuba ne-$ 421,582 yesitokethi esaneleyo kunye ne-102,572 zamaxabiso ezikhethiweyo ezikhethiweyo ze-$ 524,154. Kwathatha iminyaka engaphantsi kwe-30 ukubetha ezinye zeempahla eziphambili ze-S & P yangaphambili, ubuninzi bexesha elide. Esi sisithembiso esenza abantu baxhamle kwii- teknoloji .

Uninzi lweeSitokisi ezibi kakhulu zokuthenga zinezinto ezifanayo

Ngoku ngoku siye sathetha malunga nezitoko ezilungileyo zokuthenga, ngokusesikweni, kuthekani malunga nomphetho ochaseneyo webala? Xa uhlola i-wreckage yeenkampani ezithuthumayo okanye ezibuyiselwe kakhulu kwi- inflation kunye neerhafu, iipatheni ziyavela kwakhona. Nangona kukho iimeko ezinobungozi obuqinileyo apho iinkampani ezintle zithatyathwa ngokuphathwa kakubi (umzekelo, i-AIG, Lehman Brothers), awukwazi ukuqikelela ukuba uhlobo lento. Apha, sithetha ngezinto ezinxulumene nezakhiwo kumashishini athile enza ukuba ezo shishini zibe nzima, zingathandeki kakhulu kwixesha elide. Hhayi zonke iintlobo zezoshishino zingaba ngutyalo-mali-butyebi kodwa ezo shishini zimbi zingenza amashishini amashishini athile. Ezi nkampani ziphantsi rhoqo:

Nangona izitoko ezilungileyo zokuthenga zenziwe ngokungafaniyo kwezibhengezo zentengo, abaxube imithi kunye neefayibhi zecuba, izinto ezigqithiseleyo zokuthenga zithelekiswa ngaphezu kweendyefa zetsimbi, i-aluminium, iinqwelo-moya kunye nabakhi beevenkile.

Ukuzama ukuchonga iiStore eziMnandi ukuthenga kwii-50 ezilandelayo

Iimpawu ezintle ukuba, njengabantu abaninzi, awukwazi ukufumana iMicrosoft okanye i-Apple elandelayo. Ngaloo nto, i-predictor of the best is past. Impembelelo efanayo yezoqoqosho eyenza ezinye iinkampani zizuze kwaye zenze abanye bazivelele bahlala becala ngokufana noko babeneminyaka ngo-1957 xa i-S & P 500 yokuqala yapapashwa. Amashishini aphezulu kakhulu, amaqumrhu asemakhaya alawula isabelo sawo semakethi kwaye ayengathobeli ukufuduka kwezobuchwepheshe kwinqanaba elinye iifemu zisabonakala liyingcipheko yokufumana umvuzo.

Kungathatha ixesha elide ukuba ube nobutyebi, kodwa ngokunyamekela idola libiza imali ephezulu kule festile ephezulu ngaphezulu, unokuthi ube ngumnye walabo baxhamli beemfihlo abaye bashiya i-fortune, njengoRonald Read, umlondolozi oswelekileyo kunyaka ophelile. Iindlalifa zakhe zafumanisa imitha e-inch-thick thick of certificates stock in a blank bank. Lezo kunye nezinye izicwangciso zokuthengwa kwesitotho esithe ngqo zigqityiwe ngaphezu kwama-8,000,000.