Indlela uWarren Buffett enquma ngayo ukuba iMarike iNgaphezulu

Ukusebenzisa i-Cap Cap Market ukuya kwi-National Product Ratio

UWarren Buffett - okanye i-Oracle ye-Omaha-ixutyushwa ngokubanzi njengomnye wabatyalomali abakhulu bexesha lonke banikezela ukuba angakwazi ukukhetha amasheya. Ngoxa uBuffett wenza inzuzo yakhe yokutshala imali kwiimpawu ze-icon ze-US ezinjengeCoca-Cola noGillette, iinqununu ezisebenzisayo zingasetyenziswa nakweyiphi na imarike ehlabathini lonke ukukunceda ukufumanisa amathuba angcono kwixesha elide. Uninzi lwale migaqo luye lwavavanywa ngamaxesha nezinye iingcali ezifana nomcebisi wakhe uBenjamin Graham.

Xa kuziwa ekuxabiseni yonke imarike yesitokisi, i-Buffet ikhetha ukuthelekisa ixabiso lemarike ye-stock market kunye nomkhiqizo wesizwe ogqithiseleyo ukucacisa ukuba ingaba yinto engabonakaliyo okanye ingaphezulu. UBuffett ukholelwa ukuba umlinganiselo we-70% ukuya ku-80% uvelisa ithuba lokuthenga kwi-stocks, ngelixa u-200% ubonisa ukulungiswa kwangaphambili kwiindawo zokuza, njengoko i-marhwebo isenokungaphezu kwexabiso.

Kule nqaku, siza kujonga indlela yokufumana le datha nokuhlalutya imakethi ye-stock yelizwe usebenzisa ubuchule obukhethiweyo bukaWarren Buffett.

Ukufumana iDatha

I-Bhanki yehlabathi inikezela ubutyebi beenkcukacha kuzo zonke ihlabathi emhlabeni jikelele, kubandakanywa umkhiqizo wesizwe ophezulu kunye neengqinisiso zemali zorhwebo zemali ezingasetyenziselwa ukwenza i- cap market kwi-GNP. Enyanisweni, umbutho uphinde unikezele ubungakanani ngokwayo njengesicatshulwa esahlukileyo kumazwe amaninzi ahlukeneyo emhlabeni wonke, okwenza abatyale-mali belizwe lonke bafumane ngokukhawuleza ulwazi olufunekayo ukuthelekisa.

Isalathisi sinokufumaneka apha:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/CM.MKT.LCAP.GD.ZS

Xa uchitha idatha, abatyala-mali behlabathi kufuneka baqiniseke ukuba bacebise amaphupha eenkcukacha okanye bajonga iitshathi ukubonisa ukuhamba ngokuhamba kwexesha. Isizathu esilula kukuba akukho mazwe afanayo kwaye abatyali-zimali badinga umxholo ukucacisa intsingiselo yale ntshukumo.

Ngokomzekelo, i-US isoloko ine-ratio ephakamileyo ifikelela kwi-100%, kodwa abatyali-mali babengeke bengabulumko ukuphepha amanani ase-US ngokubanzi kwiminyaka emininzi edlulileyo, nangona ezi zimeko zibonakala zi-bhanya.

Isicwangciso soTyalo-mali

Kukho amacebo amaninzi ahlukeneyo abafakeli-mali bamazwe ngamazwe abangayisebenzisa kunye neefowuni zeemarike ukuba zibe nedatha yemveliso yelizwe jikelele. Kwiphepha elixhasayo, abatyali-mali abaninzi banokufuna ukusebenzisa isalathisi ukuchonga amaphuzu okuqala ophando olulinganisiweyo lwezoqoqosho. Kwinqanaba le-riskier, abanye abatyalo-mali bangenomdla ekuphandeleni izicwangciso ezifutshane ezifutshane apho bathengisa khona iimarike ezithengiweyo kunye nokuthengwa kweemarike ezingekho phantsi kweemfuno zokulungiswa, eyaziwa njengeqhinga lokubambisana.

Xa usebenzisa umlinganiselo, abatyali-mali kufuneka bagcine izinto ezimbalwa engqondweni:

• Izinto ezixhasayo - Zininzi izinto ezinokuthi zenze umsebenzi onokubangela ukuba kuthengiswe okanye kuthengiswe. Ngokomzekelo, i- Australia ye- securities iye yabiza kakhulu ngo-2013-2015, kodwa imbangela ukungabikho kwemfuneko yemithombo yendalo evela eChina, eye yabangela ukukhula okucothayo kunye nokulinganiswa okuphantsi.
• Iimpawu ezingalinganiyo - Iimarike zingathathwa njengezingabalulekiyo ngokubanzi, kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo kunokwenzeka ukuba icandelo elithile libe likhulu. Umngcipheko usenokuba yinyaniso, apho i-market evelele kakhulu ingenza izindlu ezingabalulekanga. Abatyalomali kufuneka baqaphele ezi zintlukwano xa betyala imali kumacandelo athile.

• Iingqinisiso ezingapheliyo -Iimarike zingenakulinganiswa ngokungapheliyo nakwezinye iimarike ezijikelezayo kwihlabathi malunga naziphi na izizathu. Ngokomzekelo, iimarike ezithile ezikhulayo kunye nemingcipheko ephakamileyo yezopolitiko zingabonakali kakhulu kwixesha elide, oko akuthethi ukuba baya kufikelela kwixabiso elifanelekileyo.

Into ebaluleke kakhulu ukuyikhumbula ukuba abatyala-mali belizwe lonke bawusebenzise umlinganiselo njengendawo yokuqala yophando olongezelelweyo kunokuphela kokuphela kwayo yonke into. Kukho izinto ezininzi ezahlukileyo eziya kubonisa ithuba lotyalo-mali kunye nelizwe elivela kuyo liphela kuphela. Abatyalomali kufuneka baqwalasele iimfanelo zokutyalomali zezoqoqosho ngaphakathi kwelizwe - ngokwemilinganiselo yokulinganisela kunye nokukhula kwazo - kunye nezinto ezinokungabikho kwelizwe, njengexabiso lempahla.

Amaphuzu athathweyo

• UWarren Buffett uyaziwa ngokusebenzisa i-cap kwikhredithi kwisiqingatha somkhiqizo wesizwe xa kuqikelelwe ukuba ngaba amaxabiso angaphezu kwexabiso okanye angabalulekanga ngokubanzi.
• Abatyalomali bamazwe ngamazwe bafumana idatha efanayo kubo bonke amazwe basebenzisa izixhobo ezibonelelwa yiBhanki yehlabathi kunye neminye imibutho yamazwe ngamazwe.
• Xa usebenzisa umlinganiselo, abatyali-mali kufuneka baqiniseke ukuba basebenzise kuphela njengendawo yokuqala yokuphunyezwa kwezicwangciso ezahlukeneyo, kubandakanywa nezicwangciso ezifutshane.