Ubani na Owunayo kunye noLowo oLawulayo
Ubungakanani obufudumele? Ukususela kuma-1880, ukufudumala kweqondo lomhlaba kuye kwaphakama 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit. Ziyi-1.2 degrees Celsius. KwiSivumelwano seParis ka-2016, iintlanga zivumelene namaqondo okushisa akufanele adlule kwi-2.0 degrees Celsius.
Ixesha lokugqibela le planethi yayifudumele iminyaka eyi-11 000 edlulileyo. Ukufudumala kubangelwa yimitshini ekujikelezeni komhlaba. Ngokukhawuleza kukhokelela kwi-Little Age Age. Eli xesha, ukushisa kubangelwa yimpembelelo yokushisa. Iqondo lokubanda liza kufudumala.
Ngomnyaka we-1975, uNjingalwazi uWilliam Nordhaus waqale waxwayisa malunga nefuthe loqoqosho lokufudumala kwehlabathi. Waxela ukuba ukuphindwa kabini kwekhabhoni dioxide kwandisa amaqondo okushisa ama-2 degrees Celsius. Amaqondo okushisa angaphezulu kwelo nqanaba lomngcipheko oshaya ingqinamba. Inxalenye enkulu ye-polar ice caps iya kunyibilika, kwaye yandise amanqanaba olwandle. Oku kuya kudala i-loop ye-feedback engabangela ukushisa kwama-5 degrees Celsius kwixesha elide.
Ngo-2014, iBhanki yehlabathi iqikelele ukuba amaqondo okushisa aya kukwandisa ama-degrees Celsius amane ukuba akukho nto eyenziwe. Kulo bushushu, amaqabunga e-Greenland nase-West Antarctica atyibilika. Idibeneyo, iphakamisa izinga elwandle elingu-33. Xa amazinga olwandle sele ephakama nje ngeenyawo ezili-10, abantu abayizigidi ezili-12.3 abahlala kunye nemimandla yaseNxweme yase-US baya kukhukhula.
Esikhundleni sokuthobela isilumkiso sikaSolomon Norhaus, umntu uye wavumela ukushisa kwanda ukukhawuleza. Kule minyaka engama-45 edlulileyo, ukushisa kwezinga lomhlaba kwenyuka ngama-0.17 degrees Celsius, okanye malunga ne-0.3 degrees Fahrenheit, kwiminyaka elishumi. Oku kuphindwe kabini umyinge we-0.07 degrees Celsius kwindleko yeshumi eyenzeka ngexesha lonke ixesha lokubhaliweyo (1880-2015).
Ukushisa kwimihlaba ekhulayo kuphakama ngokukhawuleza. Kwiminyaka engama-60 edluleyo, i-Alaska ifudumeze ifike ngo-1.7 ° C. Kuphindwe kabini ngokukhawuleza njengoko bonke abaseUnited States. Ngo-2016, inani leqhwa elwandle ebusika lafikelela kwingxelo ephantsi. NgoFebruwari 2017, amaqondo okushisa eMntla wePole aphakama amazinga angama-45 ngaphezu kwesiqhelo. I-Bering Strait yayingekho iqhwa. Ukungabi khona kweqhwa elwandle kunceda ekufudumeni ukufudumala njengoko amanzi amnyama athatha ukukhanya kwelanga.
Abaqholi be-Antarctica balahlekelwa bunzima babo kwizinga "ngokukhawuleza ngokukhawuleza". Ngokomzekelo, imifanekiso yesatellite eyenziwe phakathi kuka-1992 no-1996 yabonisa ukuba iPine Island Glacier yalahlekelwa ubunzima kwizinga leemitha eziyi-1.6 ngonyaka. Lezi zihlandlo ezingama-42 zikhawuleza kunama-3,8 centimeters ukulahlekelwa yonyaka kunyaka wokugqibela wama-4 700.
Ukufudumala kwehlabathi ukuhlawula uorhulumente wase-US ngaphezu kweebhiliyoni ezingama-350 eziphakathi kwe-2007 no-2017. Kuya kubiza i-$ 112 yezigidigidi ngonyaka , ngokutsho kwe-Government Government Accountability Office.
Ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuya kuthintela ummandla ngamnye ngokuhlukileyo, ukudala abaphumeleleyo kunye nabalahlekileyo. Oku kuthatha ukuba ukushisa akugqithisi i-2 degree degree Celsius.
Abaphumeleleyo
Iindawo eziqinileyo zebhanti zaseFransi ziya kufumana ixesha elide lokukhula. I-Alaska ingavulela ukuphuhliso olutsha.
Kuyafana namazwe eScandinavia. Sekudlulileyo, ixesha elikhulayo eGreenland liveki ezimbini kunexesha lama-1970. IWashington, DC inexesha lokuvakasha kwangaphambili, njengoko imithi yelisikidi iqalile ukuvelisa ngeveki ngaphaya kweminyaka engama-20 edlulileyo.
IRashiya kunye neCanada banokuba ngabaxhamli bezona zikhulu kunabo bonke ngenxa yokuba banomhlaba omkhulu. Oku kungashintsha ngokubanzi ukulinganisela kwamandla.
Abathengisi kwi-Northwest Passage baya kuxhamla kwi-cap ice ice. Iziteshi ezintsha ziza kwenza iindleko zokuthumela ezithengayo.
La hlekelwa
Iifutshane ezinde ziye zandisa ixesha lokungabikho komzimba. Kwezinye iinqununu zelizwe, ixesha le-pollen landa ngeentsuku ezingama-25 phakathi ko-1995 no-2015. Ngenxa yoko, i-asthma yezigidi ezingama-50 kunye nabagulayo abanokugula baya kuhlawula iindleko zonyango lwezempilo . Amanqanaba aphezulu asegesi ezitshatyalaliswayo akhuthaza izityalo ukuvelisa impepho eninzi.
Yenza "i-pollen ephezulu" enkulu kwaye ngoko ke i-allergenic. Iingcali zenzululwazi zixela ukuba i-pollen counts iya kuphinda iphindwe kabini ngo-2040. Iprofesa yeYunivesithi yaseStanford uMark Jacobson inqikelele ukuba abantu abayi-1 baya kufa ngenxa yokungcola komoya kuwo wonke amazinga ama-1.
Ukushona okufutshane kuthetha ukuba izilwanyana eziphethe izifo zinezinga eliphantsi lokufa. Ngenxa yoko, iindawo ezazingenayo igciwane lesifo seNayile eNtshonalanga, i-malaria, kunye nesifo se-bubonic sibona ukuphuka.
Ixesha elide lokukhula alisoloko lilungele izityalo. Imithombo yamandulo ihlala ihamba neqabunga lonyaka. Ibulala amaqabunga kwaye ichithe umveliso wezityalo ngexesha lexesha. Nangona amaqondo okushisa afudumele ixesha elide, amazinga okukhanya kwelanga ayitshintshi. Ezi nqanaba zibaluleke ngakumbi kwizityalo ezikhulayo kunelo bushushu. Izityalo ezininzi zifuna ixesha elide lasebusika ukuphumla nokubuyisela ubungqina babo. Bayafuna ukupholisa ukushisa ukushisa ukubonisa ukuba bangene kwi-dormancy. Ngaphandle koko, bavezwa ngamaqondo abandayo xa befika.
Ezinye iintlekele zemvelo eziqinileyo kunye ezinamandla zidala izifo ezithathelwanayo. I-World Health Organization ibonise amazinga aphezulu e-hepatitis C, i-SARS kunye ne-hantavirus. Ababandezeleka badibanana namanzi angcolileyo kwiinkqubo zokukhukula kwamanzi amaninzi ngexesha lokukhukula.
Amahlathi kulo lonke elaseUnited States baye babandezeleka iminyaka. Ubusika obumfutshane kuthetha ukuba iintlobo ezininzi ezinambuzane, ezifana ne-pine bark bark beetle, azifeki ebusika. Ngenxa yoko, babulala izigidi zemithi. Inkonzo yehlathi yase-US iqikelela ukuba imithi eyi-100,000 ye-beetle ehlaselwe yi-beetle iwela imihla ngemihla. Eli nqanaba lomonakalo alizange libonwe e-US ibhalile imbali.
Ukufudumala okufudumala kukhokelela ekunyuseni kwimihlaba yasendle. Imithi efile ikhulise ubunzima balo mlilo. Itshabalalisa imithi kwaye iyingozi kubantu, kwipropati nakwimimandla yasendle.
Ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuye kwandisa ummandla owomileyo weNxweme kummandla weekhilomitha ezili-140 ukuya empuma. "I-100th meridian" ihambela enyakatho ukuya ngasezantsi ngeTexas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, kunye neDadotas. Ukwahlula uMmandla oMlambo ukusuka kwiWest West. Kuye ngoku kwi-98 meridian. Ngenxa yoko, abalimi abasebenzisa ukukhula ingqolowa baya kufuneka batshintshe kwi-ngqolowa enzima.
Ukomisa eMiddle West kubulawe izityalo zengqolowa, ukuphakamisa intengo yenkomo. Ukomelela kweCalifornia kwandisa i-wildfires kwaye kwandisa iindleko zeziqhamo neziqhamo.
Ukufudumala kwamaqondo okufudumalayo kususa i-Arctic permafrost. Iqukethe i-mercury enobuthi ephindwe kabini njengoko yonke indawo yonke inhlabathi, umoya kunye nolwandle ludibene. Njengoko i-permafrost ihlutha, iphinda ikhuphe iiklasi ezili-gesi zomoya ezikhuniweyo. Ingabangela ukutshatyalaliswa kwamakhanksi okufudumala nokufudumala okungeke kwenzeke.
I-Arctic efudumeleyo ikwandisa ukuvama kwama-blizzards kumntla-ntshona-ntshona eMelika naseYurophu. Xa iArctic ngokukhawuleza ibuhlungu, iyahlula i-polar vortex. Lo ngummandla womoya obandayo ojikeleza iArctic kwiindawo eziphakamileyo. Xa ikwahlukana, umoya ogqabileyo we-Arctic uhla eNew England naseYurophu. Ukufudumala kwamaqondo okushisa kolwandle, kubangelwa ukufudumala kwehlabathi, kwandisa umswakama. Isiphumo siqhubi sebhobho esilahla ixabiso leqhwa.
Njengokuba ulwandle lufudumele, banalo umoya ophantsi. Iintlanzi ziphepha ezinye iindawo zolwandle ngenxa yokuba zihlutha. Ezi "zindawo ezifileyo" zandile ngeekhilomitha ezili-4.5 zeekhilomitha ukusuka kwii-1950. Ngenxa yoko, iintlobo ezininzi ezidumile zeentlanzi zihlala kufuphi ne-oxygen-rich riches.
Ukufudumala kunye nokunyuka kolwandle kungashenxisa i-North Atlantic ngokusuka eYurophu. Ininzi yeYurophu isenyakatho ye-Maine. Ngaphandle kwamanzi afudumele okwangoku, iYurophu iya kubanda njengeNewfoundland.
Nantsi Yenzeke Ixesha Lokugqibela Umhlaba Wavutha Ngokukhawuleza
Ukufudumala kwehlabathi kusenzeka ngezinga elikhawulezayo kunanoma nayiphi na ixesha kwiimbali zomhlaba. Ukuthelekiswa okukufutshane yiPaleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum. Kwakuyixesha phakathi kokuphela kwama-dinosaurs kunye nokunyuka kwezilwanyana ezincelisayo. Ngaphezulu kweminyaka engama-5,000, phakathi kweetriliyoni ezi-4 ukuya kwi-7 trillion iitoni zekhabhoni yakhululwa. Abantu bakhulula amanqanaba afanayo nekhabhoni ngaphezu kwamakhulu, kungekhona amawaka, eminyaka.
Njengoko iplanethi yafudumala, yabangela ukutshatyalaliswa kwamaketanga. Yakhupha iinqanawa zeemethane eziqingqiweyo ezidityanisiweyo zelwandle. I-Wildfires ikhuphe i-carbon dioxide. Yandisa ukushisa kwamaqondo ngamazwe ngamaqondo angama-41 degrees Fahrenheit. Izilwanyana ezinkulu zaphela, kwaye zincinci zinyuka. Ihashe yavela kwinguqu encinci yodwa. Ihamba ukusuka kubukhulu benja enkulu kwikati encinane yendlu. Kuthathe iminyaka engaphezu kwe-150,000 ukuba iqondo lekhabhoni dioxide liyeke ukufikelela kumazinga aqhelekileyo.
Iindleko zeeNdleko zeeNdleko zeeNkqantosi
Abangaphezu kwesiqingatha seMerika bakholelwa ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kukhulisa ubungakanani kunye neenyawo zeziphepho kunye nezinye iziganeko zemozulu ezibi kakhulu. Oku kungaphezulu kwama-39 ekhulwini athethe kangangokuba iminyaka eyi-10 edlulileyo.
Nantsi ingxelo yomonakalo wesikhukhula kwizoqoqosho . Ngo-2005, iSiphepho uKatrina sabumba i-$ 108 billion ukuya kwii-250 ezigidigidi zeebhiliyoni. Yenza ukuba i- GDP iyancipha ukusuka kuma-3.8 ekhulwini kwi-Q3 ukuya kuma-1.3 ekhulwini kwi-Q4 2005. Ngo-2008, iMpulaza i-Gustav neyeNkanyamba i-Ike yahlasela iUnited States. Nangona abazange babangele umonakalo omkhulu, bancedisa indlela yokuqhuma kweemvula ezininzi ezibangelwa ukufudumala kwehlabathi.
Ngo-2012, isiqhwithi iSandy sakhukula isixeko saseNew York kwisikhumbuzo sayo seminyaka engama-500. Ixabise imali engama-70 billion yezigidigidi. Oko kuthetha ukuba i-inshurensi yamanzi ikhuphuka ngama-2,000 ngonyaka ngamnye ngomntu.
Iingcali zenzululwazi zixela ukuba iindwangu ezinjengeSandy ziya kwenzeka yonke iminyaka engama-25. Ngo-2030, baya kutsho eNew York yonke iminyaka emihlanu. Kungenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle kwenza izikhukhula eziphosakeleyo zibi kakhulu. Ngenxa yoko, inkqubo yokuhamba ngeendlela eziseNew York yayiza kuba nezikhukula rhoqo.
Ngo-2017, iHuvane iHarvey yawela imvula engama-51 e-Texas kwiintsuku ezine. Kwagxotha abantu abangama-30,000 emakhaya abo eHouston. Iingcali ziqikelele ukuba umonakalo uya kuba ngu-$ 150 billion. Emva koko iHurman Irma yonakalisa iFlorida, idala i-$ 100 billion.
Iingqapheli zomoya zivuma ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kwenza iziphepho ezinjengeHarvey zibi. Okokuqala, iphakamisa amaqondo okushisa. Umoya ofudumele unamanzi amaninzi, ngoko imvula encinci iwa ngexesha leemvula. Esikhundleni salokho, ilahle iibhakethi ngexesha leemvula ezinamandla. Kwiminyaka engama-50 edlulileyo, isixa semvula esa kwipesenti enye esona siphezulu seqhwithi sande eMelika. Kweminye imimandla yabona ukwanda kwamaphesenti angama-71 kwindlapho evela kwiintsholongwane zabo ezinzima.
Okwesibini, ukufudumala kwamaqondo okufudumala komhlaba jikelele kuncibilikisa i-polar ice kunye ne-glaciers. Oku kwaphakamisa amanqanaba olwandle malunga neHouston ngamasentimitha ayisithupha kwiminyaka engama-20 edluleyo.
Okwesithathu, ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuye kwanyusa iipatheni zezulu kwindawo. Oko kwavumela uHarvey ukuba ahambe ngaphezu kweHouston kunokuba abuyele elwandle. Ukuguqulwa kwazo zonke iziphumo ezintathu kwavumela uHarvey ukuba ahlazise iinyawo zemvula endaweni yee intshi.
Indlela Ukufudumala Kwehlabathi Kuye kwaxhaswa ngayo iNtshontsho kaTrump
Inqaku eDer Speigel , iphephandaba laseJamani, laphawula ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kunokuchaphazela ukhetho lwase-US. Ngo-2007, iKomidi yeNobel yanikezela iAl Gore iSigxina soxolo sokuthumela umqondiso kubenzi be-US. Kwakuyilumkiso kwiUnited States ukuhlala ngaphakathi kwendlela.
Kodwa i-Gore factor inefuthe elinamandla kakhulu kummandla ongaphantsi kwezopolitiko zengxabano, engena ngaphakathi kwizinga elingafihliyo laseMerika eliphakathi. Indlela yalo yobomi - kwaye lo ngumyalezo wangempela emva kwesigqibo seKomidi yeNobel - asisigxina.
Iphephandaba liqikelele ukuba bekuya kubakho abaviwa beqela eliluhlaza ngenxa yoko. Ekuqaleni, kubonakala kusebenza. Ngo-2007, iSebe lezeMandla lenze imali engama-1 bhiliyoni eyi-$ ukukhupha i-industry ye-biofuels ukwenzela ukunciphisa i-greenhouse gases. Iimveliso ezili-100 ze-biofuel zavelisa i-ethanol ezingama-6.4 ezigidigidi ezigidi ezingama-acre zezigidi. Oku bekuyi-20 ekhulwini yemveliso yeeyolimo zaseMelika, eyayiqhuba amaxabiso embewu kwiirekhodi ze-$ 4 ngebhasi. Ekubeni ubuninzi beemveliso zengqolowa zisetyenziselwa ukondla imfuyo, oku kubangele ukuba amaxabiso okutya atyuke iipesenti ezine. (Umthombo: "I-Biomass 2008: Ukunika Ikusasa lethu," iSebe leMandla, ngo-Apreli 2008. "Ixabiso lee-Biofuels," iMit Technology Review, uJanuwari / Februwari 2008.)
Kodwa iminyaka engama-10 kamva, i-America "inqanaba eliphakathi lokungaqiniseki" lavukela "i-Gore factor". Ngo-2016, wakhetha uDonald Trump kwi-ofisi kaMongameli.
NgoJuni 1, 2017, uTumpump wazisa ukuba iUnited States iya kuhoxisa kwi-Paris Climate Agreement. Uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali lwayo lwe-2018 luye lwaxhaswa ngemali yocwaningo lotshintsho lwimo Yinqumle ibhajethi ye-Arhente yokuKhuselwa kweNdalo ngama-31 ekhulwini Walaya umlawuli we-EPA ukuba aguqule imigangatho kwi-tuilpipe emissions.
I-Trump kunye namanye amaRiphabhulikhi akholelwa ukuba ukuzinza okuzinzileyo kuya kuthintela ukukhula koqoqosho. Kodwa ke uNewt Gingrich okhuselekileyo akavumelaniyo kwincwadi yakhe A Contract kunye noMhlaba. Wayexela ukuba ukugcinwa kwendalo kunye nokuchuma kwezomnotho akukude kunye. Wathi, "ukuba izinga lokusingqongileyo linciphisa ngokwaneleyo, uqoqosho aluyi kukwazi ukusebenza konke."
Into onokuyenza
Ininzi (iipesenti ezingama-71) zaseMerika zikholelwa ukuba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kuyinyani . Phantse ezibini kwisithathu (iipesenti ezingama-64) zikholelwa ukuba zichaphazela imozulu yase-US. Phantse ihafu (45 ekhulwini) bakholelwa ukuba kuyingozi enkulu ebomini babo. Ngaphezu kweyodwa kwabahlanu banenkxalabo ngokufudumala kwehlabathi. Amashumi amahlanu anesine amaMerika akholelwa ukufudumala kwehlabathi kubangelwa ngabantu. Ingxenye yesithathu kuphela ikholelwa ukuba ivela kwizizathu zendalo.
Ukuba ufuna ukuxhasa imizamo yokunciphisa ukufudumala kwehlabathi, kukho amanyathelo athile onokuthatha. Khawula isilwanyana sakho sokushushu ngokuhlala kwindlu encinci kwaye uqinisekise ukuba unesisindo esihle. Thenga i-appliances ye-EnergyStar ekhaya. Yidla inyama encinane. Ukuthenga iimveliso ezininzi zendawo ukuze unciphise ukukhutshwa kwezinto zokuthumela. Vala izibane uze ukhuphe idivayisi xa ungasebenzisi.
Indlela oqhuba ngayo kunye nokugcina imoto yakho inokuphucula kakhulu i-mileage. Gcina amathayi ahluthwe, utshintshe ifowuni yomoya, ukhawuleze emva kokuyeka, uze uqhube ngaphantsi kweekhilomitha ezingama-60 ngeyure. Oku kuya kunciphisa ukukhishwa kwamagesi e-greenhouse. Ukufumana amacebiso amaninzi, jonga "Umshini Othethiweyo," I-Economist, ngo-Apreli 9, 2007. (Umthombo: I- Panneal Governmental Panel on Climate Change , 2014.)