Ukuphakama kwamazinga oLwandle oTshintshayo kwiLizwe lakho
Isantya senguqu sanda. Njengoko itheyibhile engezantsi ibonisa, amazinga olwandle aphakama phantse i-1 1/4 ye-intshi phakathi kuka-2000 no-2010. Bavuka enye i-7/8 yamasentimitha phakathi ko-2010 no-2015. Kulo nqanaba lwakutsha nje, ngo-2020 baya kwanda 1 3/4 intshi kwiminyaka emihlanu nje.
| Unyaka | Ukwandiswa kokuQinisekisa (intshi) | Ukunyuka nge- minyaka eyiNyanga (intshi) |
|---|---|---|
| 1880 | 0 | 0 |
| 1890 | 0.4 | 7/16 |
| 1900 | 1.1 | 11/16 |
| 1910 | 1.3 | 3/16 |
| 1920 | 1.9 | 11/16 |
| 1930 | 2.1 | 3/16 |
| 1940 | 2.6 | 9/16 |
| - 1950 | 3.6 | Phantse enye intshi |
| 1960 | 4.5 | Phantse enye intshi |
| 1970 | 4.7 | 3/16 |
| 1980 | 5.6 | Phantse enye intshi |
| 1990 | 6.2 | 11/16 |
| 2000 | 6.9 | 11/16 |
| 2010 | 8.1 | 1 3/16 |
| 2015 | 8.9 | 7/8 kwiminyaka emihlanu |
| 2020 | 9.9 | 1 3/4 |
Indlela Ososayensi abazi ngayo amanqanaba olwandle aphezulu
Iingcali zenzululwazi ngokuchanekileyo zilinganisa ukuphakama kwamanzi olwandle jikelele ngeendlela ezintathu. Ukususela ngo-1992, i-NASA iqokelele idatha kwi-satellites. I-NASA iphinda isebenzise iigidiji zamanzi kwiindawo ezininzi zehlabathi ukufumana umyinge wehlabathi jikelele. Iigraji zithintela impembelelo yamagagasi kunye namanxuwa ukuba afunde ngokuchanekileyo.
Indlela yesithathu ihlolisisa ukubunjwa kwamadwala. Iingcali zenzululwazi zisebenzisa le ndlela ukuze zichonge amanqanaba olwandle izigidi zeminyaka edlulileyo. Bakhangele iifosilwandle zezilwanyana zaselwandle, iiplithidi zokugcina, kunye nezenzo zamagagasi.
I ziphumo
Ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle kuthintela kuma-40 ekhulwini aseMelika ahlala kummandla wonxweme.
Amanqanaba aphakamileyo aya kuchaphazela ezi zibhozo zezona zixeko ezikhulu kunxweme. Uvavanyo lweHarvard lubonise ukuba ukuphakama kwamanyathelo amathathu kuya kuchitha abantu abayizigidi ezingama-4.2 .
Amanzi amanzi atyuwa angena emanzini angaphantsi komhlaba aze afike emhlabathini. Iphazamisa ukulinganiswa kweekhemikhali zee-estuari. Amanzi aseSaltier ayonakalisa imibhede ye-oysters kunye neendawo zokuhlala kweentaka.
Ukwanda kosawoti e-Bangladesh, eVietnam nakwamanye amazwe aseNingizimu Afrika ogwini kunomngcipheko wokuvelisa irayisi.
Ukuphakama kwamanxweme okunyuka kwamanzi kukugqithisa ukukhukula kwamadolophu asezantsi. Izikhukula ziye zahlasela iidolophu zaseNxweme zase-US ezintathu ukuya kwezi-9 ngokuphindaphindiweyo ngaphezu kokuba zenza iminyaka engama-50 edlulileyo.
E-Miami, eFlorida, amanqanaba aselwandle amaninzi akhukula izitrato ngexesha lokuhamba kwamanzi. Ukujongana, iSixeko saseMiami Beach siqalise iminyaka emihlanu, i-$ 500 yezigidi zemisebenzi yoluntu. Isixeko kufuneka sikhulise iindlela, zifake iimpompo, kwaye zibuyisele kwakhona uxhumano lwamanzi olwandle ukuze kugcinwe ulwandle olukhukula kwizitrato. Umkhukula usuvele udibene nexabiso lexabiso lempahla kwindawo. Abaphengululi baseHarvard bafumanisa ukuba amaxabiso asekhaya kwiindawo eziphantsi kweMiami-Dade County kunye ne-Miami Beach zikhula ngokukhawuleza kunezona zonke iFlorida. Ucwaningo olusebenzisa i-Zillow lubone ukuba izakhiwo ezisengozini yokunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle zithengisa kwisaphulelo esingu-7% kwiipropati ezifananisiweyo ezingekho engozini.
I-Atlantic City, eNew Jersey, inobungozi ngenxa yeso siqithi esinomqobo esinendawo ephantsi. Idolophana ihlala ikhukula xa imvula. Ekubeni liphantsi kakhulu, ukuqhuma kwesantya esinezinyawo ezine kuya kukhukula iipesenti ezingama-50. Ukunyuka okufanayo kwidolophu ephakamileyo, njengeBoston, bekuza kukhukhula iipesenti ezi-7 kuphela.
UAnapolapolis, Maryland, naye ufumana izikhukhula ezivela emanzini amakhulu.
Esi sixeko sibeka iifudu eziphantsi ukuze zikhusele amanzi ezikhukhula kwizakhiwo zembali. Ukuba amanzi elwandle aya ku-3.7, i-US Naval Academy iya kuba ngaphantsi kwamanzi.
ELouanaana, ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle kunamanzi amanxweme aseMississippi. I-Louisiana ilahlekelwa i-acre enye iyure yeemigxobhozo. Ezi ndawo zondla iindawo zokuloba, kwaye zikhusela i-New Orleans kwiindwangu.
Ukuphakama kwamaqondo olwandle kunye kunye nomhlaba odibeneyo kuya kukhukhula iindawo ezininzi eziseSan Francisco ngo-2100. Umhlaba uphonkca ngenxa yokupompa amanzi emanzini. Icandelo le-moya, kunye neecetinos ezinkulu zeSixeko soManyano, i-Foster City, kunye neSiqithi se-Treasure, bekuya kuba ngaphantsi kwamanzi.
Ukuphakama kwamaqondo olwandle kunomonakalo omkhulu kunokutshabalaliswa kweziphepho . Eyeshumi elinesixhenxe yeentsholongwane ezingama-20 ezonakalisa i-US kwimbali zenzeke emva ko-2000. Zintathu zazo zenzeke ngo-2017.
- NgoSeptemba 20, 2017. Isiphepho seMaria sasisiqendu sesi-4 xa sachitha iPuerto Rico. Ixabise i-$ 90 billion ngeyona mali. Uhlawulo oluseburhulumenteni olusesikweni lwangama-64, kodwa uhlalutyo lweNew York Times luthi lungenokuba ngu-1,052.
- NgoSeptemba 10, 2017. Iintshukumo i-Irma yiyona ntshukumo enamandla kakhulu e-Atlantiki kwimbali ebhaliweyo. Ukulimala kwakuyi-$ 50 yezigidigidi. I-AccuWeather ixabiso elilinganiselwa kwiindleko kwi-$ 100 yezigidigidi. KwakuyiCandelo lesi-4 isiqhwithi xa sifike eFlorida. Kwakuyiyokuqala kwiminyaka eyi-100 ukuba iziphepho ezimbini zididi lwe-4 okanye ezinkulu zibetha ilizwe lase-United States ngaloo nyaka. Amandla e-Irma amandla aphethwe ngamaqondo angamaqondo angamaqondo angama-86 degrees Fahrenheit.
- Agasti 25, 2017. Iphepho iHarvey yayiyiSigaba sesi-4 esiqhwithela iTexas. Ukulimala kwakuyi $ 125 billion. Kwachaphazela abantu abayizigidi ezili-13 eTexas, eLouasana, eMississippi, eTennessee naseKentucky. Abantu abangamashumi asibhozo anesibhozo bafa ngenxa yesiphango.
- Ngo-Oktobha 29, 2012. Isiqhwithi iSandy sasiqhwithi esiphezulu esasihlasela iNew York neNew Jersey. I-Storm surges yayingama-12 1/2 ngamanqanaba angaphezu kweqhelekileyo kwi-Kings Point, eLong Island. Isiqhwithi sabonakalisa amakhaya ama-650 000, kwaye abantu abayizigidi ezili-8 balahlekelwa amandla. Yanyanzelela iNew York Stock Exchange ukuba ivale iintsuku ezimbini, okokuqala kuvalwa ngenxa yemozulu ukususela ngo-1888.
- Ngo-Agasti 29, 2005. Isiqhwithi sikaKatrina saba sisiqendu sesi-5 esakhula i-New Orleans ngo-2008. Sabiza i-$ 108 billion kwaye sabulala abantu abayi-1,836. Isiqhwithi sawo saqhambuka kwiindawo ezili-27. Isixeko sasilahlekelwe isiqingatha sabantu abangama-450 000 kwaye asizange siphume ngokupheleleyo.
Igalelo elizayo kwiimvunguvungu libi kakhulu. I- Ofisi yeBhajethi ye-Congressional iqikelele ukuba i-1.2 yezigidi zaseMerika zihlala kwimimandla yonxweme engozini "yomonakalo omkhulu" kwiindwangu. Ininzi yale ndawo enabantu abaninzi ihlala ngaphantsi kweenyawo ezili-10 ngaphezu kolwandle lolwandle, ngokutsho kweNational Hurricane Centre. Isiqhwithi esingama-23 senyawo sasiza kukhukhula ngamaphesenti angama-67 ase-US, aquka ama-57 eepesenti zendlela ezihamba phambili. Ukugqithisa okukhulu okunjalo kwakuza kufikelela kwisiqingatha seekhilomitha ezili-125, kunye neendawo zonke zokungena kwii-Gulf Coast.
Oorhulumente beeNgingqi benza utyalo-mali olubi kwizame ukulungiselela. ISithili saseSan Diego kwindawo yaseCalifornia ekhuseleyo yakha isityalo esikhulu sokususwa kwamanzi olwandle olusentshonalanga. Iingxelo zokubuyiselwa kwe-MIT Technology ukuba izityalo ziya kuba neendleko nge $ 1 billion.
NgoSeptemba 2016, iZiko leMozulu kunye noKhuseleko likhuphe ingxelo engummangaliso wempembelelo yokuphakama kwamanxweme ukulungiswa kwempi . Umkhosi waseMelika unamaziko angama-1,774 kuma-95 471 ngamanxweme enxweme. Ezizo ndawo zisengozini yokukhukula ukusuka kwinqanaba elwandle. Iindawo ezingaphezu kwama-30 kwilizwekazi lase-United States sele sele zihluma kwizinga lokunyuka kolwandle. Iziganeko ezingaphezulu zexesha eliqhelekileyo kunye ezinamandla ziyakuchukumisa zonke iziseko, kodwa ngokukodwa ezo zikummandla wasePacific. Ezi ziseko zisoloko zikhupha iinzame zoncedo lweentlekele.
Ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle kuya kunyusa ukufuduka . Abemi abavela kwimimandla yonxweme kumazwe athengisayo athengayo baya kuhamba. Abanako ukubeka imingcele okanye ukufaka iimpompo. Ezinye iintlanga zesiqithi se-atoll, ezifana ne-Maldives kunye ne-Seychelles, ziya kuba ngaphantsi kwamanzi. Ngama-2050, iipesenti ezingama-17 zaseBangladesh ziza kukhukhula, zikhuphe abantu abayizigidi ezili-18. Abahlali babo baya kuthuthela kwamanye amazwe.
IJakarta, e-Indonesia, ikhaya labantu abayizigidi ezingama-30. Iipesenti ezingamashumi amane zesixeko ziphantsi kwezantsi elwandle. Utshintsho lwemozulu luyingxenye yengxaki. Isixeko sitshisa njengoko abahlali baxhamla i-aquifer phezu kwayo.
Amanqanaba olwandle asongela ukhenketho kunye neendawo zembali . KwiSiqithi se-Easter, izidumo ezidumileyo zeMoai ziya kutshatyalaliswa ukuba ulwandle lukhuphuke ezintandathu. I-Marshall Islands iyaphela. Ziphantsi kweenyawo ezintandathu ngaphaya komgangatho wolwandle. Kodwa utshintsho lwemoya yolwandle luye lwaphakamisa amanqanaba olwandle ngonyawo kule minyaka engama-30 edluleyo. Abahlali abangama-70,000 baya kuthuthela eMelika, ngenxa yesivumelwano sika-1986.
Izizathu
Ngaba ukufudumala kwehlabathi kubangele ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle? Ucwaningo lweYunivesithi yaseRuthgers lubonise ukuba ukufudumala kwamaqondo okushisa emoyeni kuncedise kwisiqingatha sokwanda. Ubungakanani obufudumele? Ngaphezulu kwekhulu leminyaka edlulileyo, ukufudumala kwemoya yomhlaba kuye kwafudumala ngo-1.00 degrees Fahrenheit. Abaphandi bafumanise ukuba u-2017 ngumnyaka ofudumalayo kwiirekhodi. Ngenxa yoko, ii-2,300 zamanxweme ezinxweme ezifudumele zifudumala nge-0.18 degrees Fahrenheit. Njengalamanzi akho okubhukuda, amanzi elwandle ahlalutya ngakumbi kunomoya.
Ulwandle olufudumalayo lubangela ukuphakama kwamanzi olwandle ngeendlela ezimbini. Okokuqala, amanzi afudumele athatha indawo engaphezulu. Phantse isiqingatha sezinga lokunyuselwa kolwandle kwinqanaba elidlulileyo kukuba ngenxa yalo mphumo.
Okwesibini, ukushisa okufudumalayo kuncibilikisayo amaqabunga eqhwala iGreenland kunye ne-polar ice caps. Ngobusika, ikhephu liyakhiwa kwakhona iqhwa. Kodwa ukushisa okufutshane kunokuba kuthathe ixesha elincinci lokuba amanzi aphephe kwaye aphenduke iqhwa. Ngenxa yoko, amanzi amaninzi ahlala elwandle kwaye i-glaciers ayakhiwanga kwakhona. Ngelo xesha, amanzi amaninzi angena elwandle ukusuka kwiqhwa elincinci.
Amanzi ancibilikiweyo adibanisa namanzi olwandle ngaphantsi kweengqayi zeqhwa. Yakha umlambo phantsi kweemvula eziqhoqhawulezileyo zibafake ngokukhawuleza ukuya elwandle. Amaqondo okushisa olwandle aphakamileyo ahlanganisane namaqondo aphezulu aphezulu okutshisa i-ice sheet ezivela phezulu kunye nezantsi ngexesha elinye.
Phakathi ko-2002 kunye no-2016, i-Antarctica yalahleka iigigatoni ezili-125 zeqhwa ngonyaka. Yanikeze i-0.013 intshi yokunyuka kwamazinga olwandle ngonyaka. Ininzi yale lahleko yenzeke kwi-West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
Isantya sephepha eliqhaqhazelayo likhawuleza. Phakathi ko-2010 kunye no-2016, umgca we-grounding uhlawule ngamanqanaba angama-600 ngonyaka. Umgca wokubeka umgca wendawo yokugqibela apho iqhwa lihlangana khona. Umzila ohamba phambili uthetha amanzi ashushu olwandle afudumele ngaphantsi kwe-glacier ngelixa ukufudumala kwamaqondo okufudumala emoyeni kuhlaselwa phezulu. Iqinisa inkxalabo malunga neyona nto ibuhlungu ngayo i-Antarctic meltdown ephakamisa amanqanaba olwandle elinye iinyawo ezili-21 nge-2100. Kunokwanela ukubeka i-FDR Drive kunye ne-Avenue Avenue kwi-Upper East Side eManhatten phantsi kwamanzi.
I-Antarctica inamaphesenti angama-90 e-ice. Ukuba konke kuyanyibilika, amanqanaba olwandle aya kuphakama ngamama-200.
Ngethuba elifanayo, iGreenland yalahlekelwa iingu-280 gigatoni zeqhwa ngonyaka. Iyancibilika kwizinga elikhawulezileyo kwiminyaka engama-450 edluleyo. I-ice melting yongezelela i-0.03 intshi nganye ngonyaka ukwenyuka kwamanqanaba olwandle. Ilahleko ezibi kakhulu zenzeke ecaleni lonxweme laseWest Greenland. Ukuba iqela leqhwa laseGreenland liyancibilika ngokupheleleyo, liza kuphakamisa amanqanaba olwandle ngama-16-23 inyawo. Kwanele ukubeka i-New Orleans, i-Miami kunye ne-Amsterdam phantsi kwamanzi.
UkuLungiswa kweNqanaba lokuLwandle
Oososayensi baqikelela ukuba, ukuba utshintsho lwemozulu alubanjwanga, amanqanaba olwandle amanqanaba aya kuphakama phakathi kweenyawo ezimbini neenyawo ngo-2100. I-Intergovernmental Panel yokuTshintsho kwemozulu yiqela lamazwe ngamazwe eengcali zezulu. Azinokwenza iingcebiso okanye imigaqo-nkqubo. Bathetha nje ukuqwalasela malunga neenkcukacha abazifumanayo. I-Panel yashicilele le ngxelo ngo-2007.
Ngo-2018, abaphengululi basePotsdam babonise ukuba ixesha libalulekileyo. Ukulibaziseka kweminyaka emihlanu kunokunyusa amanqanaba olwandle ngamanye ama-7.8 intshi. Oko kukunyuka kwama-8.9 ukunyuka kwama-intshi okwenziwe ngowe-1880.
NgoFebruwari 2018, uphando lwe-NASA luxelile ukuba amanqanaba olwandle akhula ngokukhawuleza kunokuba i-IPCC ibikezele. Iqikelela ukuba amanqanaba olwandle aya kuba ngamasentimitha angama-26 ephakamileyo ngo-2100. Isekelwe kulo mlinganiselo wamva nje wokuqhaqhazela iqhwa eGreenland nase-Antarctica. Iingcali zenzululwazi zi lumkisa oku kuqikeleleka.
Ukuphakama kwamanyathelo amabini kuza kukhula kwezigidi zabantu abahlala kwiindawo eziphantsi. Kunokwanela ukunqumla amaninzi amakhulu ase-East Coast.
Ucwaningo lwaseNorth Carolina luka-2010 lwaxela ukuba amanqanaba olwandle aya kuphakama ngamathathu nge-2100. Oku kuya kukhukula abantu abangama-50 000 baseburhulumenteni. Kuya kutshabalalisa amashumi amawaka amaxabiso aphantsi kwebala elwandle.
Ngo-2017, abaphandi abakhokelwa yiYunivesithi yaseMelbourne, e-Australia baqikelele ukuba amanqanaba olwandle ayenokuphakama ngamanqanaba angama- 2100. Njengoko i-Antarctica iyancibilika, iya kufinyelela kumaxwebhu amakhulu amakhulu. Ubunzima babo buya kubangela ukuba baqhawule ngokukhawuleza kunokuba amacwecwe amancinci amancinci aphelileyo. Ukuphakama kwamanqanaba ezintandathu kuya kubeka i-Atlantic City ngaphantsi kwamanzi.
Ulawulo lweSizwe lwe-Oceanic kunye ne-Atmospheric Administration lunikeza umbonisi obenxibelelwano olubonisa ukuba oku kunye nezinye iimpembelelo zentambo yolwandle zikhuphuka kwiindawo zokunxweme. I-website ye-ShortList iphinda ibonise imizekeliso yokuba izixeko ezinkulu zizakujonga njani.
Ukukhawuleza kweNqanaba loLwandle lamanje liya phezulu
Izinga lolwandle lwakutshanje landa njani lithelekiswa nakwixesha elidlulileyo? Ngexesha lokugqibela i-Ice Age, inqanaba elwandle lalingamamitha angama-400 ngaphantsi kunanamhlanje. Kwakuyiminyaka eyi-26,500 eyadlulayo, emva kokuba i-Neanderthals yaphela (iminyaka engama-40,000 edlulileyo) kodwa ngaphambi kokuba uHomo sapiens afunde ukulima (iminyaka eyi-12 000 edlulileyo). Amaqabunga amakhulu eqhwa aphakanyiselwa kude kuseNew York kunye neeRockies. I-Great Britain, iJamani kunye nePoland nazo zagqitywa kwiqhwa. Amanqanaba olwandle aphantsi awatyhila ibhuloho yomhlaba waseBering esuka eSiberia ukuya eAlaska, evumela oookhokho baseMerika ukuba badlulele eMelika.
I-Ice Age yaphela xa ujikelezo lomhlaba lwalujikeleza ngakumbi elangeni. Ukukhanya kwelanga kwakubambelele emantla e-nantla ye-ice, eyayikhulile kakhulu inkulu. Xa zinyibilika, amanzi amanzi adluliselwa elwandle, aphendulele iilwandle ezisemanzini afudumele ukusuka kwinqanaba le-equator. Amanzi afudumele aphuma emzantsi, anyibilike i-Antarctic kwaye ayitshintsha imimoya ye-polar. Le mpendulo yamakhankethi yashiya i-carbon dioxide ukusuka kwi-Ocean ye-Southern ngamaqela angama-100 kwisigidi ngaphezu kwewaka leminyaka. Yimalunga nomlinganiselo ofanayo okhutshwe kwiminyaka engama-200 edlulileyo.
Ixesha lokugqibela elwandle lalo lifudumele liyiminyaka eyi-100 000 edlulileyo. I-Neanderthals yayihlala eYurophu. U-Homo Sapiens wayehlala e-Afrika, apho ukoma kunciphise abantu abangaphezu kwama-10,000. Kodwa amanqanaba olwandle ayenama-20 ukuya kuma-30 aphezulu. Kutheni amazinga olwandle aphakamileyo, xa i-carbon dioxide yayingafudumala kwimozulu? Umhlaba wawushintshile kwi-axis yayo kufuphi nelanga. Amanqanaba aphakamileyo asemlilweni ayefudumeza ukufudumala emoyeni nasemanzini ngexesha elidlulileyo leminyaka engama-4 000.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kwegesi etshayayo kutshanje kuye kwavutha umhlaba umlinganiselo ofanayo, kodwa kwiminyaka eyi-150 nje kuphela. Ukufudumala kwenzeke ngokukhawuleza kangangokuba i-ice iyanyibiliki. Kufana nokubeka i-ice cube kwikhofi eshushu. Emva kokuba amaqondo obushushu avela kumhlaba womhlaba abe nexesha lokuyibilikisa i-polar ice caps, amanqanaba olwandle angakhula enye i-20 ukuya kwi-30.
ZiSombululo
Ukuphakama kwamanxweme aphakamileyo ngamazwe aseMelika akhathazeka kakhulu xa kuthethwa ukutshintsha kwemozulu. I-Pew Research Study ifumene ukuba ama-17 ekhulwini aseMerika athi ukunyuka kwamaqondo olwandle kuyimpembelelo echaphazelekayo.
Oorhulumente sele beqalise ukujongana neempembelelo ezikhawulezileyo zokuphakama kwamanxweme. Iidolophu eziselunxwemeni zifaka iinkqubo zokuhambisa amanzi kunye nokwakhiwa kweevenkile. Iziqithi zaseSiqithi ziyahamba. Abakhenkethi bahambela ukuza kutyelela amabala ehlobo, njengeMaldives, ngaphambi kokuba bangaphantsi kwamanzi.
Isisombululo esisigxina kuphela sigxina okanye sitshintshe ukufudumala kwehlabathi. Isixa semithombo yegesi esitshatyalaliswayo ephuma emkhatsini womhlaba kufuneka yancitshiswe okanye isuswe. Ezi gesi zenza njengengubo phezu komhlaba. Ziyakuthintela ukushisa kwezinto zendalo zomhlaba ukuphuma kwiindawo. Endaweni yoko, ingubo ibuyisa kuMhlaba. Amanxweme angakwazi ukuthatha ubushushu ngaphandle kokuphakama okukhulu kwiqondo lokushisa. Kunoko, bayanda. Kodwa xa bathabatha konke abakwaziyo, ukunyuka kwamaqondo okushisa. Okokuqala kwenzeka ekuqaleni kwekhulu lama-20.
Xa imida imiselwe ngokuqinileyo, ukurhweba kwekhabhoni kungabhawula amabhizinisi anamathele kwi-cap. Iirhafu zeCarbon ziza kubahlwaya abo abangenalo.