Ukusetyenziswa kweMpahla yokuThuthwa kweDisgence njani?
Ngokomzekelo, ukungafani phakathi kwexabiso le-petroli kunye nokufudumala kweoli ngasekupheleni kuka-2015 nakwiminyaka yokuqala ye-2016 ngelixa ixabiso leoli engcolileyo elaliwayo liboniswa ukuba iimpahla zokutshisa ioli zazizininzi.
Ngexesha elifanayo, imfuno yecolori yenyuka ngexesha elincinci lonyaka loveliso lwemveliso yeoli, ixesha lonyaka xa iincwadi zisoloko ziphantsi. Kwakukho izizathu zokungafani phakathi kwamaxabiso eemveliso ezimbini zeoli. Isiqalo esifudumele ebusika sinciphisa imfuno yokutshisa ioli kunye nexabiso eliphantsi kwepetroli kwiminyaka yandisa imfuno evela kubaqhubi. Ekupheleni kuka-2015, intengo yeoli ye-NYMEX yecala yayiye ngaphaya kwama-30% ngokufudumala kweoli ngaphaya kwe-38% kunye ne-petroli ngaphantsi kwe-14% kuphela ngonyaka. Lo ngumzekelo wokungafani nokusabalala kwezinto zokuthengisa.
Sibone enye indlela eyahlukana ngayo ngo-2015, kwimpahla enesiprofayile esincinane kuneoli. Ukuqhutyelwa kwe- soybean kwandiswe ngokunyanisekileyo ngelixa iintlobo ezimbini zeemveliso zesoya zihamba ngexabiso. Iesyayi ezininzi zawela phantsi kwe-15% ngo-2015 ngonyaka. Okwangoku, intlawulo yesondlo se-soya yawa ngaphezulu kwama-27%.
Isidlo sisoloko sisisithako esibalulekileyo kwisondlo sezilwanyana kwaye sineminye imisebenzi kunye. Ioli ye-soybean yahlukana ukusuka kwintlawulo yesibini kunye nesyayi ebomvu ewela kuphela ngo-4.4% ngo-2015. Ioli ye-soybean ibalulekile ukupheka kunye nokutya okuninzi okufana nokugqoka i-saladi kunye ne-mayonnaise ziqukethe ioli ye-soybean eluhlaza.
Njengeoli yokufudumeza kunye nepetroli, eziyimveliso yesoyile engcolileyo, i-soybean kunye neoli ye-soya yimveliso yeesyayi ebomvu. Xa kuziwa ekuhlambiseni ioli, ukucubungulwa kwezinto ezingcolileyo zenzeke kwindawo yokucocwa kwi-cracker-catalytic cracker. Ngaloo ndlela, i-term crack spreads for the processing of oil into products. Ehlabathini leesyayi, ukusetyenziswa kwezinto ezisetyenziswayo zezolimo kwenzeka kwindawo yesityalo esiqhekezayo apho ukutya kunye neoli kuyimveliso yenkqubo yokuqothula yeembotyi ezinobumba.
Ubuninzi bokutya kweeSoybean
Ekuqaleni kuka-2015, ukusabalalisa ukusabalalisa ukuguqula i-soybean ekudleni kunye neoli kwakukho i-dollar 9 ngebhasi, ekupheleni konyaka ukusabalala kwintsikelelo kwakuyi-$ 6 ngezinga lebhasi. Oku kusixelela okuninzi malunga nemfuno yeesoya kunye nemveliso ye-soya ezithengisa kwicandelo le-CBOT yeCME . Okokuqala, isitsho ukuba isivuno esikhulu sonyaka ka-2015 sandise iifowuni zombini weesybe kunye nemveliso yesoya, ngoko kubangela ukuba amaxabiso awele. Okwesibini, lisitshela ukuba uqoqosho lwee-soybeans zokuvelisa iimveliso ze-soya ziye zaphuka ngaphezu konyaka. Ukwehla kokusasazeka kwento kuthetha ukuba ezo nkampani ezibandakanyekayo ekusebenzeni i-soybean zenza imali encinci kunokuba ekuqaleni kwe-2015. Imizekelo emibini yiArcher Daniels Midland (i-ADM) kunye ne-Bunge Limited (BG).
Ukungafani phakathi kwesondlo se-soya kunye namaxabiso eoli ye-soybean kuvelisa inkcazelo ebalulekileyo malunga neemfuno. Ngokucacileyo, imfuno yeoli ye-soyya yayiphilile kunokuba isidlo kulo nyaka. I-China, umthengi omkhulu weoli ye-soya eyanikezelwa isizwe esikhulu sabantu sisekela ixabiso leoli ye-soya njengoko beyidla kunye nokwakha i-inventories yemveliso ye-soya kwixesha elizayo. Nangona ixabiso lokwahlula ngokubanzi liye lawa, ukusetyenziswa kwesoyibe eluhlaza kwioli ye-soya kwakunenzuzo ngokwalo xa ukusetyenziswa kokutya kwakungekho. Iindleko zegalelo eziluhlaza ziphantsi kunexabiso lemarike yesiphumo esicatshulwayo. Ekubeni ixabiso leoli liphantsi kwe-4.4% kuphela kwaye ixabiso leembotyi eziluhlaza zahla ngaphaya kwe-14% ngo-2015, ioli ye-soya igcinwe kwiimida ezibini zeembotyi ezikhuniweyo ukuba zingabi nakwezinye izinto ngonyaka.
Ngaphezu koko, ngexesha elide, ixabiso lentengo yeesybean kunye neoli libuyele kumgangatho osondeleyo kumgangatho wesigxina ekuhambeni konyaka odlulileyo kubonisa ukuba ukungafani konyaka ngeminyaka kwakuye kulungiswa ixesha elide lokungafani phakathi kweemveliso ezimbini zesoya. Ukususela ngo-2013, intlawulo yesondlo se-soya ikhuphe ioli ye-soya. Umbono wembali uhlala ubalulekile xa kuziwa kubuhlobo bexabiso phakathi kwemveliso .
Ukulandela ukusabalalisa ukusabalala kunye namacandelo ayo njengokuba kunjalo kwesoya ye-soybean inqabile ukuvelisa izivuno ezibalulekileyo, iinkcukacha zangundoqo-xesha zangempela malunga neli xesha lexabiso lempahla . Le ngcaciso ayifumaneki ngokujonga ixabiso lentengo yeesyayi kunye neemveliso zesoya.