Ukusebenza kwangaphambili akukho Isiqinisekiso seZiphumo ezizayo

Indlela Ukuhlaziya Ukubuyiswa Kwempahla Ephakamileyo Ingabangela Iingxaki KwiPortfolio yakho

Naliphi na ixesha ufunda i- prospectus yesikhwama okanye enye inqaku lokutsalwa kweentengiso, mhlawumbi uza kufumana ibinzana eliphindaphindiwe, "Ukusebenza kwangaphambili akukho isiqinisekiso semiphumo yesikhathi esizayo." Kuthetha ukuthini kwaye kutheni kukho iifemu ezininzi zokulawula i-asethi, ingaba zixhaswa ngemali yenkcazo okanye iingxelo ezilawulwa ngabanye abatyali-zimali abacebileyo , bengazibandakanya kuyo? Kuya entliziyweni yento ebalulekileyo ukuba ufuna ukwenza izigqibo ezinengqiqo nokulawula umngcipheko wakho: Yiyona ndlela ibalwayo, kungekhona i-scorecard yakutshanje.

Umdlali onomdla weHockey uWayne Gretzky wachaza imfihlelo yakhe kwimpumelelo xa wathi, "hamba apho ipake iya kuba khona, kungekhona apho." Xa uhlalutya inkampani okanye ukuxhasana ngemali , abaninzi abatyala-mali baya kulungela ukuthobela isiluleko esifanayo. Esikhundleni saloo nto, baxhamla kwizinto eziyaziwayo kwishishini ngokuthi "ukusebenza ngokuxoshelwa." Ngokukhawuleza xa bebona isigaba esichukumisayo seklasi okanye icandelo, bathabatha imali yabo kwezinye iimali-mali kwaye bathululele into entsha yothando lwabo. Isiphumo sihambelana kakhulu nomntu osukela umbane-baya apho sele bahlasele khona kwaye bayazibuza ukuba kutheni baqhubeka behlanganiswa kwizinga eliphantsi lee-return rates ; intlekele ekhutshiswayo ngeendleko zokuxhatshazwa .

Oku akuyona into encinci. Iprojekthi yophando lwe-Morningstar yafumanisa ukuba ngamaxesha apho iimali zengxowa-mali zihlanganiswe kwi-9%, i-10%, i-11%, abatyali-mali abanjalo kuloo mali kuphela benza i-2%, i-3% kunye ne-4%, kuba babehlala bethenga nokuthengisa ngamaxesha angalunganga, ukuvumela iimvakalelo zabo ukuba zilawule kunokuba zithathwe ingqalelo kwixesha elide lotyalo-mali.

Ngokuphathelele kwimiphumo yokwakha ubutyebi , into eyingozi, ngokukodwa xa uyenze ukunyuka kwamaxabiso .

Yintoni eDlulileyo yokuSebenzeka kokuSebenzayo Ukuba ayikwazi ukuqikelela ukubuyiswa kwexesha elizayo?

Njengoko uBenjamin Graham, umnina wexabiso lokutshala imali, ubonisa ukuba, ukusebenza kwangaphambili kuncedo ekubaleni ixabiso le- stock , isibophelelo, isikhwama sokubambisana, okanye enye i-asethi kuphela ukubonisa oko kuza kuza kwikamva ngokubhekiselele kumvuzo womnini okanye ukulingana kwamanqaku omdla .

Ngokomzekelo, kunceda ukwazi indlela i-oil majors eyenze ngayo ngokudlulileyo kwixesha lokunciphisa amaxabiso angcolileyo ngenxa yokuba unokunika ingqiqo ngendlela osebenza ngayo ishishini. Unako ukungena kumantongomane kunye neebhontshi uze ubone into efanayo, yintoni eyahlukileyo, kwaye indlela eya kuchaphazela ngayo ukuhamba kwemali. Kuyavuya ukuba uqaphele ukuba umlinganiselo we- p / e kwiimpahla ze-oyile ziza kubonakala ziphantsi kakhulu xa zibiza kakhulu ngenxa yento eyaziwayo njengengxube yexabiso . Eyona insiza ethile.

Emuva kwangoko-2000, igolide elimnyama lalirhweba nge-$ 10 umgqomo kwaye abahlalutyi abambalwa kakhulu babone phambili ekupheleni kweengxaki zamacandelo ezogesi. Ukususela ngo-2016, imboni yimeko echaseneyo. Amanani e-oyile aphelile, abahlalutyi bamandla bathi kusenokugqibela kuze kube sekupheleni kweminyaka elishumi okanye ngaphezulu, kwaye izitokisi zecandelo ziye zatshatyalaliswa kanzima emva kweminyaka emininzi yokuchuma. Oku kuqhelekileyo kumashishini oli-oyile, kodwa abatyali-mali kaninzi abaziphatha ngendlela efana nayo.

Imibuzo Yokukunceda Uphephe Ukuxosha Ukusebenza Kwangaphambili

Umtyalo-mali unokukhusela njani ngokungena kwiqumrhu elitshisayo, i-fund, isitokisi, okanye i-aseset class, ekhohliswa yinto nje eyenziwa ngokutsha? Nazi imibuzo embalwa ongayifuna ukuzibuza yona inokwazi ukukhusela okungezelelweyo kwiinqununu ezingaphezu kweengqondo:

Ngamanye amazwi, imfihlelo emva kokuphutha ukusebenza kwexesha elidlulileyo kwiziphumo ezizayo, yayazi ukuba ngokuyininzi ihla kwi-flow flow flows. Ukuba uyayiqonda indlela ukuveliswa kwemali kuveliswa ngayo, yintoni ebenzelayo, ngokukhawuleza kangakanani ukuba bayakhula kwixesha elizayo, kwaye kubaluleke kangakanani ukulingana okubonakalayo ukuze kuveliswe, unako ukusebenzela abanye ngokuqhelekileyo kunoko.