I-asethi yipropati okanye into exabisekileyo. Izinto ezininzi ezibonakalayo nezingabonakaliyo ziyimpahla kodwa kwihlabathi lokutyalomali nokuthengisa kukho iiklasi zezinto. Kwabo batyale okanye bathengise umxhesho wabo, ukunyanzeliswa kwe-asethi kubaluleke kakhulu. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwemali yintlukwano yexabiso lempahla kwixesha. Ukubanzi kwexabiso lentengo ukusuka kwi-low to high kwi-day, kwiveki nganye, ngenyanga, okanye kwixesha elide eliphezulu liphakamisa ukungahambisani nokungafani.
Ezinye iimpahla zivame ukuba zinyameko kunabanye kwaye ngokuqhelekileyo ukungafani kweemarike ezenza zikhangele okanye zingabonakali kubachaphazelekayo bemarike abachaphazelekayo kwiprofayili. Xa sicinga ukuba yeyiphi i-asethi yokutshala imali okanye ukurhweba, enye yezona zinto zibaluleke kakhulu ukuhluka kwazo.
Ukunyaniseka: I-Paradesi yoMthengisi kodwa i-Nightmare ye-Investor's Nightmare
Ezi zixhobo ezinomgangatho ophezulu wokutshatyalaliswa zivame ukutsala abo bathengisayo abathengisa kunokuba abatyali-mali. Xa ixabiso le-asethi likhulu kakhulu, lenza umdla wokwenza umsebenzi ogqithisileyo kunye nexesha elifutshane. Ngako oko, iimarike ezinexabiso eliphezulu liba ngumthengisi weparadesi onika ithuba kwixa elizayo ngeli xesha ngexesha lomntu-mali otyalo-zimali njengoko abatyali-mali bathambekele ekufuneni imbuyekezo ngokukhawuleza ngokubaluleka okukhulu okanye isivuno.
Xa kuziwa kwiimarike ezithandwa kakhulu ukuba imarike edibeneyo yokujongana nabathathi-nxaxheba baqeshisa ukukhulisa amaqanda azo kwindla ahlukeneyo apho kufuneka ukhethe khona.
Amasheya, izibophelelo, iimali, kunye neempahla zikarhulumente ezine zikarhulumente ezidumileyo ezibonelela ngezigaba ezingafaniyo.
Equity Volatility
Iklasi ye-asethi yelungelo libandakanya ukwabelana kwiinkampani kunye neendleko ezibonisa ukungazinzi kwiimarike zentengiso jikelele okanye ngamacandelo ahlukeneyo kwiklasi yokulingana.
Ukutshala imali okanye ukurhweba kwimarike yezobulungisa kukude, ukhetho oludumileyo kubatyalomali.
Ngelixa zonke izitokethi zingenako ukungazami, ezo zikhokelo ezinjengeDow Jones Industrial Average okanye i-S & P 500 zithatha ukufana okufanayo okanye i-beta ngokuhamba kwesikhathi. Ewe, kukho amaxesha apho amaxabiso esitokisi aya kuhamba ngokuphawulekayo. Ukuhlaselwa kwemakethe ye-stock market ka-1929, 1987 kunye neengxaki zemali zehlabathi ngo-2008 ziyimimiselo yezihlandlo apho ama-stocks ashukunywe ngokukhawuleza. Uninzi kuninzi ekuqaleni kuka-2016, isalathisi se-S & P 500 sakhupha i-11.5 yeepesenti ngaphantsi kweeveki ezintandathu kwiiveki ngenxa yokusuleleka kwi-selloff kwimakethe yasekhaya yaseShayina. Njengoko i-US iyona qoqosho oluzinzile kakhulu kwihlabathi, izitokisi zase-US zivame ukungabi nenyameko kunabanye emhlabeni jikelele. Xa kuziwa kukungabikho komxholo we-S & P 500 Index, ukunyanzeliswa kwesiganeko sonyaka we-E-Mini S & P 500 isalathiso siba ngaphantsi kweepesenti ezili-10. Kule minyaka engamashumi amabini adlulileyo, sele isuka kwii-5.35 zeepesenti ukuya kuma-27.23 ekhulwini emva kweengxaki zemali ka-2008.
Bond Volatility
Izibondla zixhobo zetyala ezinikezela isivuno okanye isigqebhezana. Urhulumente ngamnye ehlabathini jikelele ubambisana nezibophelelo njengenkampani. Iibhondi zihlobo lokuxhaswa okanye ukuboleka kumazwe namashishini.
Abatyalomali kunye nabarhwebi abasebenzayo kwimarike emanyeneyo bajonga kumaxesha ahlukeneyo kwinqanaba lomvuno. Abatyala-mali bexesha elide kakhulu batyala ukujonga umlambo wengeniso ngelixa i-short-term instruments instruments can be more.
EUnited States, xa kuziwa kwityala lekarhulumente, ibhanki ephakathi okanye i-Federal Reserve ilawula ukuphela kwexesha elifutshane le-curve isivuno. Ireyithi yeFund Fund yenzalo yokuba iibhanki kunye neemanyano zeentengo zemboleko ziboleka ukugcina izilinganiso kwixesha lokulala. IKomiti yeMarike evulekileyo yolawulo lwe-Federal Federal Reserve kwaye ichaza inani leFund Fund. Isaphulelo sokunciphisa isantya esincinci senzalo esetyenziswe yi-Federal Reserve e-US ngokuboleka kwezinye iibhanki. Ngelixa ibhanki ephambili ilawula i-Fed Fund kunye nexabiso leSaphulelo, amaxabiso amabhonkco kunye nezixhobo zetyala kunye nokukhula okuqhubekayo kukusebenza kwemimandla yamakethi.
Iirhafu zexesha elifutshane ziyakuchukumisa amazinga aphakathi kunye nexesha elide kodwa iimeko ezihlukeneyo zihlala zikhona. Abathengisi beBond kaninzi badla iindawo ezide okanye ezimfutshane ngokubhekiselele kwimbono yabo yentlawulo. Isibambiso esinde ixesha elide ukubheja ukuba amaxabiso aya kulahla ngelixa isikhundla esifutshane sinombono wokuthi amaxabiso aya kuphakama. Abathengisi abaninzi abanamabhondi baya kubeka i-curve isivuno, ukukhula kancinci kunye nokwezinye ukusabalala ukuze baxhamle kwiimali ezingabalulekanga. Abatyalomali kwiimarike ezibopheleleyo bajonga isivuno esiphephekileyo esifanelekileyo seqanda lokutyalo. I-quarter-static history of state in the state of government in the US-30%. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwintliziyo kwanyusa phezulu ekupheleni kweengxaki zemali ka-2008.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kwemali
Idola iyimali yokugcina yehlabathi ngenxa yokuba iUnited States iyonaqoqosho olucebileyo nozinzo kakhulu emhlabeni. Ukutshintsha kwemali kuthatha iyancinci kunezinye iindidi zee-asethi kuba oorhulumente balawula ukushicilelwa kwemali kunye nokukhutshwa kunye nokugeleza kwinkqubo yemali yehlabathi. Oorhulumente balawula ukubonelelwa kwemali, ngokubanzi. Ukungazinzi kwemali kuxhomekeke kuzinzo zikaRhulumente. Ngako ke, i-dollar ithengisa kwi-intanethi engaphantsi kweRussia Ruble, okwenyaniso yaseBrazil okanye ezinye izinto zokutshintshiselana kwamanye amazwe ezincinci kwaye zingenakuncinci ukuba zigcinwe ngeemali ezigcinwe nguvimba boluntu kwihlabathi jikelele.
Inkcazo yesiganeko yesigxina sekota ye-dollar esukela ngo-1988 njengokuba iphuma kwi-4.37% ukuya kwi-15 ekhulwini kodwa isiqhelo sifunda ngaphantsi kwepesenti ezili-10.
Iimpahla
Ukungahambisani nokuthengwa kwempahla kubonakala kukuphakamileyo kweeklasi ze-asethi ezichazwe kweli nqaku. I-volatility yekota yeoli engcolileyo isukela kwi-12,63 kwipesenti ukuya kuma-90 ekhulwini ukususela ngo-1983. Uluhlu olufanayo kwiitriki zegesi yendalo luvela kwi-22.56 kweepesenti ukuya kuma-80 ekhulwini, ngexesha elifutshane, ukuhluka kwegesi yemvelo kuye kwadlula i-100 ekhulwini ngezihlandlo ezininzi.
Ukutshatyalaliswa kweengxelo zekota kwimizuzu engama-10 ukuya kuma-75 ekhulwini ukususela ngo-1970, kwaye udidi lwengqolowa luvela kwi-12% ukuya kuma-48 ekhulwini kwixesha elifanayo. Ukutshatyalaliswa kwekota kwintengiso yesiguphe isuka kwi-10,5 kweepesenti ukuya kuma-100 ekhulwini kunye nexesha lexesha lekhofi uhla lwe-11 ukuya kwi-90%. Ngesiliva, uluhlu luvela kwi-10% ukuya kwi-100 ekhulwini. Ekugqibeleni, igolide yintengiso ye-hybrid. Njengeebhanki eziphambili emhlabeni jikelele zibambe isinyithi ephuzi njengempahla egcinwe kuyo inendima ebini njengetsimbi okanye impahla kunye nexabiso lemali. Ngoko ke, uluhlu lwezithuba zemizuzu engama-4 ukuya kuma-40 ekhulwini ukususela kwiminyaka yee-1970 kubonakalisa uhlobo lwe-hybrid yexabiso legolide. Njengoko le mizekelo ichaza, ukungahambisani kwempahla ngexesha eliphezulu kuninzi kwaye kukho izizathu ezininzi zokubangela ukuba iimveliso zithande kakhulu kunezinye iimpahla.
Izizathu ezi-5 ziNinzi ziNinzi
Njengempahla, iimpahla zithande umdla wolomali kwiminyaka kodwa loo msebenzi ufika ngexesha leemarike zenkomo. Kule minyaka elishumi edlulileyo ukuqaliswa kweemoto zorhwebo ezintsha ezithengisa ukuthengisana kwemveli yemveli, i-ETF kunye nemveliso ye-ETN, ukhethe ukhetho lwabathathi-nxaxheba. Ngaphambi kokusungulwa kwabo, indlela yokutshala imali kwizinto eziphathekayo kwabangenayo i-akhawunti yengomso yayingumninimzi wezinto eziphathekayo okanye ngeendawo zokulingana kwiinkampani ezivelisa izinto ezibonakalayo. Okweninzi, iimveliso ziye zatsalwa ngotyalo-mali kodwa kubarhwebi behlabathi, izinga eliphakamileyo lokungazinzi ngokuphindaphindiweyo lenza ukuba libe yimpahla ekhethiweyo xa kufikelele kumathuba amashishini amashishini amashishini ambalwa. Iimpahla zithe gqolo kunezinye ixabiso kwizizathu ezihlanu eziphambili:
1. Utywala:
Iimarike zezobulungisa, izibophelelo kunye neemali zithatha umthamo omkhulu wemali nganye ngosuku. Ukuthengwa nokuthengisa kule makila asethi kuye kwanda ngaphezu kweminyaka ukuya kumanani amaninzi. Nangona kunjalo, izinto ezininzi ezithengisa i-future exchange exchanges zinikezela ubuncinane okanye ixabiso lokuthengisa kunezinye izinto eziqhelekileyo. Ngelixa ioli negolide zizinto ezithengiswa ngokuthengisa izinto, ezi marike zingakwazi ukunyaniseka ngamanye amaxesha zinikwe ithuba lokugcina iziganeko ezingapheliyo.
2. Uhlobo loMama:
Uhlobo lwamaMawo lunquma imozulu kunye neentlekele zemvelo ezenzeka emhlabeni jikelele ngezikhathi ezithile. Inyikima eChile, umkhiqizi omkhulu wehlabathi wobhedu, inokubangela intonga kwixabiso lentsimbi ebomvu. Isomiso eUnited States sinokubangela ukuba amaxabiso endle kunye nama-soybe afakwe esibhakabhakeni njengoko izivuno zezityalo ziyancipha. Sazibona nje ngo-2012. Ixesha elibanda kakhulu lokubanda nobusika luya kukwandisa imfuno yerhasi yemvelo ukuthumela amaxabiso ezinkontileka zexesha elizayo ukwenzela ukuthengiswa kwempahla yamandla. Ngo-2005 no-2008, iindubane ezithintela iLouanana Coast yase-US kwaye zawonakalisa iziseko zegesi zendalo zenza ukuba ixabiso lexesha elizayo liphakame kwixesha eliphezulu. Le mizekelo embalwa nje yokuba izenzo zendalo zingabangela njani ukunyuka okukhulu kwixabiso lentengo.
3. Ukubonelela kunye nokufuna:
I-determinate enkulu yendlela yokuncincila ubuncinci kwixabiso lezinto ezibonakalayo libonelela kwaye lifuna . Ukuveliswa kweempahla kubakho kwiindawo zehlabathi apho umhlaba okanye isimo sezulu sisekela izityalo, apho iindawo zokugcina iimpahla ezikhoyo zikhona kwi-crust of land and extraction zingenzeka ngeendleko eziphantsi kwexabiso lemarike. Ukufuna, ngakolunye uhlangothi, lukhoyo. Phantse wonke umntu ehlabathini lomhlaba ngumthengi wezinto eziphathekayo eziyizinto eziqhelekileyo zobomi bemihla ngemihla. Ngoko ke, ukubonelelwa kunye nokufuna ukulingana kwizinto ezibonakalayo yiloo nto ibangele ibenze ezinye zezinto ezinokuzithengisa kwihlabathi xa zifika kumaxabiso.
4. I-Geopolitics:
Ngenxa yokuba izinto zokugcina impahla zikhoyo kwiindawo ezithile zeplanethi yethu, imiba yezopolitiko kwindawo enye ihlala ithintela amaxabiso. Ngokomzekelo, xa i-Iraq ihlasela i-Kuwait ngo-1990, ixabiso leoli engcolileyo liphindwe kabili kwiiveki ezalandela kwiikontraki ze-NYMEX kunye ne-Brent ezikufutshane. Xa uMongameli waseUnited States wakhulula ioli kwi-reserve ye-petroleum reserve (SPR), ixabiso lalingene kwisiqingatha sexabiso. Ukongezelela, iimfazwe okanye ubundlobongela kwiindawo ezithile zehlabathi zingavimbela iindlela zokuhamba ezikwenza nzima okanye zingenakwenzeka ukuthutha ukusuka kwiindawo zokuvelisa ukuya kwiindawo zokutya emhlabeni jikelele. Iirhafu, inkxaso-karhulumente okanye ezinye izixhobo zezopolitiko zihlala ziguqula ixabiso lentengo kwizinto ezidityanisayo.
5. Ukunyusa:
Indlela yendabuko yokurhweba okanye ukutyalomali kwizinto eziphathekayo ihamba ngeemarike ezizayo . Ixesha elizayo libonelela ngezinga eliphezulu lokuphakamisa. Umthengi okanye umthengisi wekontrakthi yexesha elizayo ufuna kuphela ukwenza intlawulo encinci okanye ukukholelwa okulungileyo, umda , ukulawula inzala enkulu yemali kwimpahla. Amanani omarho okuqala ahlala phakathi kwama-5-10 ekhulwini kwixabiso leenkontileka zexabiso lemveliso. Ngako oko, ukuphakanyiswa kwenkxaso yeempahla eziza kubathengisi kunye nabatyalomali xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxabiso aphezulu kakhulu.
Izinto eziqhelekileyo zivame ukuba yinkalo ye-asset eninzi kakhulu. Ukuqonda nokubeka ingqalelo ukungazinzi kuyindlela ebalulekileyo kubatyalomali kunye nabahwebi ngokufanayo. Xa uqikelele umngcipheko ngokuphathelele kwiprofayili yomvuzo kwanoma yiphina impahla, ukunyanzelisa kuyimilinganiselo yezinto eziza kunceda ukuchaza iiparitha.