Ekuphandeleni iMimangaliso Yezoqoqosho Elandelayo
Ukuba wacinga ukuba zonke iimarike ezikhulayo zifana, cinga kwakhona. Oku kungenzeka ukuba yinyani xa amaxabiso emveliso ayanda, kodwa indlela nganye ilizwe elikhulayo elijongene ngayo ibhonasi ngoku yenza ukubahluko malunga nendlela baya kuqhuba ngayo phambili. Funda le ncwadi, kwaye ulungise utyalo-mali lwakho kwiimpahla zorhwebo kunye nezibophelelo.
Umbhali, uRuchir Sharma, umphathi wezemali-mveliso okhulayo we-Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
Ulawula iiligidi eziyi-25 zamaRandi kwiimpahla zentengiso ephumayo, ngoko ubeka imali yakhe apho umlomo wakhe ukhona. Uhamba ngeveki enye ngenyanga kwiimarike ezahlukeneyo aze abhale amanqaku malunga nokufunyaniswa kwakhe kwi-Newsweek, kwi-Wall Street Journal kunye ne-Economic Times. Uyifingqa iziphumo zakhe kule ncwadi.
Iimarike ezikhulayo ziqhelekileyo ezifumaneka kwi- MSCI Index . Le mizila yamazwe angama-21, kuquka neBrazil, iChile, iColombia, iColombia, i-Yiphuya, i-Hongrie, i- Indiya , i-Indonesia, i-Korea, iMalaysia, iMexico, iMorocco, iPeru, iPhilippines, iPoland, iRashiya, eMzantsi Afrika, eTaiwan, eThailand naseTurkey. . Nantsi uMnu Sharma uthatha ininzi yabo.
Iintlanga zokuPhula
I-China - Kuza kubakho uhlahlo lwezoqoqosho olulawulwayo, oluya kuba nefuthe kuwo onke amazwe axhomekeke kuwo kwizorhwebo. Amandla asebekhulile. Jonga Ukukhula koqoqosho lweChina, iiNguqulelo zaseChina, iMali- mboleko yase-United States kwiChina .
IRiphabhliki yaseCzech - Ukukhula ngokukhawuleza ukuba ube sisizwe esityebi.
Amatyala akhululekile. Icandelo lezemali elinamandla kunye nokuthumela ngaphandle kwiJamani. Inxalenye ye-EU kodwa ayikho i-eurozone, ngoko iyakucwangcisa imali yayo xa ifunekayo.
I-Indonesia - Uqoqosho oluphezulu kakhulu lwezoqoqosho. Ukwanele kwabemi basekhaya ukuze kugcinwe ukufunwa kwemfuno, ukuthunyelwa ngaphandle kwe-25% ye-GDP. Ukwanele ukugcinwa kwekhaya ukuxhasa imali-mali, ityala eliphantsi.
Kulula ukwenza ishishini.
IKorea - Inkcazo ye-KOSPI yinkcazo yeendlela zehlabathi ngenxa yokuba iinkampani zaseKorea zibadlali abakhulu kumashishini emhlabeni jikelele. Uthintele kwi-capitalist crony. Ukulungele ukufumana iNorth Korea kunye nabasebenzi bayo ukuba (nini?) Iyawa. Isakhiwo samandla. "IJamani yaseAsia."
IPoland - Akuzange ihlaselwe yintlupheko yemali ka-2008. Amatyala akhululekile. Ukudala imisebenzi. Imarike yasekhaya ikhulu ngokwaneleyo ukudala ukukhula koqoqosho. Iindawo ezintle zokufumana izivumelwano zezorhwebo ze-EU, kodwa zingakwazi ukugcina imali yazo. Iqela le-PIS elilondolozayo lithatha amandla ngo-Oktobha 25, 2015. Ukuba lukhupha inkululeko kwaye igxininise ekugcineni amandla amaninzi, anokunciphisa ukukhula koqoqosho. (Umthombo: "I-Conservative Enigma," i-Economist, Oktobha 31, 2015)
ISri Lanka - Abasebenzi abakhulu ngokubhala, abakwiindlela zokuhamba, utyalo-mali karhulumente kwiziseko kunye noqeqesho.
ETaiwan - Abakhi bezinto zokubonelela ngeenkampani zangaphandle. Kukho uqoqosho oluqinileyo, kodwa luwela emva kweKorea. Ipesenti ezingamashumi amane ezithunyelwa ngaphandle ziya eChina naseHong Kong. U-Tsai Ing-wen ukhethwe ngo-2016. Uthembisa ukuba uyazimelela ngakumbi eChina. Ufuna ukukhuthaza ama-bio-tech, amadivayisi axhunyiwe kwi-intanethi kunye nophando lwezokwelapha. ma shishini. (Umthombo: "I-Leader entsha yaseTaiwan ifa i-Mess," i-Bloomberg, ngoJanuwari 21, 2016.)
I-Turkey - isizwe samaSilamsi esiphumeleleyo. Ukuxhomekeke kunjalo kwiingxowa- mali ezithe ngqo . Unokufumana inzuzo kwindawo yayo, kunye nerhwebo kwiYurophu nakuMbindi Mpuma. Abasebenzi abaselula. I- lira yaseTurkey iwile ngamaphesenti angama-43 kwi-dollar yase-US ukususela ngo-2010. Oku kwenza iitaliti ezibiza ngexabiso elininzi kwiinkampani zendawo. I-matyala kawonkewonke yi-50% ye-GDP. Ingenisa ioli eninzi. Amanani e-oyile aphantsi anceda i- akhawunti yakhe yangoku . (Umthombo: "Uziva uhlaza," i -Economist , Matshi 21, 2015.)
Ngaba kungenzeka ukuba, Ukuba ...
I-Indiya - Inokwenzeka yokukhula okukhulu, ngokubonga kwimfundo kunye nabasebenzi abancinci, iyancitshiswa yi-capitalist crony kunye nokunyuswa kweentlalo zentlalo. Ukuba kuphela iNdiya yayiza kufumana isenzo sayo kunye!
I-Mexico - Ixhomekeka kakhulu kwii-export to United States. Ukukhula koqoqosho kuzuza iinxalenye ezincinci. Ubundlobongela beziyobisi kunye nenkohlakalo yamapolisa kunyanzela abantu abaninzi baseMexico ukuba bahambe, kunokuhlala kunye nokudala uluntu olungcono.
ENigeria - uMongameli omtsha unokusebenzisa ubuncwane beoli ukwenzela ukukhulisa ukukhula koqoqosho kubantu abanobuhlwempu. "I-Nollywood" ivelisa amafilimu angaphezulu kuneHollywood.
Philippines - Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko. Utywala, urhwaphilizo luvimbela ukuveliswa kwamashishini amatsha. Ulwabiwo-mali olungenayo okwaneleyo Ukuba uMongameli uAcino angakwazi ukuphatha kakuhle, abasebenzi abancinci kunye nemithombo yobutyebi bangakhuthaza uqoqosho.
I-Thailand - Ukungazinzi kwezopolitiko, ukuchitha imali eninzi. Amashishini ayesaba ukutyalomali. UMongameli omtsha unokuguqula izinto.
Iimpawu eziMnandi
I-Brazili - Ixhomekeke kakhulu kwiimveliso zengeniso karhulumente. Yakha imeko yentlalontle ayinako ukuyifumana. Imirhumo elingana no-38% ye-GDP, ephezulu kwihlabathi elikhulayo. Izibonelelo ezingekho phantsi kwemali, ukuchitha imali encinci kwimfundo, ezininzi izithintelo zorhwebo. Ukunyuka kwamanani okunyuka kwamaxabiso kukubangela ukuhla kwenene. IiNkampani zakha iitalente ebizwa ngamadola. Njengokuba kukho ukuwa kwangempela , eli tyala liba kubi kakhulu ukuhlawula. (Umthombo: "Uziva uhlaza.)
EHungary - Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi ephezulu, izinga lentengo ephakamileyo, irhafu ephakamileyo, amatyala aphezulu.
EMalaysia - Inkcitho enkulu karhulumente, ukuthembela kakhulu kwizinto eziphathekayo. Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi yabasebenzi abancinci.Ukutyalomali ngokuthe ngqo kubangelwa.
IRashiya - Ixhomekeke kakhulu kwi-oil income. U-Putin uye wawutyeshela imigaqo-siseko yezoqoqosho ekugxininiseni ekuphatheni amandla akhe. Abasebenzi basebegugile. Ayinayo intando yezopolitiko yokudala ikusasa lezoqoqosho oluzinzileyo.
UMzantsi Afrika - Ulwahlulo lwentlupheko luyekile, kodwa abamhlophe abamhlophe basoloko belawula ubuninzi bezobutyebi. Iinkampani zendawo zithatha ityala elininzi lamadola. Imali iye yanciphisa idoli yase-US, idala ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. (Umthombo: "Uziva uhlaza.")
I-Vietnam - Iinkokheli zezopolitiko aziqondi ngokwenene ezoqoqosho. Iimfuno zeziseko, inkokhelo enkulu kumashishini angafanelekanga, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. Abasebenzi abaqeqeshwe kakubi. ZaseMzantsi Vietnam zingabandakanywa.
Iimpahla
Ekubeni amazwe amaninzi athengayo athengiswa ngaphandle, uSharma ubeka isahluko kwizinto eziphathekayo. Ngokuyinene, amaxabiso aphezulu asandul 'ukukhutshwa ngegolide, ioli kunye nezinye izinto zendalo ziqhutywe ngabahwebi, kungekhona ngokubonelela kunye nokufunwa. Aba bathengisi bebodwa baqhutywe ngetyala elincinci, elincinci elenza ukuboleka lula kunye nokulondoloza inkunkuma yexesha.
I-Federal Reserve yenze i-bubble ye-assets ngokugcina ixabiso lentengo kangangokuba lide ixesha elide, kwaye ngokudala i-$ 4 trillion kwi-credit entsha ngeNkqubo ye- Easter ye-Quantitative . Oku kwakujoliswe ekudaleni ukukhula koqoqosho ngokuvumela ukuveliswa kwoshishino olutsha, kodwa iibhanki azizange zisebenzise i-credit ukuboleka. Kunoko, abaqapheli basebenzise ukuqhuba ixabiso lempahla.
Ngoku ukuba loo maxabiso ahla (kwaye abatyali-mali baye bajika kwi-market market), kwenzakalisa intuthuko kwezoqoqosho. Kuphela abo batyalile kumashishini abo asekhaya, izibonelelo kunye nabasebenzi baya kuqhuba kakuhle. Ukwehla kwamanani entengo kuya kunceda amazwe afana neIndiya, iTurkey kunye neYiputa, abangenisa ezi zinto zendalo.
Iunited States
Nangona le ncwadi iphathelele iimarike ezikhulayo, i-Sharma ihlola uqoqosho lwase-US. Amandla ayo kwi teknoloji, ngenxa yeSilicon Valley, ikhuthaza ukuvelisa nokukhula koqoqosho. Iinkampani zase-US zikhokeli kwi-software, iteknoloji yeselula, imidiya yoluntu kunye ne-intanethi. Le mpahla kunye neenkonzo zifunwa ukusuka kwidolophana encinci yaseAfrika ukuya kwi-megalopolise enkulu kwihlabathi.