Ukujonga indlela eyahlukileyo ngayo ukuxuba kweeShishini kunye neBonds ezenziweyo
Xa uqala ukutshala imali, kufuneka uqonde ukuba izitokhwe kunye nezibophelelo zidlala indima ezahlukileyo kwiipotifoliyo yakho ngaphaya kokuvelisa i-capital income, dividends , kunye nenzuzo yengeniso . Lezi zigaba ezimbini zeefa zeempahla zizinzuzo zabo kunye neengxaki zabo, iingenelo kunye nokungonakali. Kubalulekile ukuziqonda kunye nabo ukuze wenze izigqibo ezinolwazi malunga nento efanelekileyo wena nentsapho yakho.
Ukubonelela ngomzekeliso jikelele, ngeendlela ezimbalwa, njengobasebenzi abancinci ekuqaleni komsebenzi wokuba ngumsebenzi oneminyaka engama-30 + ngaphambi kokuba umhlalaphantsi okanye umhlala-phantsi omdala ongenakukwazi ukufumana nayiphi na ingozi enokuthabatha inzululwazi kwimali ebunjiweyo ebomini bexesha lonke yomsebenzi, kubakho budenge ukuba kunikwe i-100% esitokisini okanye iibhondi ezingama-100%. Ngelishwa, akuqhelekanga ukuba ndibone abatyala-mali abatsha, kunye nabo batyalile iminyaka kwiminyaka engama- 401 (k) okanye i- Roth IRA , ukuhamba ukusuka kwelinye elide ukuya kwelinye, rhoqo kwixesha elincinane.
Mhlawumbi isilingo siyaqondakala. Cinga ngeemarike zeenkunzi zeenkunzi ezivela kwinqanaba lomntu-mali ongenamava. Emva kweminyaka yokubona izitokisi zikhulayo, ixabiso leakhawunti likhula, kunye nokuhlawula imali yokuhlawula imali, kubonakala kunengqiqo ukuqhubeka nokwenza oko kusebenze kwangaphambili. Inyani le nto kukuba amaxesha afana nale aqhelekileyo xa kunobungozi kakhulu ukuthenga amasheya ngenxa yokuba ukulinganisa kuphakanyisiwe, kwiimeko ezinobungozi ngokukodwa ukuba i - earnings adjustment yield yields fall to a half, or lower, kwi-bond bond bond.
Ixabiso ngokuqinisekileyo libuyela kwimida yazo yokulinganisa - ayikwazi ukuphepha imbali yexesha elizeleyo - ixesha elide liqhubeka ngakumbi kwindlela echaseneyo. Ukulahlekelwa okukhulu kuqhutywe. Umtyalo-mali otshitshisiweyo ufunga izitokisi ukususela emva kokuba umjikelezo uphinda kwakhona, kamva.
Ngokuqhelekileyo, umtyalo-mali akayiqondi ukuba utyalo-mali olude kufuneka lulinganiswe, ubuncinane , kwixesha leminyaka emihlanu . Bajonga kwiimpahla zabo, iimali zenkcazo, iimali ezihlangeneyo , ii-ETF , okanye ezinye iimbono kunye emva kweveki ezimbalwa, iinyanga, okanye neminyaka, ngokukhawuleza banqume ukuba abakwenziyo kunye nokucinga ukuba bafanele benze. Baye balahla ezi zikhundla nantoni na eyenziwe ngoku kutshanje. Ingxaki iyingozi kakhulu kwinkqubo yokwakha ubutyebi ukuba i-fundual fund i-Morningstar ibonisa i-2% kuphela, i-3%, okanye i-4% ngamaxesha apho i-holdings yayo ikhule ngo-9%, i-10% kunye ne-11. %. Ukuziphatha komntu, ngamanye amazwi, uxanduva lwamanani amaninzi ahlawulwe ngabasomali-mali, mhlawumbi ukuya kwinqanaba le-system kubanzi begqithise imali kunye neerhafu zokucebisa imali . Ubuncinane ngeemali ufumana ukucwangciswa kwezemali ukulungiselela ukuhlawula ubomi bakho bemali kunye neerhafu zokuhlawula izibonelelo, ukukhusela kunye neenkqubo zokulwa nobuhlwempu. Ukulahlekelwa yimpembelelo yokuziphatha kuneempawu ezimbalwa zokuhlawulela. Uhluphekile nje ngokuba yizindlalifa zakho kunye nabaxhamli.
Kule nqaku, ndifuna ukujonga indlela izitokhwe kunye nezibophelelo ezinokubangela iziphumo ezingcono kunamasheya okanye amabhondi.
Andiyi kukuxelela, ngokuchanekileyo, ukuba kufuneka utyalomali kangakanani na kwii-asethi zee-asethi, nangona ndiza kuthetha ukuba ndiwela kwinkampu yexabiso lokutshala imali uBenjamin Graham, owayecinga ukuba umnini-mncinci, ongeyena utyalo-mali kufuneka ungagcinanga ngaphantsi kwama-25% kwaye ungabi ngaphezu kwama-75% kwinqanaba le-asethi, ukuguqula ngokusekelwe ekutshintsheni kwimiba ebalulekileyo xa izidingo zakho zihluke kunokuba zikhona okanye xa kuvela iziganeko ezilinganiselayo zokulinganisela njengoko kwenzayo izizukulwana ngezizukulwana. Umzekelo ogqityileyo weli hlabathi ngokwenene wawuya kuba nguJohn Bogle, umsunguli weVanguard, ukugqiba kwexesha le-dot-com ukuhlawula yonke into athenge i-25% okanye ubunjalo bebunikazi bakhe obufanayo kunye nokutshala imali leyo, endaweni yoko, amabhondi. Endaweni yoko, ndifuna ukukunikwa ngengcaciso ukuze ube nengcamango engcono yento ofuna ngayo, imibuzo ofuna ukuyibuza umcebisi wakho , kunye neepatheni zokunyaniseka kwezembali ezihlukeneyo zezitokhwe kunye nezibophelelo eziye zahlangabezana nazo.
Makhe siqale ekuqaleni: Uqwalaselo lweeSitokisi kunye neebhonki zihlukile
Kukulungele ukuqala ngeendlela ezisiseko. Ziziphi iimpahla kunye nezibophelelo? Bahluke njani?
- Isabelo sesitokisi sibonisa ubunini kwishishini. Ukushiya iimeko apho uhlengahlengiso lunokwenzeka khona , ukuba unayo inqwelo ye-sandwich uze uyichane zibe ziqwenga ezilishumi, ngasinye sazo sabelo sinelungelo lokunciphisa i-1/10 okanye ilahleko. Ukuba unayo zonke izabelo ezi-10, unayo i-100% yeshishini. Imarike yemasheya yintengiso yenkcitho yangempela-mali apho abakhoyo nabanakho abanokuzithengela ukuthenga ukulingana (ubunini) kuyo yonke into evela kwiinkampani ze-tshokolethi kubakhiqizi be-bleach, iikontraki ze-aerospace kwi-roasters, i-inshorensi phantsi kwabasunguli be-software, iibhanki kwiindawo zokutya, i-distilleries kwiinkampani zonwabo. Ukufumana ingcamango yeentlobo ezahlukeneyo zamashishini apho ungaba ngumnini ngokuthenga amasheya esitokisini, khangela le nkcazo yamacandelo namashishini kwi-S & P 500 . Kwixesha elingaphezu kwexesha elide, kukho, mhlawumbi, akukho mhlaba ongcono kwihlabathi kunokuba ubunini boshishino elinembuyekezo enkulu kwinkunzi .
- Ibhondi ibonisa umboleko owenziwe ngumthengi wombophelelo kumniki-mboleko. Izibophelelo zoMongami zikhutshwa zizizwe. Izibophelelo zikaMasipala zinikezelwa oomasipala. Iibhanki zoshishino zikhutshwa ngamashishini. Ubuninzi be-vanilla bonds, ngakumbi e-United States, kubandakanya ukuboleka inkampani inani elilingana nexabiso elijongene nobhonkco ngokwabo, emva koko ufumana inzala evela kumbopheli weekhontrakthi rhoqo emva kweenyanga ezintandathu ukugqithiswa kwebhondi, apho iinqununu kufuneka zibuyiselwe khona ngaphandle kokuba umkhupheli webhondi sele engabonakaliyo okanye ngandlela-thile ahluleki ukuhlonipha izibophelelo zalo, kwimeko apho inkundla yebhanki iya kubandakanyeka.
Kukho ukungaqondi okungaqhelekanga ukuba iibhondi zikhuselekileyo kunezikhefu kodwa oku akunjalo . Kunoko, kuchaneke ngakumbi ukuthetha ukuba izitokisi kunye nezibophelelo zijongene nobungozi obuhlukeneyo obungasongela amandla akho okuthenga ngeendlela ezahlukeneyo ukuba awuqapheli.
Amasheya ahlonishwayo. Ngabanini-mali abathengelayo, kwaye inzuzo ayinakuqinisekiswa, ukuhaha kunye noloyiko ngezinye iinkqubo kungadlulela inkqubo. Amashishini afanelekileyo aza kunikwa ngethuba ngexesha elifana ne-1973-1974, ukuthengiswa okungaphantsi kwezinto abaza kuwufumana kunoma yimuphi umthengi onengqiqo ozuze yonke inkampani kwaye ebanjelwe ubomi bakhe bonke. Ngexesha elifanayo, ufumana amaxesha apho kukho ishishini elinoyikekayo, elingenakunceda ukurhweba ngokulinganisela ngokucebileyo, ukuxhomekeka ngokupheleleyo kwinyani. Umzekelo omhle wokugqibela ngowama-1999 xa i-bubble ye-intanethi iboniswe ngokupheleleyo. Ukwenza kube nzima ngakumbi, kwanezo zoshishino ezimangalisayo eziye zenza izizukulwana zabantu abacebileyo, njenge-Hershey Inkampani, ziyakhathazeka ixesha elifana no-2005 ukuya ku-2009 xa isitokisi siphumelela ngokuthe ngcembe ama-55% exabiso lentengiso yayo nangona i-earnings ithola ngcono kwaye izabelo zanda; ukwehla ngenxa yesizathu esicacileyo njengoko injini yezoqoqosho eyona nto iphambili kwaye ikhula. Abanye abantu abaphelelanga ngokwabo, ngokwengqondo, okanye ngokwengqondo ukuxhobisa oku. Oku kulungile - akudingeki ukuba utyalomali kwiisitokthi ukufumana isityebi- kodwa kwenza umsebenzi ube nzima.
Iibhonksi zivuthiwe zincinci ngaphezu kwee-stocks, nangona iibhondi zingaba nokunyuka okukhulu kwexabiso njengoko kubonakaliswe ukutshatyalaliswa kwe-2007-2009 xa iibhanki zotyalo-mali zivakalisa ukutshatyalaliswa kwebhanki kwaye kufuneka zikhuphe imali nangona kunjalo, ukulahla ubuninzi beemali zokufumana imali kwimalike, ukuqhuba xabiso ehla. (Izinto zazibi kakhulu, omnye umtyalo-mali owaziwayo wathi i-sheet efanayo ye-bond sheet eyathunyelwa kuye phakathi kokuwa kwayo iqulethe imida emibili yeekhonkco ezifanayo, enye ivumela ngokuphindwe kabini enye. UNondyebo waseMelika waxhamla kwinqanaba labo abanomdla omncinci, oko kuthetha ukuba abatyalo-mali baqinisekisiwe ukuba balahlekelwa yimali kodwa bathenga iimbophelo, nokuba kunjalo, njengoluhlobo lwe-premium ye-inshorensi ngokuchithwa kwenkqubo. kwaye umniki-mboleko unokubuyisela inqununu xa kungafanelekile, ingozi enkulu ngokutyalomali kwiimbopheleleko kukuba bayabonisa isithembiso sokubuyiswa kwexesha elizayo kwiimali eziqingqiweyo, ezikhethiweyo. Ngamanye amagama, xa uthengisa ubuhlobo besikhathi eside, uhamba ixesha elide ngemali. Ngaphandle kokuba kukho uhlobo oluthile lokukhuselwa kwemali yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, njengokuba kukho i- TIPS kunye neChungechunge I-bonds yokulondoloza , unokunciphisa ukunciphisa amandla ekuthengeni nokuba ngaba ukongezwa kwakho kobuninzi. Iintlobo ezimbalwa zeebhondi zikhuselekile ekukhuseleni ukunyanzeliswa, njengesibophelelo se- EE sokugcina imali , esinokuhlawulelwa ngenxa yexabiso labo elibaliweyo, kubandakanywa nasiphi na isantya sohlengahlengiso kwangaphambili ongayenza, kungakhathaliseki ukuba iimeko zemarike.
Ezi zinokubonakala ngathi ziinkcukacha ezincinci kodwa zonke ukusuka eUnited States zashiya umgangatho wegolide - isigqibo esisisilumko esasinceda ukuphepha iintlungu ezininzi kunye nokukhathazeka ngokunika iBhanki Ephakathi ukukwazi ukulwa nokutyalwa kwemali ngokunyusa kwemali - iimbali ibonise ukuba iNkongolo ayikwazi ukunceda kodwa ichitha imali engaphezulu kwayo. Lo mgaqo-nkqubo wenyuka-mali uphumelela kwerhafu yangaphandle ngaphandle kwexabiso lentengo ye dollar nge dollar nganye ukuthenga ngaphantsi ngaphantsi kwamashumi eminyaka. Ndiyifumene loo nto, phantsi kweemeko ezikhoyo, izibophelelo zonyaka we-30-mali kufuneka ziqeshwe ngokuthi "izibophelelo zokuzibulala ngokwezimali" ngenxa yokulahlekelwa kwabo buncwane bexesha elizayo kubanini abazithengayo baze bababambe baze bafikelele ekukhuleni kodwa abantu baqhubeka behlutha kubo. Enyanisweni, kumntu ocebileyo okanye kwintsapho, ukuthenga uNondyebo weNyaka ka-30 kwi-akhawunti ehlawulwayo kwi-isivuno sayo sangoku 2.72% ngu-asinine. Umngcipheko ukwedlula kakhulu ukuthenga izitokhwe ezinokuthi zingaphakanyiswe okanye zinciphise kwixabiso eliyi-50% okanye ngaphezulu kwexesha leminyaka emininzi xa uqala ukuchaza "umngcipheko" njengexesha elide lokulahleka kwamandla okuthenga.
Ukubukeka Kwindlela Ukuhlanganiswa Kweentengo kunye neeBond eziQinisekile kwiiNgxelo zePortfolio kwixesha leMakethe
Kuthatyathwa kunye, nokuba kunjalo, iinzuzo zamasheya ziyakunciphisa ukungaphumeleli kweebhondi kunye neenzuzo zeebhondi ziyakunciphisa ukungaphumeleli kwee-stocks. Ngokudibanisa ezimbini kwiipotfoliyo enye, kunokwenzeka ukuba unako ukuzonwabisa ngokukhawuleza okukhulu, ukukhuseleka okuqinisekileyo ngokufika okungalindelekanga kolunye uCalulo oluKhulu (amasheya alahlekelwe ngama-90% exabiso lawo ngexesha elinye ngamava ahlukeneyo kumashishini athile ngokutya kunye isitokisi sesiphuzo esenza ngokungafaniyo nempahla yeoli; nokuba iqumrhu elinyanisekileyo lokubambisana liyakwenza ukuba kube lula ukubuyisela), uxolo olukhulu lwengqondo, kunye nezinga eliphezulu lemali engenayo. Xa i- Federal Reserve ingenzi ukuvavanya okungakaze kwenziwe ngaphambili nangomgaqo-mali kunye neerhafu zenzalo zibuyela kumanqanaba aqhelekileyo , kusenokwenzeka ukuba uya kuba ngumvunyi ophezulu kwi-portfoliyo ji kelele, nto leyo ithetha inzuzo engaphezulu.
Kulo manqaku, kuluhlu lokuqonda ukuba izitokhwe kunye nezibophelelo zenziwa njani kwiiphothifoliyo ezahlukahlukeneyo ngenye imimandla engqongileyo yokutyalo-mali. Ngenxa yoko, ndiya kuguqulwa kwinqanaba legolide lokugcinwa kwerekhodi, i- Ibbottson & Associates Classic Yearbook , eyapapashwa yi-Morningstar.
Okokuqala, makhe sihlole kwiimbuyekezo zonyaka ngonyaka omnye. Ukujonga amaxesha aphakathi kowe-1926 no-1910, njani ukuxubana okungafaniyo kwamasheya amakhulu kunye neengxowa -rhu lumente zangexesha elide zenza phantsi kwezona zimeko zibalaseleyo kwaye zibi kakhulu?
- Iphothifoliyo yee-100% ezitokisini zenze ibuyiselo eliphezulu kakhulu ngo-1933 xa likhule ngo-53.99%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-1931 xa ilahlekelwe yi-43.34% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngelixesha lokulinganisa, ubuyisele bubuhle kwiminyaka engama-61 yoloo mihla kwaye ihlaseleyo ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, i-portfoliyo yonke into eyayibuyiselwa kakhulu kwiiposfoliyo zempahla / i-bond mix e-52. Ireyithithi ye-average annual compounding rate kumaxesha onke ayi-11.88% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-90% ze-stocks kunye ne-10% bonds zavelisa ukubuya kwayo ngo-1933 xa likhule ngo-49.03%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-1931 xa ilahlekelwe ngu-39.73% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngelixesha lokulinganisa, lo mxube othile weempahla kunye nezibophelelo zazincomeka kwiminyaka engama-62 yale minyaka kwaye ingadlulanga ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, akuzange kube yipolfoliyo yokubuya ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxube esitokisini kunye nezibophelelo. Ireyithithi ye-average annual compounding rate kumaxesha onke ayi-11.25% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-70% ezitokisini kunye neentlawulo ezingama-30% zavelisa ukubuya kwayo ngo-1933 xa likhule ngo-38.68%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-1931 xa ilahlekelwe yi-32.31% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngelixesha lokulinganisa, lo mxube othile weempahla kunye nezibophelelo zazincomeka kwiminyaka engama-64 yale minyaka kwaye ingadluli ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, akuzange kube yipolfoliyo yokubuya ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxube esitokisini kunye nezibophelelo. I-arithmetic annual average compounding rate kumaxesha onke ayi-10.01% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-50% ze-stocks kunye ne-50% bonds zavelisa ukubuya kwayo ngo-1995 xa likhule ngo-34.71%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-1931 xa ilahlekelwe yi-24.70% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngexesha lokulinganisa, lo mxube othile weempahla kunye nezibophelelo zazintle kwiminyaka engama-66 yale minyaka kwaye ihlaseleyo ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, akuzange kube yipolfoliyo yokubuya ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxube esitokisini kunye nezibophelelo. Ireyithithi ye-average annual compounding rate kuwo onke amaxesha yayingu-8.79% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-30% ezitokisini kunye nezibophelelo ezingama-70% zavelisa ukubuyela kwayo ephezulu ngo-1982 xa ikhula ngama-34.72%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-1931 xa ilahlekelwe yi-16.95% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngelixesha lokulinganisa, lo mdibaniso othile weempahla kunye neebhonkco zazincomeka kwiminyaka engama-68 yale minyaka kwaye ingadlulanga ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, akuzange kube yipolfoliyo yokubuya ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxube esitokisini kunye nezibophelelo. Ireyithithi ye-average annual compounding rate kuwo onke amaxesha yayingu-7.61% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-stock% ezi-10% kunye nama-bond% angama-90 avelise ukubuyela kwayo ngo-1982 xa ikhula ngo-38,48%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-2009 xa ilahlekelwe yi-11.23% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngexesha lokulinganisa, lo mxube othile weempahla kunye nezibophelelo zazintle kwiminyaka engama-66 yale minyaka kwaye ihlaseleyo ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, akuzange kube yipolfoliyo yokubuya ephezulu xa kuthelekiswa namanye amaxube esitokisini kunye nezibophelelo. Ireyithi ye-arithmetic year average compounding rate kuwo onke amaxesha yayingu-6.45% ngonyaka.
- Iphothifoliyo yee-100% ezibophelelweyo zavelisa ukubuyela kwayo ephezulu ngo-1982 xa ikhula ngo-40.36%. Yenza ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kakhulu ngo-2009 xa ilahlekelwe yi-14.90% yexabiso layo. Kule minyaka engama-85 ngelixesha lokulinganisa, ubuyisela bubuhle kwiminyaka engama-63 yale minyaka kwaye ihlaseleyo ixesha lonke. Ngethuba le minyaka engama-85, iphothifoliyo ye-bond-bond yayiyiyona ephezulu yokuphuma kuzo zonke iipotfoliyo ze-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezingama-33. Ireyithithi ye-average annual compounding rate kuwo onke amaxesha yayingu-5.88% ngonyaka.
Njengoko unako ukubonwa kule nkcukacha ebanzi yedatha, ukuxuba kwezitokhwe kunye neentambo kwiipotifoliyo kwakha uhlobo lokuqhubeka. Kwinqanaba elincinci lempahla, unemivuzo ephakamileyo kakhulu kodwa ukufikelela kwezi zinto kufuna i-iron, izithintelo zensimbi kunye neqoqo elungileyo lemali. Kwi-33 kwiminyaka engama-85, wagqiba unyaka ohluphekayo kunokuba wawukho ekuqaleni kwaloo nyaka. Ngomzekelo ogqithiseleyo, ubone 43.34% yexabiso lakho elixabisekileyo likhuphuke ngomsi. Ukubeka loo nto ingqiqo, oku kufana nokubukela i-$ 500,000 yeepotifoliyo nge-$ 216,700 ukuya kwii-283,300 zamawaka kwiinyanga ezili-12. Uninzi lwabantu alukwazi ukujongana nalo hlobo lwesimo nangona ubunini bezobulungisa bubonakalisa ukuba luncedo kakhulu kwaye, ngokubanzi ngokubanzi, kwixesha elide, olukhuselekileyo, iindlela zokwakha ubutyebi . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ubona ukunyaniseka kwexabiso lentengo yeebhondi kuvelisa ukubuyiswa kwezinto ezincinci xa kuthelekiswa nama-stocks. Zonke izinto ebomini zineendleko zokurhweba kunye nokuhlanganiswa kwemali yakho.
Ibala elimnandi libonakala likhona kwindawo ethile phakathi. Iphothifoliyo yezibhonkco zesigamu kunye nemigangatho yesigxina ayenzanga kuphela ukuvelisa ukubuyiswa okuhle , kwakunokungqinelana kwi-66 kwiminyaka engama-85. Oko kuthetha ukuba uneminyaka engama-19 emva koko owawuhlwempuzeka ekupheleni konyaka kunokuba uqale nini, ubuncinane njengoko ulinganiselwe ngokwemigqaliselo. Lona luhlu lohluke kakhulu kunamaphepha-mpahla alinganayo-wonke aneminyaka engama-33 phantsi kwexesha elifanayo lexesha. Ukuba uxolo lweengqondo ukusuka ekuzinzileyo kwipotifoliyo ngokulinganayo phakathi kwamasheya kunye nezibophezelo kukuvumela ukuba uhlale kwiklasi, kunokubangela ukuba intsapho yakho iphele ngemali engaphezulu kunokuba ubuya kuzama ukunamathela ngakumbi- ekwayikisayo isabelo sempahla esicacileyo. Lo umehluko phakathi kwezemali zendabuko, ejongene nokulungelelanisa kweemali, kunye nemali yokuziphatha, ejongene neziphumo ezigqwesileyo ezibonelelwe ngeemeko zomntu kunye nezinye izinto eziguqukayo.
Makhe sijonge kwiiPholifoli ezifanayo zeeShishini kunye neeBond ezingaphezulu kwamaxesha angama-20 e-Rolling Periods
Imbuyekezo yonyaka inomdla kodwa ngokunjalo, ixesha elide lokuqhawula. Masihambe inyathelo elide ngaphezu kwedatha yonyaka esiye siyihlolisayo kwaye sijonge indlela ezi zikhundla ezifanayo ezenziwe ngayo ngokusekelwe kwimilinganiselo yokulinganisa iminyaka engamashumi amabini. Okokuthi, utyalo-mali ngo-1926 luya kulinganiswa ekugqityweni kwalo ngo-1946, utyalo-mali ngo-1927 luya kulinganiswa ekugqibeleni ngo-1947, njalo njalo. Nceda uqaphele ukuba ezi zikhundla azibandakanyi naziphi na iindlela zobugcisa abatyalo-mali bavame ukukhuthazwa ukuba basebenzise, njengodola wendleko yokulinganisela , ezinokukunceda ukukhawuleza ixesha elihle nelibi, ukubuyela kwangokuhlwa. Umzekelo omhle, oza kuwubona ngomzuzwana, ngowama-1929-1948, ngeliphi ixesha i-portfoliyo yonke ikhule ngo-3.11% kuphela. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba utyalo-mali ngeli xesha, kwaye kungekhona nje isamba semali ekuqaleni, ukubuyela kwakho kuya kuphakama ngokugqithiseleyo njengoko uthatha ubunini kwamanye amabhizinisi amaninzi kumaxabiso abonakala kuphela kanye kuphela kwizizukulwana ezimbalwa. Enyanisweni, akuzange kuthathe ixesha elide ukubuyela kwi-Depression Great, kodwa ukungaqondi kakuhle malunga neendlela ezinokubalwa ngazo manani ngokuhlala zidibanisa abatshali-mali abanamava.
- Iphothifoliyo yee-100% ezitokisini zavelisa ukubuyela kwayo kwiminyaka emashumi amabini anesibini ekubuyiseleni phakathi ko-1980 no-1999 xa ihlanganiswe ngama-17.88% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo okuphantsi kakhulu phakathi kowe-1929 no-1948 xa ihlanganiswe ngu-3.11% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic year average rate of compounding for all times was 11.30%.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye neebhondi zahlula i-90% zeempahla kunye ne-10% ezibophelelweyo zavelisa ukubuya kwayo iminyaka emashumi amabini anesibini ekubuyeni kokubuya phakathi ko-1980 no-1999 xa ihlanganiswe ngo-17.28% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo okuphantsi kwe-1929 no-1948 xa ihlanganiswe ngama-3.58% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic rate average year of compounding for every time was 10.84%.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye neebhonksi ezahlula i-70% ze-stocks kunye ne-30% kunye nezibophelelo ze-30% zavelisa ukubuya kwayo iminyaka engamashumi amabini ezelwe ukubuyela phakathi kuka-1979 no-1998 xa ihlanganiswe ngama-16.04% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo okuphantsi kwe-1929 no-1948 xa ihlanganiswe ngu-4.27% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic year average rate of compounding for all times was 9.83%.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula ama-50% kwiimpahla kunye ne-50% ezibophelelweyo zavelisa ukubuyisa kwayo iminyaka engamashumi amabini ezelwe ukubuyela phakathi kuka-1979 no-1998 xa ihlanganiswe ngama-14.75% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kwe-1929 no-1948 xa ihlanganiswe ngu-4.60% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic year average rate of compounding for all times was 8.71%.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye neebhondi ezahlula ama-30% kunye neentlawulo ezingama-70% zavelisa ukubuyela kwayo kwiminyaka emashumi amabini anesibini ephindayo phakathi kuka-1979 no-1998 xa ihlanganiswe ngo-13.38% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kwe-1955 no-1974 xa ihlanganiswe ngu-3.62% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic rate average year of compounding for all times was 7.47%.
- Iphothifoliyo yamasheya kunye nezibophelelwano zahlula i-10% ezitokisini kunye neentsimbi ezingama-90% ezivelise ukubuyiswa kwayo kweminyaka engama-20 ephakamileyo phakathi kwe-1982 no-2001 xa ihlanganiswe ngo-12.53% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyela kwayo ephantsi kwe-1950 no-1969 xa ihlanganiswe yi-1.98% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic year average rate of compounding for all times was 6.12%.
- Iphothifoliyo yee-100% ezibophelelweyo zavelisa ukubuya kwayo kweminyaka engamashumi amabini ephezulu ukubuyela phakathi kuka-1982 no-2001 xa ihlanganiswe ngo-12.09% ngonyaka. Yafumana ukubuyiswa kwayo okuphantsi kakhulu phakathi kowe-1950 no-1969 xa ihlanganiswe ngu-0.69% ngonyaka. I-arithmetic year average rate of compounding for all times was 5.41%.
Kwakhona, nangomnyaka weshumi elinamashumi amabini, isigqibo malunga nokuxuba okufanelekileyo kwamasheya kunye nezibophelelo kwipotifoliyo yakho ibandakanye ukurhweba phakathi kokuzinzileyo (njengoko kulinganiswa ngokungazenziyo) kunye nokubuya kwangomso. Apho ufuna ukuzimisela kuloo mgca wonikezelo olunokwenzeka, ucinga ukuba amava ezayo afana namava adlulileyo, kuxhomekeka kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo ezivela kwixesha lakho elipheleleyo ukuzinza kwengqondo yakho.
Indlela ulwabiwo lweeAsset phakathi kweeShishini kunye neBond eziza kuguqulwa kwixesha elidlulileyo Ngaba umtyalo-mali akazange ahlaziywe okanye wakhe
Enye yeetekethi zeenkcukacha ezithakazelisayo xa uhlola indlela iiphothifoliyo ezenziwe ngayo ngexesha elisekelwe kwisilinganiselo esithile sokwabiwa kweefa phakathi kwamasheya kunye nezibophelelo kukujonga ubukhulu bokugqibela. Kule fayile yedatha, kwakhona, ndigqiba ngoDisemba ka-2010 kuba iyona nto efanelekileyo kakhulu, idatha ephezulu ye-shelf etholakalayo kum ngeli xesha kunye nemarike yenkomo phakathi kuka-2011 no-2016 iya kusebenza kuphela ukwenza iirejista eziphezulu kunye nesitokisi enkulu kwinani. Okokuthi, izixhobo zesitokhwe ziza kuba zikhulile ukuba zibe yipesenti ephakamileyo yeeposfoliyo kunokuba ndiza kukubonisa ukuba isiphumo esisisiseko asiyi kutshintsha.
Kwipolfoliyo eyakhiwe ngo-1926 ukuba ibanjwe ngaphandle kokubalinganiswa, yintoni ipesenteji yeempahla eziphelayo eza kugqiba kwiimali ngenxa yemeko yamasheya; ukuba bamele ubunikazi kumashishini atshabalalayo, njengeklasi, athambe ukwandisa ixesha? Ndiyavuya ukuba ubuze!
- Iphothifoliyo eyaqala ngokuxuba ama-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezilinganiselwa kuma-90% ukuya kwangaphambili kunye ne-10% ukuya ekugqibeleni yayiza kuphelela ngama-99.6% kunye ne-0.4%.
- Iphothifoliyo eyaqala ngokuxuba ama-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezilinganiselwa kuma-70% ukuya kwixesha langaphambili kunye ne-30% ukuya ekugqibeleni yayiza kugqiba ngamasheya angama-98.5% kunye nezibhondi ze-1.5%.
- Iphothifoliyo eyaqala ngokuxuba ama-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezilinganiselwa kuma-50% ukuya kwixesha langaphambili kunye ne-50% ekugqibeleni yayiza kuphelisa nge-96.7% kunye ne-3.3%.
- Iphothifoliyo eyaqala ngokuxuba ama-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezilinganiselwa kuma-30% ukuya kwangaphambili kunye no-70% ukuya ekugqibeleni kuya kugqiba nge-92.5% kunye ne-7.5%.
- Iphothifoliyo eyaqala ngokuxuba ama-stocks kunye nezibophelelo ezi-10% ukuya kwixesha langaphambili kunye ne-90% ukuya ekugqibeleni yayizakuphela kunye ne-76.3% kunye ne-23.7%.
Yintoni eyona yinto engakholekiyo kukuba i-stock component kulezi zikhundla zee-stocks kunye nezibophezelo ziza kugxininiswa kakhulu kwiqela "labakhulu", ngenxa yokungabi nako kwexesha elingcono. Abathathi-mali abanamava abahlala behluleka ukuqonda ukuba kubaluleke kangakanani ubudlelwane beemathematika beli qhinga kukufumana ubutyebi buninzi. Okubalulekileyo, endleleni, ipesenti ethile yokubambisa iya kuphawulwa. Kwiimeko ezininzi, ezi ziza kwenza iziphumo ezintle, njenge-Eastman Kodak ezenzelwe abanikazi bayo bexesha elide nangona emva kokuba intengo yesitokisi iya kwi-zero, into yokuba abatsha-mali abatsha abaqondi kakuhle ngokwemvo yokubuya ngokupheleleyo . Ngakolunye uhlangothi, iifemu ezimbalwa - amaxesha amaninzi amafemu ongenakukwazi ukuxela kwangaphambili ixesha elide - liza kudlulela phambili kulindeleke, ziya kushaya yonke into emanzini, ikhupha ukubuyela kwepotfolio.
Omnye umzekelo odumileyo waloo mkhumbi we-Wall Street, i-Voya Corporate Leaders Trust, eyaziwa ngaphambili njenge-ING Corporate Leaders Trust. Yaqala ngo-1935. Umphathi weepotfoliyo onoxanduva lokuyibeka ngokukhethekileyo uqokelele iqoqo le- chip chip ye-blue chip , zonke ezo zihlawula igalelo . Phakathi kweminyaka engama-81 phakathi kokubunjwa kwalo ngo-1935 kunye nelo xesha, liye lalawulwa ngokungathandabuzekiyo kwinqanaba leenkcukacha zibonakalisa ukuba zingabonakali ngokungahambi kakuhle (oku kungenxa yokuba imali yenkcazo, kunye ne-S & uncwadi oluchasene naloo nto. Ichohlile zombini i- Dow Jones Industrial Average kunye ne-S & P 500 ngaphezu kwelo xesha. Ngokubambisana, ukufumana izinto, ukuhlawulelwa, ukuhlukana, kunye nokunye, le ngxowa-mali iphelile ngepottoliyo egxininisiweyo yee-stocks ezingama-22. I-14,90% ye-asethi isetyenzisiwe kwi-Union Pacific, i-giant giant, i-11.35% inotyalwe eBerkshire Hathaway , inkampani ebambe ibhiliyadeire iWarren Buffett , i-10.94% inotyalwe kwi-Exxon Mobil, inxalenye ye-Standard Oil, I-7.30% ityala imali ePrair, i-gesi yoshishino, ukunikezela kunye neyezinto zokusebenza, u-5.92% utyalomali eKhevron, enye inxalenye ye-Standard Oil ye-Standard Oil, eyi-5.68% inikwe imali kwi-Procter naseGamble, i-giant, kwaye u-5.52% utyalomali ku-Honeywell, i-titan yezoshishino. Ezinye izikhundla ziquka i-AT & T, iDow Chemical, i-DuPont, i-Comcast, i-General Electric, kunye nomthengisi weenyawo. Iirhafu ezichasiweyo zikhulu kakhulu , zisebenza njengoluhlobo lwexabiso lokuthengwa kwasekuqaleni kunye nabanini-zimali .
Yiyiphi Ingongoma Yonke Le Datha kwiNdima yeeShishini kunye neBond i-Portfolio?
Ngaphandle kokuthakazelisa kulabo abathanda ukutshala imali, kukho izifundo ezibalulekileyo zokuthatha imali ezivela kule ngxoxo malunga nokusebenza kwembali yeengxube ezihlukeneyo zamasheya kunye nezibophelelo kwiphothifoliyo. Ukukunceda, zilapha ezimbalwa nje:
- Iibhanki kunye neebhondi ziziphatha ngendlela eyahlukileyo phantsi kweemeko ezahlukeneyo, zenza ukuba luncedo xa zigcinwe kwipotifoliyo kunye. Kungakulingela ukuya kwelinye elidlulileyo okanye lelinye kodwa le nto ayiluncedo.
- Ukuba iimbali ezidlulileyo ziphinda ziphinda zikhuseleke, zithe zakhuseleka ukuba zithi indawo ephezulu yebhanki kulwabiwo lwabiwo-mali, luzinzile ngakumbi, njengoko lilinganiselwe ngokwemigqaliselo, i-portfolio yakho iya kuba. Nangona kunjalo, oku kuza kufikeleleka kwiindleko zezinga eliphantsi lokuhlanganiswa. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-economics yokuziphatha ibonisa abantu bathambekele ekutheni banamathele kwisicwangciso sabo sexesha elide kangcono xa ukunyanzeliswa komzimba kungaphantsi, oku kuthetha ukuba kunokubangela ukubuyiswa kwehlabathi langempela ngenxa yempembelelo yokunciphisa abantu; umnqweno ongekho rhoqo "wokwenza into" xa imali eninzi ibonakala iyanyamalala ngexesha lokuwa kweemarike.
- Ngaphantsi kwemimandla yentsingiselo eqhelekileyo, iibhondi zongeza iqela elingaphakamileyo kakhulu lemali engenayo kwipotifoliyo kunamasheya, ukuvelisa ukuhamba kwemali enokusetyenziswa, ukubuyiswa, ukufumana izipho okanye ukugcinwa. Okwangoku sisesigabeni esingekho sonke isiqhelo kwaye, ngezinga elikhulu, singatshatanga. Akunakwenzeka ukuba izinga lentlalo-nzala lenzalo liqhubekayo kwiminyaka elishumi ezayo.
- Iimasheya, ngokubanzi, zivelisa kakhulu kunezibhonkco ezide zisexesha elide, bhetele ama-stock's stocks egcinwe kwipotfoliyo iya kuba yiphesenti enkulu ye-asethi eyabelwe ngaphandle kokuba umnikazi wephothifoliyo ukhetha ukulinganisela (oko kukuthi, thengisa ezinye iimbopheleleko ukwenzela ukwandisa ubungakanani babanye ukuba babuyele kwibala elijoliswe kulo, elifunwayo).
- Iminyaka embi ingaba nzima. Yinto enye ukuyijonga kumaphepha kodwa njengomntu oye waphila ngeempembelelo ezidumileyo zeencwadi, ukuhamba kuzo kuluhlu oluhluke ngokupheleleyo, olufana nokumahluko phakathi kokufunda ngeqabunga encwadini kwaye ngokuqinisekileyo uhlala ngenye ikuwe. Elinye ixesha elingabonakali nje ngeyona nkcazelo ecacileyo kwi-data esiye sithetha ngayo ngoku, ngenxa yokuba yinto enokufaniswa ngayo kwaye inzima kakhulu inhlekelele yonyaka oneminyaka engama-600 eyayiyinkxalabo enkulu manani, ngu-1973-1974. Kwakuyingozi kwi-equity investors kwiphepha, kodwa abatyali-mali bexesha elide batyebile kakhulu ngokuthenga amasheya kwixabiso lokuthengisa. Musa ukunyamekela oko uvakalelwa kukuba, kwaye njani kunokukwenza ukuba wenze izinto eziyinqatha, ukubona u-50% wobutyebi bakho buphelile kwi-blink yeso. Umnye umzekeliso we-1987. Ndakhe ndawunika umzekelo wokulahleka kwamaphepha okulahleka kwiphepha xa ndithelekisa iziphumo zangexesha elide lePepsiCo kunye neCoca-Cola Inkampani kwiblogi yam. Ukuba awukwazi ukuphatha into yokuba izinto ezinjengalezi ziza kwenzeka kuwe njengomnini-sabelo, uza kuba sesikhatsini esingaqhelekanga. Akukho ndlela yokuyiphepha kwaye nabani na onokuxelela ukuba kunokwenzeka ukwenza oko kukungcola, ukuxoka okanye ukuzama ukukopela ngandlela-thile.
- Iibhonkxa zihlala zilungelelaniso kwisibheno-ngamanye amaxesha zixhaswe ngokugqithiseleyo, ngoku ngoku ukuba iUnited States isuke ihambe ngokwemigangatho yegolide kwaye abatyali-mali baye babonisa ixesha kunye nexesha ngokubhekiselele ukuba abafunanga intsingiselo eyaneleyo yenzalo yokuhlawula irhafu kunye ukunyuka kwamaxabiso - kodwa into yokuba bakhonza njengolu hlobo lwe-insulatory Great Depression lusetyenziso oluthile lonke. Ngokuhlala emdlalweni osesikweni xa amaxesha apho ama-stocks athengisa kwiqhezu lexabiso labo eliyinyaniso, ungakuphepha ukuhlawula ubungqina bakho bunini ngexesha elibi kakhulu. Enyanisweni, njenge-counterintuitive njengoko itywina, ucebile kakhulu, kunokwenzeka ukuba ufanele ube nemali eninzi kunye ne-bond ekhutshiweyo njengepesenti yepottoliyo yakho yonke. Ukuze ufunde kabanzi malunga nesi sihloko, sifunde Ingakanani i-Cash endimele ndiyigcine kwi-Portfolio yam ? , apho ndixoxa ngezinye iinkcukacha.
Kwinqaku yokugqibela, yinto ebaluleke kakhulu xa ukhetha ukuxuba kwakho kwezitokhwe kunye nezibophelelo ubeka ingqalelo kwingqwalasela yokuphathwa kwentlawulo eyaziwa ngokuba yi-aseset placement . Iimpahla ezifanayo kunye nezibophelelo, ngokulinganayo okulinganayo, kwiibhanki ezifanayo zerhafu, kunokukhokelela kwiziphumo ezixabisekileyo zeemveliso ezixhomekeke kwizakhiwo apho ezo zibambiso zigcinwe khona. Ngokomzekelo, kwindlu efumana inzuzo engenayo ephezulu, inzala yebhanti ityala irhafu ngokuphindwe kabini izinga njengezabelo zemali. Kuya kuba nengqiqo ukubeka izibophelelo kunye neentengo eziphezulu ezivelisa isivuno kwiimali zokuhlala zentela ezifana ne- SIMPLE IRA ngelixa ziphethe iimpahla ezingabhataleli isahlulelo kwi- akhawunti yokurhweba ehlawuliswayo, ubuncinane kunokwenzeka kwaye zicebise phantsi kweemeko ezikhethekileyo ezijongene nazo ebomini bakho. Ngokufanayo, awuyi kubeka into efana neebhanki zikamasipala ezingenaspala kwiRoth IRA .