Qonda iNgxaki yesiGrike samaTyala eMigqithini emihlanu
Ukususela ngo-2008, iinkokeli ze-EU ziye zazama ukuvumelana ngesisombululo. Ngelo xesha, uqoqosho lwamaGrisi lwama-25 ekhulwini lubonga ukuchitha imali kunye nokwanda kweerhafu ezifunwa ngababoleki. Ukulinganiswa kwetyala leGrisi ukuya kwi-GDP kwanda kuma-179 ekhulwini.
Ukungavumelani yimiba yamazwe alahlekelwa ngaphezulu.
IGrisi ifuna i-EU ixolele enye ityala. Ukususela ngoFebruwari 2015, abaphathi abahlukahlukeneyo baseYurophu kunye nabarhwebi abazimeleyo babolekisile iGrisi imali engama-294.7 billion ye-euro. IGrisi ibuyisele i-euro engama-41.6 yezigidi.
I-EU iya kuxolela inkohlakalo ukuba iGrisi iyakwenza amanyathelo amanyathelo . Ezi nguquko ziya kuqinisa ulawulo lwawo karhulumente kunye nezakhiwo zemali. IJamani kunye nababhanki bayo baye bakhokelela le ndlela kuba sele iboleke kakhulu.
Inkathazo yabangela ingxaki ye- eurozone kwaye yabangela ukwesaba kweengxaki zemali kwihlabathi . Ikhuphe umbuzo malunga nokusebenza kwe- eurozone ngokwayo. Yayilumkisa into eyenzekayo kwamanye amalungu aseUdam. Konke oku kuvela kwilizwe elingenayo imveliso engaphezulu kunommandla wase-Connecticut wase-Connecticut.
Inkcazo yeGreece ichazwe
Ngonyaka ka- 2009 , iGrisi yamemezela ukulahleka kwayo kohlahlo lwabiwo-mali kuya kuba yi-12,9 ekhulwini yemveliso yakhe yasekhaya . Ezi zihlandlo ezingaphezu kwesine umda we-EU weepesenti ezingama-3.
I-arhente yokulinganisa i-Fitch, i-Moody's kunye ne- Standard & Poor yehlise i-credit rating ye-Greece. Oko kwabatshitshisa abatyalo-mali. Kwakhona kwagxotha ixabiso lemali-mboleko yangomso. IGrisi yayingenalo ithuba lokufumana imali yokubuyisela ityala layo.
Ngo- 2010 , iGrisi yazisa isicwangciso sokunciphisa ukusilela kwayo kwi-3 ekhulwini ye-GDP kwiminyaka emibini.
IGrisi yazama ukuqinisekisa ababolekisi be-EU ukuba babejongene nezimali. Kwiinyanga ezine nje kamva, iGrisi esikhundleni salokho wayilumkisa ukuba kunokungagqibekanga.
I-EU kunye ne- International Monetary Fund banike ii-euro ezigidi ezingama-240 kwiimali eziphuthumayo ngokubuyisela amanyathelo okuxhamla. I-EU ayinalo ukhetho kodwa ukuma emva kwelungu layo ngokuxhasa inkxaso-mali. Ngaphandle koko, kuya kuhlangabezana nemiphumo yeGrisi ngokushiya i-euro okanye i-defaulting.
Amanyathelo okulungelelanisa afuna iGrisi ukuba yandise irhafu ye-VAT kunye nezinga lokuhlawula irhafu . Kumele uvale iintlawulo zerhafu kunye nokunciphisa ukuphepha. Kufuneka kuphuculwe izikhuthazo zokuthatha umhlalaphantsi kwangaphambili. Kufuneka inyuse iminikelo yabasebenzi kwinkqubo yempesheni. Utshintsho oluthile luyimfihlo yamashishini amaninzi aseGrisi, kuquka ukuthunyelwa kombane. Oku kunciphisa amandla emiphakathi yoluntu kunye neemanyano.
Iikholi ze-EU kunye nee-arhente zokulinganisa iinqununu zazifuna ukuqinisekisa ukuba iGrisi ayiyi kusebenzisa ityala elitsha ukuhlawula elidala. IJamani, iPoland, iRiphabhlikhi yaseCzech, iPortugal, iIreland neSpeyin sele isetyenzisile amanyathelo okunyusa ukuqinisa ubutyebi babo. Ekubeni bahlawula imali yokubambisa imali, babefuna iGrisi ukuba ilandele imizekelo yabo. Amanye amazwe ase-EU afana neSlovakia kunye neLithuania abafuni ukucela abo bahlawuli berhafu ukuba babambe emapokothini abo ukuze bavumele iGrisi ukuba ihambe.
La mazwe asandul 'ukunyamezela amanyathelo abo okukhusela i-bankruptcy kungekho ncedo kwi-EU.
Imali-mboleko yanika iGrisi imali eyaneleyo yokuhlawula umdla kwi-ityala elikhoyo kwaye igcine iibhanki. Amanyathelo amanyathelo athatyathelweyo aphucisa umnotho waseGrisi. Oku kunciphisa irhafu yengeniso efunekayo yokuhlawula ityala. Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kwanda kuma-25 ekhulwini kunye neengxabano zaqhutyelwa ezitalatweni. Inkqubo yezopolitiko yayingumngcipheko njengoko abavoti baphendukela kunoma ubani othembise indlela engenakubuhlungu.
Ngo- 2011 , iSibonelelo seMali seYurophu saseYurophu songeze i-euro-bhiliyoni ezingama-190 ukuya ekukhuselweni. Nangona igama liguquka, loo mali nayo ivela kumazwe e-EU.
Ngo- 2012 , ububanzi beGrits-to-GDP ubukhulu buye banda kuma-175 ekhulwini, phantse kathathu umda we-EU wama-60 ekhulwini. Bondholders ekugqibeleni bavumelana nokunquma iinqwelo, batshintshiselana neebhiliyoni ezingama-77 ezibhonkthini zetyala elilingene neepesenti ezingama-75 ngaphantsi.
NgoJuni 27, 2015 , uNdunankulu waseGrisi u-Alexis Tsipris wamemezela ukuvakaliswa kwamanqanaba amanyathelo. Wathembisa ukuba i-"ayi" ivoti yayiza kunika iGrisi ithuba lokuxoxisana ne-30 yeepesenti zentlawulo kunye ne-EU. NgoJuni 30, 2015, iGrisi yayiphumelele ukuhlawula i-euro eyi-1,55 yeebhiliyoni. Amacala omabini abiza ukulibaziseka, kungekhona i-default default. Kwiintsuku ezimbini kamva, i-IMF yaxwayisa ukuba iGrisi idinga i-euro ezigidi ezingama-60 kwi-intsha. Yatshele ababolekisi ukuba bathathe i-writing downs kwii-euro ezigidi ezingama-300 zama-euro.
NgoJulayi 6, abavoti baseGrike bathi "cha" kwireferendum. Ukungazinzi kwadala ukuqhuba kwiibhanki. IGrisi yayinomonakalo omkhulu kwezoqoqosho kwiiveki ezimbini ezijikeleze ivoti. Amabhanki avaliwe kwaye avimbela ukurhoxiswa kwe-ATM kwi-euro ezingama-60 ngosuku. Yatshitshisa ishishini lokhenketho ekuphakameni kwexesha, kunye nezivakashi ezili-14 ezivakatyelayo elizweni. I-Central Central Bank yaseYurophu yavuma ukubuyisela iibhanki zaseGrikan nge-euro ezili-10 kwi-euro ezigidi ezingama-25, zivumela ukuba ziphinde zivule.
Amabhanki afake umyinge we-420 weveki nganye kwiiholide. Oku kuthintela iifomiti ukuba zingabonakali iakhawunti zazo kwaye zenze ngcono ingxaki. Kwakunceda ukunciphisa ukukhutshwa kweerhafu. Abantu baphendukela kumakhadi okukhwabanisa kunye namatyala ngokuthenga. Ngenxa yoko, ingeniso yefesti yenyuka nge-1 billion ye-euro ngonyaka. (Imithombo: i-BBC, i-New York Times, iWSJ, i-Financial Times)
Ngo-Julayi 15, ipalamente yaseGrikri yadlulisa amanyathelo okuxhatshazwa ngaphandle kwe-referendum. Ngaphandle koko, akuyi kufumana mboleko ye-euro-bhiliyoni ye-euro kwi-EU. I-ECB iyavumelana ne-IMF ukuba kufuneka inciphise ityala leGrisi. Oko kwakuthetha ukuba babeza kwandisa imiqathango, ngaloo ndlela banciphise inani lexabiso langoku. IGrisi iyakuthi ihlawulwe ixabiso elifanayo, liyakwazi ukulihlawula ixesha elide.
Ngomhla wama-20 ku-Julayi, iGrisi yenza inkokhelo yayo kwi-ECB, ngenxa yemboleko ye-euro eyi-7 ye-euro kwi-fund ye-EU engxamisekileyo. UBukumkani baseUnited Kingdom bafuna ukuba amanye amalungu e-EU aqiniseke igalelo layo kwi-bailout.
NgoSeptemba 20, iTsipras kunye neqela laseSyriza laphumelela ukhetho lwe-snap. Kwabanika igunya lokuqhubeka nokunyusa uxanduva lokuxoxwa kwetyala ngokuxoxisana ne-EU. Kodwa kwafuneka baqhubeke kunye nezinguqu ezingathandekiyo ezithembisa i-EU.
NgoNovemba, iibhanki ezine zaseGrisi ezinkulu zakhupha ngasese i-14.4 zama-euro ezigidi njengoko kufuneka yi-ECB. Iimali zibolekisile iimboleko ezimbi kwaye zibuyisele iibhanki ukuba zisebenze ngokugcwele. Phantse isiqingatha seebhanki zemali-mboleko ezazisencwadini zabo zazisetyeni zokungagqibekanga. Abatyala-mali beBhanki banikele ngenani lokutshintshela ama-euro ayizigidi eziyi-86 kwimali-mboleko yokubambisa.
Ngo-Matshi 2016, iBhanki yaseGrisi yaxela ukuba uqoqosho luya kubuya ekukhuleni yihlobo. Kuphela kwenyuka i-0.2 ekhulwini ngo-2015. Kodwa iibhanki zaseGrisi zazingelahlekelwa yimali. Babenqikaza ukubiza ngetyala elibi, bekholelwa ukuba abo babolekayo baya kubuyiselwa emva kokuba uqoqosho luphuculwe. Okubambene nemali ababenokuyifumana kwizinto ezintsha.
Ngomhla ka-Juni 17, i-European Union Stability Mechanism yaseYurophu yanikezela i-euro eyi-7,5 billion ukuya eGrisi. Kwacwangciswa ukusebenzisa imali ukuhlawula inzala kwityala layo. IGrisi yaqhubeka kunye namanyathelo okuqhathaniswa. Idlulile umthetho ukuphucula umhlala-phantsi kunye neenkqubo zerhafu yengeniso. Kuza kubhacaza iinkampani ezininzi, kwaye zithengise iimali-mboleko ezingafaniyo.
NgoMeyi 2017 , uTsipras wavuma ukusika ipensheni kunye nokwandisa isiseko seerhafu. Ukubuyisela, i-EU imboleke enye i-euro eziyizigidi eziyi-86. Oko kwavumela iGrisi ukuba ihlawule ityala layo elikhoyo. UTsipras wayenethemba lokuba itoni yakhe yokudibanisa yayiza kumnceda anciphise i-euro engama-293.2 yeebhiliyoni ekuhlawuleni amatyala. Kodwa urhulumente waseJamani akayi kunceda kakhulu phambi kokhetho lukaMongameli lukaSeptemba.
NgoJulayi, iGrisi yakwazi ukukhupha izibophelelo kwakhona. Uceba ukutshintsha amanqaku akhishwe ekuhlaziyweni kunye namanqaku amatsha njengento yokufuduka ekutheni bathembele ngabathengi.
NgoJanuwari 15, 2018, iPalamente yaseGrike yavumelana nemilinganiselo emitsha. Kufuneka ufanele ukufumana umrhumo olandelayo weentlawulo zokubambisa. NgoJanuwari 22, abaphathiswa bezezimali base-euro kulindeleke ukuba bavume i-euro eziyi-6 ukuya kwi-7 yezigidigidi zama-euro. Amanyathelo amasha enza kube nzima ukuba imibutho yamanyano ibhale. Ilizwe lihlala likhubazekile ngokubetha. Inceda amabhanki ekunciphiseni amatyala amatyala, avula iimarike zamandla kunye neekhemisti, kwaye aphinde ahlaziye inzuzo yabantwana.
Inkqubo yokuxilonga ihlelwe ukuphela ngo-Agasti, ngo-2018. Isilinganiso sokungabikho kwemisebenzi seGrisi sehlele kuma-20 ekhulwini ukusuka kuma-25 ekhulwini ngo-2013. Uqoqosho lwayo lwalukhula ngama-2.5 ekhulwini, xa kuthelekiswa nokuphambana kweepesenti ezili-10 ngo-2011. Kulindeleke ukuba ubuyisele Iipesenti ezingama-75 zetyala layo ngo-2060. Kuze kube ngoko, abathengi baseYurophu baya kuhlola ukunyamekela ukunyaniseka kwamanyathelo.
Iingxaki zeNkqubela yeGrisi
IGrisi kunye ne-EU bafumana njani lo myalezo kwindawo yokuqala? Imbewu yahlwayelwa emva ngo-2001 xa iGrisi yamkela i- euro njengemali yayo. IGrisi yayiyilungu le-EU ukususela ngo-1981 kodwa ayikwazanga ukungena kwi-eurozone. Isaphulelo sayo sebhajethi sasiphezulu kakhulu kwii-Eurosone ze-Maastricht Criteria.
Zonke zahamba kakuhle kwiminyaka emibini yokuqala. Njengamanye amazwe aseYurophu, iGrisi yazuza kwi-euro. Yanciphisa iirhafu zenzalo kwaye yangenisa imali- mali kunye nemali mboleko.
Ngo-2004, iGrisi yamemezela ukuba yayiqamba amanga ukufumana iMigqaliselo yeMaastricht. I-EU ayizange ibeke izigwebo. Ngoba kutheni? Kwakukho izizathu ezintathu.
IFransi neJamani nayo yayichitha ngaphaya komda welo xesha. Bokuba ngabazenzisi ukugweba iGrisi ade bazibeke amanyathelo abo kuqala.
Kwakungekho ukungaqiniseki malunga nantoni na izigwebo ezazisetyenziswa. Babenokugxotha iGrisi, kodwa oko kuya kubaphazamisa kwaye kubuthathaka i-euro.
I-EU ifuna ukuqinisa amandla e-euro kwimarike yemali yamazwe ngamazwe. I-euro eyomeleleyo iya kuqinisekisa amanye amazwe ase-EU, njenge-UK, iDenmark, neSweden, ukuba athathe i-euro. (Imithombo: "iGrisi ikhohlise," iBloomberg, ngoMeyi 26, 2011. "IGrisi ijoyina i-Eurozone," i-BBC, ngoJanuwari 1, 2001. "IGrisi ukujoyina i-Euro," ngoJuni 1, 2000.)
Ngenxa yoko, iitalente zesiGrike zaqhubeka ziphakama de kubekho ingxaki eqhutywe ngo-2009.
Yintoni eyenzekayo Ukuba iGrisi ishiya i-Eurozone
Ngaphandle kwesivumelwano, iGrisi yayiya kulahlela i-euro iphinde ibuyisele idrakema. Oko kuya kuphelisa iindlela ezinokuthi zithandwe. Urhulumente waseGrike angaqesha abasebenzi abatsha, ukunciphisa ama-25 ekhulwini kwizinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi nokukhuthaza ukukhula koqoqosho. Iya kuguqula i-euro-based debt to drachmas, ukuprinta imali engaphezulu kunye nokunciphisa izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-euro. Oku kuya kunciphisa ityala layo, kunciphise iindleko zokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kunye nokutsala abahanjethi kwiindawo ezihamba ngeendleko eziphantsi.
Ekuqaleni, oko kuya kubonakala kulungele iGrisi. Kodwa abanini bamazwe angaphandle baseTranskretti babeza kuba neelahleko ezinzima njengoko i-drakma yanyuka. Oku kuya kuhlawula ixabiso lokubuyisela kwimali yabo. Ezinye iibhanki ziya kuphawulwa. Uninzi lwetyala luphethwe nguorhulumente baseYurophu, abo abakhokheli berhafu banyawo lwabo.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-drachma kunokubangela ukuba i- hyperinflation , njengendleko yokungeniswa kwe- skyrocket. IGrisi ingenisa iipesenti ezingama-40 zokutya zayo kunye namayeza kunye nama-80 ekhulwini lamandla ayo. Iinkampani ezininzi azizange zithumele ezi zinto kwilizwe elingenakho ukuhlawula iindleko zalo. Izwe alikwazanga ukutsalisa utsalo-mali olutsha olwangaphandle kwiimeko ezinjalo. Amazwe kuphela awakhankanya ukuba aya kuboleka eGrisi yiRashiya neChina. Ekuhambeni kwexesha, iGrisi yayiza kufumana kwakhona apho ikhona ngoku: imithwalo ityala ayikwazi ukuyibuyisela.
Amanani omdla kwamanye amazwe anetyala angavuka. I-arhente zokulinganisa ziya kuba nexhala lokuba ziya kushiya i-euro kwakhona. Ixabiso le-euro ngokwayo lingancipha njengabahwebi beemali basebenzise ingxaki njengesizathu sokubetha.
Yintoni eyenzekayo Ukuba iGrisi ingenzi
I-default yeGrike engapheliyo iya kuba nefuthe ngokukhawuleza. Okokuqala, iibhanki zaseGrisi ziza kuphawulwa ngaphandle kwemali mboleko kwiBhanki Ephakathi YaseYurophu . Ukulahleka kungasongela i-solvency yamanye amabhanki aseYurophu, ngakumbi eJamani naseFransi. Bona, kunye nabanye abatyali-mali bamashishini abucala, babambe i-34.1 yezigidigidi zama-euro kwisikwere saseGrike.
Oorhulumente base-Eurozone abanama-euro angama-52.9. Oku kungaphezulu kwee-131 zezigidigidi ze-euro eziphethwe yi-EFSF, ngokugqithiseleyo noorhulumente base-eurozone. Amanye amazwe, afana neJamani, aziyi kuphazamiseka yi-bailout. Nangona iJamani inomdla kakhulu, itekisi encinci ye-GDP yayo. Uninzi lwetyala alifiki ngenxa ye-2020 okanye kamva. Amazwe amancinci abhekana nesimo esibi ngakumbi. Inxalenye ye-Finland ye-matyala yi-10 ekhulwini yebhajethi yayo yonyaka. (Umthombo: "iFinland iLawula i-Stake neGrisi," iBreitbart, ngoJulayi 7, 2015.)
I-ECB ibambe i-euro eyi-26.9 yezigidi zama-Greek. Ukuba iGrisi ingaguquki, ayiyi kubeka ikusasa le-ECB engozini. Kungenxa yokuba akunakwenzeka ukuba amanye amazwe anetyala azimisele ukugqiba.
Ngenxa yezi zizathu, i-default default yeGrime ayayi kuba yimbi ngaphezu kweengxaki zetyala le-LTCM ka-1998. Yilapho i- Russia engazange iqhubekele ingqungquthela yokutshatyalaliswa kwamanye amazwe athengayo . I-IMF ivimbele ukungaphumeleli ezininzi ngokubonelela ngenkunzi kuze kubekho uqoqosho lwazo luphucule. I-IMF inayo i-euro eyi-21.1 yeeyure zesiGrike, okwaneleyo ukuyikhupha. (Umthombo: "I-IMF ihamba ngaphandle kweNgqungquthela ixoxa neGrisi," iWall Street Journal, ngo-Juni 12, 2015.)
Ulwahlulo luya kuba ngumlinganiselo weziphene kunye nokuba zikhoyo kwiimarike eziphuhlisiwe. Kuya kuthintela umthombo wemali ye-IMF. I-United States ayinakukwazi ukunceda. Ngelixa umxhasi omkhulu we-IMF mali, ngoku ixhomekeke. Kwakungekho nto inqwenelekayo yezopolitiko ekuxhaseni kweMelika kwetyala leYurophu.
Kutheni i-EU ibandakanyeke ngeMilinganiselo yokuLungisa
Kwixesha elide, amanyathelo aya kuphucula inzuzo yaseGrisi inzuzo kwimarike yehlabathi. Amanyathelo amanyathelo afunekayo eGrisi ukuba aphucule indlela alawula ngayo iimali zikawonkewonke. Kwakudingeka ukuba yenze imodareyithingi yeemali kunye nokunika ingxelo. Iyanciphisa izithintelo zorhwebo, ukunyuka kwamazwe angaphandle.
Okubaluleke kakhulu, kwakufuneka iGrisi iguqule inkqubo yempesheni yayo. Ngaphambi, ithola i-17.5 ekhulwini ye-GDP, ephakamileyo kunezinye i-EU. Iipesenti zomphakathi zi-9 zeepesenti zemali, xa kuthelekiswa neepesenti ezingama-3 kwezinye i intlanga. Amanyathelo okulungelelaniswa afunekayo iGrisi ukuba anciphise ipensenti nge-1 ekhulwini ye-GDP. Kwakhona kwakufuneka umrhumo ophezulu wempesheni ngabasebenzi kwaye unciphise umhlalaphantsi kwangaphambili.
Isiqingatha semindeni yamaGrike sincike kwiholo lomvuzo, kwaye omnye wamahlanu amaGrike aneminyaka engama-65 okanye ngaphezulu. Ukungaphangeli kolutsha ku-50 ekhulwini. Abasebenzi abaxhamli malunga nokuhlawula iminikelo ukuze abadala bakwazi ukufumana ipensheni ephezulu. (Umthombo: "I-Futures engapheliyo: Iiprojethi ze-Greek Pensions Dilemma ichazwe," Guardian, Juni 15, 2015.)