Kutheni Isikhokelo Sobunzima Asisoloko Isikhokelo Esilungileyo Sempilo Yezoqoqosho
Ixabiso lemali yintengo ephakamileyo yeempahla kunye neenkonzo ngexesha.
Impembelelo ithintela ubomi bakho ngokunciphisa amandla akho okuthenga. Yimilinganiselo yosizi kuba ikhulisa indleko zokuphila . Emva kwexesha, kunciphisa umgangatho wakho wokuphila . Kungenxa yoko uMongameli uReeagan wathi, "Imithwalo yemingcipheko inobundlobongela njengobuthakathaka, njengokwesabisa njengomphangi oxhobileyo, kunye nokufa njengendoda."
Ngokwezigaba zomjikelezo wezoshishino, ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kubonisa ukutyunjwa . Iimpawu zengeniso yemveliso yokuba isigaba sokwandisa sakha ibhola. Inkcazo ebandezelekayo kufuneka ibonakale xa uqoqosho lusebenza ngokukhawuleza okanye ngokukhawuleza.
Inkcazo yezosizi kwi-Economics ephilileyo
Uqoqosho olusempilweni luza kuvelisa inkcazo ebandezelekayo phakathi kwama-6-7 ekhulwini. Izinga elifanelekileyo lokukhula li-2-3 ekhulwini. Ukufezekisa oko, abaqeshi kufuneka bafumane abasebenzi abalungileyo. Kufuneka babone izinga lokusweleka kwemisebenzi ukusuka kwi-4-5 ekhulwini. Xa izinga lingaphantsi kwelo, iinkampani azikwazi ukufumana abasebenzi abaneleyo okwandisa ukuveliswa.
Ngenxa yoko, ukukhula kuya kuphuza.
Uqoqosho oluphilileyo ludinga ukunyuka kwamaxabiso. I- Federal Reserve ijolise izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-2 ekhulwini kunyaka-nyaka. I-Fed isebenzisa isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso esusa amaxabiso kunye namanani okutya . Lezo xabiso ziyancipha kakhulu, ngenxa yokuhweba kwansuku zonke ngempahla yabathengi.
Isalathisi esibuhlungu phakathi kwama-6-7 ekhulwini sibonisa uqoqosho lwe-Goldilocks, ngamanqanaba omgangatho wokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunye nokungasebenzi.
Inkxalabo yezosizi umlando ngomnyaka
U-Economy u-Arthur Okun wadala uluhlu lwentlungu kwi-1970. Wayefuna ukuchaza impembelelo ehlanganisiweyo yokungaqeshwa kwemisebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso okwenzekayo ngelo xesha. UOnn wabuye wadala uMthetho ka-Okun. Kuthetha ukuba kuzo zonke ipesenti zepesenti yokungena kwemisebenzi, umkhiqizo wesizwe ongokoqobo uphuma ngamaphesenti amathathu. Lichaza uqoqosho phakathi kweMfazwe Yehlabathi II no-1960.
Inkcazo yezobubi idlulile kuma-20 ekhulwini ngexesha loKuPhukisa okukhulu ngenxa yokuba izinga lokungabikho kwemisebenzi laliphezulu. Ngomnyaka we-1944, isicatshulwa esibuhlungu sagqitha ama-20 ekhulwini ngenxa yokuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwaphezulu. Cishe ibe ngama-20 ekhulwini ngo-1979 no-1980 ngenxa ye- stagflation .
Ukususela ngo-1981, isalathisi asizange idlule i-15 ekhulwini. Kungenxa yokuba i-Fed iye yaba kakuhle kakhulu ekulawuleni ukunyuka kwamaxabiso . Amagosa akhethiweyo aphumeza umgaqo-nkqubo wezemali ophantsi ukugcina ukungasebenzi phantsi kolawulo. Ngelishwa, baye badala iingcipheko ezinkulu zebhajethi ukwenza njalo. Ukulahlekelwa kweyona mkhulu kunokuba ngumongameli kuye kwaba ngowama-1980.
| Unyaka | Index Index | Ukungasebenzi | I xabiso |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.6% |
| 1930 | 2.3% | 8.7% | -6.4% |
| 1931 | 6.6% | 15.9% | -9.3% |
| 1932 | 13.3% | 23.6% | -10.3% |
| 1933 | 25.7% | 24.9% | 0.8% |
| 1934 | 23.2% | 21.7% | 1.5% |
| 1935 | 23.1% | 20.1% | 3.0% |
| 1936 | 18.3% | 16.9% | 1.4% |
| 1937 | 17.2% | 14.3% | 2.9% |
| 1938 | 16.2% | 19.0% | -2.8% |
| 1939 | 17.2% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| 1940 | 15.3% | 14.6% | 0.7% |
| 1941 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 9.9% |
| 1942 | 13.7% | 4.7% | 9.0% |
| 1943 | 4.9% | 1.9% | 3.0% |
| 1944 | 3.5% | 1.2% | 2.3% |
| 1945 | 4.1% | 1.9% | 2.2% |
| 1946 | 22.0% | 3.9% | 18.1% |
| 1947 | 12.7% | 3.9% | 8.8% |
| 1948 | 7.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| 1949 | 4.5% | 6.6% | -2.1% |
| - 1950 | 10.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% |
| 1951 | 9.1% | 3.1% | 6.0% |
| 1952 | 3.5% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| 1953 | 5.2% | 4.5% | 0.7% |
| 1954 | 4.3% | 5.0% | -0.7% |
| 1955 | 4.6% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| 1956 | 7.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% |
| 1957 | 8.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 1958 | 8.0% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| 1959 | 7.0% | 5.3% | 1.7% |
| 1960 | 8.0% | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| 1961 | 6.7% | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| 1962 | 6.8% | 5.5% | 1.3% |
| 1963 | 7.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
| 1964 | 6.0% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| 1965 | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| 1966 | 7.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% |
| 1967 | 6.8% | 3.8% | 3.0% |
| 1968 | 8.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% |
| 1969 | 9.7% | 3.5% | 6.2% |
| 1970 | 11.7% | 6.1% | 5.6% |
| 1971 | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.3% |
| 1972 | 8.6% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| 1973 | 13.6% | 4.9% | 8.7% |
| 1974 | 19.5% | 7.2% | 12.3% |
| 1975 | 15.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% |
| 1976 | 12.7% | 7.8% | 4.9% |
| 1977 | 13.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% |
| 1978 | 15.0% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
| 1979 | 19.3% | 6.0% | 13.3% |
| 1980 | 19.7% | 7.2% | 12.5% |
| 1981 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 8.9% |
| 1982 | 14.6% | 10.8% | 3.8% |
| 1983 | 12.1% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
| 1984 | 11.2% | 7.3% | 3.9% |
| 1985 | 10.8% | 7.0% | 3.8% |
| 1986 | 7.7% | 6.6% | 1.1% |
| 1987 | 10.1% | 5.7% | 4.4% |
| 1988 | 9.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% |
| 1989 | 10.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% |
| 1990 | 12.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
| 1991 | 10.4% | 7.3% | 3.1% |
| 1992 | 10.3% | 7.4% | 2.9% |
| 1993 | 9.2% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| 1994 | 8.2% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| 1995 | 8.1% | 5.6% | 2.5% |
| 1996 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 1997 | 6.4% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| 1998 | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 1999 | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| 2000 | 7.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% |
| 2001 | 7.3% | 5.7% | 1.6% |
| 2002 | 8.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% |
| 2003 | 7.6% | 5.7% | 1.9% |
| 2004 | 8.7% | 5.4% | 3.3% |
| 2005 | 8.3% | 4.9% | 3.4% |
| 2006 | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
| 2007 | 9.1% | 5.0% | 4.1% |
| 2008 | 7.4% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 2009 | 12.6% | 9.9% | 2.7% |
| 2010 | 10.8% | 9.3% | 1.5% |
| 2011 | 11.5% | 8.5% | 3.0% |
| 2012 | 9.6% | 7.9% | 1.7% |
| 2013 | 8.2% | 6.7% | 1.5% |
| 2014 | 6.4% | 5.6% | 0.8% |
| 2015 | 5.7% | 5.0% | 0.7% |
| 2016 | 6.8% | 4.7% | 2.1% |
| 2017 | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
Qaphela: Zonke iifomati zifana noDisemba ngaloo nyaka. Umlinganiselo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngumnyaka weNyaka weeNtengo zabathengi ngoDisemba. Idatha ivela kwiNkcazo yeMali yexabiso lentengo kunye neNqanaba lokuNyaka kweNgqesho ngonyaka .
Inkcazo yezobuhlungu nguMongameli
UMongameli uHoover wayenomsebenzi ogqithiseleyo ngokubhekiselele kwinkcazo ebandezelekileyo. UMongameli uRoosevelt wayenomsebenzi omhle. Bobabini baxhatshazwa yiNkulu yokuPhukisa. Abaongameli beDemokhrasi benza ngcono ekunciphiseni ukungabikho kwemisebenzi, ngoxa abalawuli beRiphabhliki bagxininisa ngakumbi ngokubethelwa kwexabiso lentengo.
UHerbert Hoover (ngo-1929-1933) Inkcazo yezobuhlungu iphakama ukusuka kwi-3.8% ukuya kwi-13.35 ngenxa yokulahleka kweemarike ze- 1929, ukuphunyezwa kweentlawulo ze- Smoot-Hawley kunye neNkunkuma yaseDust Bowl . I-Hoover ayizange incede izinto ngokunyusa irhafu.
UFranklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945) Inkcazo yezosizi yawa ngama-25.7% ukuya kuma-3.5 ekhulwini.
I-FDR entsha Deal , ukuphela kweDust Bowl, kunye nokuqala kweMfazwe Yehlabathi II iphelile ukuxinezeleka. Ngomnyaka we-1944, isivumelwano saseBretton Woods sisayinwe. Kwathatha indawo yegolide yegolide kunye neDola laseMelika. mpe mbelelo kwixabiso lentengo
UHarry Truman (1945-1953). Inkcazo yezobuhlungu yaqala nge-4.1 ekhulwini, iphakama ukuya kuma-22 ekhulwini emva kokuphela kweMfazwe yehlabathi yesiXhosa. UTruman wancinca ukuya kuma-4.5 eepesenti kunye noMthetho wezeNgqesho kunye noMthetho wokuSebenza. Ngokuthumela uncedo kwiYurophu, iSicwangciso seMarshall senza isidingo sempahla yase-US. Ngowe-1950, iMfazwe yaseKorea yenza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukuphakamisa inkcazo yezobuhlungu ukuya kuma-10.2 ekhulwini. Ekugqibeleni kwekota yeTruman, inkcazo yezobuhlungu yawela kwiipesenti ezingama-3.5.
UDwight Eisenhower (1953-1962). Ukunyuka kwemali emva kokuphela kweMfazwe yaseKorea kwathumela inkcazo ebandezelekileyo ukuya kuma-5.2 ekhulwini ngexesha lokuqala lo-Eisenhower. Kwaphakama ukuya kuma-8.1 ekhulwini xa kuthe Loo mgangatho ophezulu wentlungu wamnceda uJohn F. Kennedy ukuba anqobe i-vice-president wecala lakhe, uRichard Nixon.
UJohn F. Kennedy (1961-1963). UKennedy wagqiba ukunyuka kwemali, kodwa ukungaqeshwa kwabasebenzi kwahlala kuphakamileyo ngelixesha elabulawa ngalo ngo-1963.
ULyndon B. Johnson (1963-1969). UJohsonson unciphise isalathisi ukuya kuma-5.9 ekhulwini ngo-1965 ngokuchitha imali kwi-Great Society kunye neMfazwe yaseVietnam. Kodwa iphakama ukuya kuma-8.1 ekhulwini ekupheleni konyaka wakhe wokugqibela e-ofisi.
URichard Nixon (1969-1974). Isalathisi senyuka saba ngama-11,7 ekhulwini ngasekupheleni kwe-1970. I-Nixon yenze uMthetho we-Employment urgence kunye nokulawulwa kwamanani omvuzo ukunciphisa ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kunye nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Esikhundleni salokho, yenze i- stagflation ngokukhawuleza ukukhula. Ixabiso lemali laphakama njengoko i-Federal Reserve iphakanyisiwe iphakanyise amazinga omyinge wokulawula ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ke iyancipha ukuba ikhulise ukukhula. Oko kwadibanisa amabhizinisi, ahlala ephakamileyo intengo. Ngowe-1973, inkcazo yezobuhlungu yayiphumele kuma-13,6 ekhulwini. I-Nixon yagqiba umgangatho wegolide , okwenza ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kube nzima nakakhulu njengoko inani leli dola liye lahla. Wagqiba iMfazwe yaseVietnam, kodwa wasula phantsi ngenxa yophando lwe-Watergate.
UGerald Ford (1974-1977). Isalathisi senyuka saba ngama-19.5 ekhulwini ngexesha lokuqala konyaka kaFeoringi ngokubonga ngokugqithisa. Isalathisi sawela kuma-12.7 ekhulwini ngo-1976 emva kokuphela kwemali.
UJimmy Carter (1977-1981). Isalathisi senyuka saba ngama-19.7 ekhulwini ngo-1980. I-Fed yaphakamisa amazinga omdla ekupheleni kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngokuthe rhoqo. Yadala ukukhula kwemali.
URonald Reagan (1981-1988). Ngowe-1982, uReagan wasayina uMthetho weMisebenzi kunye noMthetho weGarn-St.Germain ukunciphisa imimiselo yokulondoloza nokuboleka imali. Wandisa imali yezempi. Ngomnyaka we-1986, wacutha intela. Ukwandiswa kwanciphisa isalathisi esibuhlungu ukuya kuma-7.7 ekhulwini. Ngowe-1987, uMsombuluko omnyama ukwandisa i-index ukuya kuma-10.1 ekhulwini.
UGeorge HW Bush (1988-1993). Inkcenkcesha ye-S & L ithumele isalathisi esibuhlungu ukuya kuma-12,4 ekhulwini ngo-1990. U-Bush wasungula iStrate Storm, ezisa isalathisi ukuya kuma-10.3 ekhulwini.
UBill Clinton (1993-2001). I-NAFTA ikhulise ukukhula, uClinton wasayina noMthetho oHloniphekileyo woHlahlo lwabiwo , uMthetho weSikolo wokuSebenza , kunye nokulungiswa kwezenhlalakahle. Zonke ezi zizenzo zandisa ukukhula koqoqosho, ukuthumela inkcazo yeentlungu ukuya kuma-6.0 ekhulwini ngo-1998. Ixabiso lemveliso laqala ukunyuka, ukwandisa i-index ukuya kuma-7.3 ekhulwini ekupheleni konyaka wokugqibela kaClinton e-ofisi.
UGeorge W. Bush (2001-2009). Unyaka ngaphambi kokuba uB Bush athathe isikhundla, i- NASDAQ iqhube iirekhodi eziphezulu. Xa ibhola libhubha, iBhangi ilizuze ihlabathi. Waphendula ngetyala lokuhlawula irhafu . Waphendula ekuhlaselweni kwe - 9/11 ngeMfazwe esebhubeni . Ukuhlaselwa kweyona nto yonakalise ukunyuka kwemali, awayebhekiselele kwi-2003 ye- JGTRRA yentlawulo kunye ne-2005 Bankruptcy Act . Kodwa iSiphepho uKatrina sanciphisa ukukhula. Ngonyaka ka-2008, ingxaki yezemali yawa. Kodwa isalathisi sahlala kuma-7.6 ekhulwini ekupheleni konyaka wokugqibela ka-Bush e-ofisi ngenxa yokuba ukungaqeshwa kwakungazange kuqale ukunyuka.
UBarack Obama (2009-2017). Inkcazo ebandezelekileyo iqhube ukufikelela kuma-12,6 ekhulwini ekupheleni konyaka ka-2009, nangona i- ARRA kunye nokongezwa kweengeniso zengqesho . Uqoqosho luye lwaphulukisa ngokukhawuleza, ngokokuba ngo-2015 isalathisi sehlile kuma-5.7 ekhulwini. Nangona manani anamandla, abavoti baphonsa ngaphandle iqela elimiselweyo ngo- 2016 uhlanga lomongameli .
Inkcazo yezobuNtu ayiyiyo rhoqo imilinganiselo echanekileyo yezeMpilo
Inkcazo ebandezelekayo ayikho isibonakaliso esihle sempilo yezoqoqosho ngenxa yokungabikho kwemisebenzi kuyisilathisi sokungena . Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kuya kufutshane nesicatshulwa saphezulu nangemva kokudlula kwemali.
Ngethuba leminyaka yokuqala yokuqala ye-Depression, isalathisi sasiphakathi kwama-3.8-6.6 ekhulwini. Uqoqosho luvunyelwene nge-8.5 ekhulwini kunye ne-6.4 ekhulwini. Kodwa isalathisi asizange ibonise ukuba nangona ukungaqeshwa bekuyi-15,8 ekhulwini ngo-1931. Amaxabiso awela njengorhwebo lwehlabathi .
Ngokufanayo, isalathisi sahlala ngaphezu kweepesenti ezili-10 ukuya ku-1942, iminyaka emva kokuphela koxinzelelo. Ukungabikho kwemisebenzi kwahlala phezulu ngelixa amaxabiso aqala ukunyuka ekuphenduleni ixesha lokulwa kwemfazwe. Kodwa uqoqosho lwalukhula, lukhula ngamaxabiso aphindwe kabini.
Imbali ye-recessions ibonisa ukuba inkcazo yeentlungu ihlale iphakamileyo emva kokunciphisa imali emininzi iphelile. Ziquka ukuhanjiswa kwe-1945, 1949, 1957, ngo-1990-1991, ngo- 2001 kunye neengxaki zemali ka - 2008 . Isalathisi sahlala kwiidijithi eziphindwe kabini ngokugqithiselwa kwee-1970, 1973-1975, kunye no-1980-1981. Yayiqhutywa yintlobo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ebizwa ngokuba yi-galloping inflation
| Unyaka | Index Index | Ukukhula kweGDP | Ukubuyisela |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1929 | 3.8% | N / A | Ukuxinezeleka |
| 1930 | 2.3% | -8.5% | |
| 1931 | 6.6% | -6.4% | |
| 1932 | 13.3% | -12.9% | |
| 1933 | 25.7% | -1.3% | |
| 1934 | 23.2% | 10.8% | |
| 1935 | 23.1% | 8.9% | |
| 1936 | 18.3% | 12.9% | |
| 1937 | 17.2% | 5.1% | |
| 1938 | 16.2% | -3.3% | |
| 1939 | 17.2% | 8.0% | Ukuxinezeleka |
| 1940 | 15.3% | 8.8% | |
| 1941 | 19.8% | 17.7% | |
| 1942 | 13.7% | 18.9% | |
| 1943 | 4.9% | 17.0% | |
| 1944 | 3.5% | 8.0% | |
| 1945 | 4.1% | -1.0% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1946 | 22.0% | -11.6% | |
| 1947 | 12.7% | -1.1% | |
| 1948 | 7.0% | 4.1% | |
| 1949 | 4.5% | -0.5% | Ukubuyisela |
| - 1950 | 10.2% | 8.7% | |
| 1951 | 9.1% | 8.1% | |
| 1952 | 3.5% | 4.1% | |
| 1953 | 5.2% | 4.7% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1954 | 4.3% | -0.6% | |
| 1955 | 4.6% | 7.1% | |
| 1956 | 7.2% | 2.1% | |
| 1957 | 8.1% | 2.1% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1958 | 8.0% | -0.7% | |
| 1959 | 7.0% | 6.9% | |
| 1960 | 8.0% | 2.6% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1961 | 6.7% | 2.6% | |
| 1962 | 6.8% | 6.1% | |
| 1963 | 7.1% | 4.4% | |
| 1964 | 6.0% | 5.8% | |
| 1965 | 5.9% | 6.5% | |
| 1966 | 7.3% | 6.6% | |
| 1967 | 6.8% | 2.7% | |
| 1968 | 8.1% | 4.9% | |
| 1969 | 9.7% | 3.1% | |
| 1970 | 11.7% | 0.2% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1971 | 9.3% | 3.3% | |
| 1972 | 8.6% | 5.2% | |
| 1973 | 13.6% | 5.6% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1974 | 19.5% | -0.5% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1975 | 15.1% | -0.2% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1976 | 12.7% | 5.4% | |
| 1977 | 13.1% | 4.6% | |
| 1978 | 15.0% | 5.6% | |
| 1979 | 19.3% | 3.2% | |
| 1980 | 19.7% | -0.2% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1981 | 17.4% | 2.6% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1982 | 14.6% | -1.9% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1983 | 12.1% | 4.6% | |
| 1984 | 11.2% | 7.3% | |
| 1985 | 10.8% | 4.2% | |
| 1986 | 7.7% | 3.5% | |
| 1987 | 10.1% | 3.5% | |
| 1988 | 9.7% | 4.2% | |
| 1989 | 10.0% | 3.7% | |
| 1990 | 12.4% | 1.9% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1991 | 10.4% | -0.1% | Ukubuyisela |
| 1992 | 10.3% | 3.6% | |
| 1993 | 9.2% | 2.7% | |
| 1994 | 8.2% | 4.0% | |
| 1995 | 8.1% | 2.7% | |
| 1996 | 8.7% | 3.8% | |
| 1997 | 6.4% | 4.5% | |
| 1998 | 6.0% | 4.5% | |
| 1999 | 6.7% | 4.7% | |
| 2000 | 7.3% | 4.1% | |
| 2001 | 7.3% | 1.0% | Ukubuyisela |
| 2002 | 8.4% | 1.8% | |
| 2003 | 7.6% | 2.8% | |
| 2004 | 8.7% | 3.8% | |
| 2005 | 8.3% | 3.3% | |
| 2006 | 6.9% | 2.7% | |
| 2007 | 9.1% | 1.8% | |
| 2008 | 7.4% | -0.3% | Ukubuyisela |
| 2009 | 12.6% | -2.8% | Ukubuyisela |
| 2010 | 10.8% | 2.5% | |
| 2011 | 11.5% | 1.6% | |
| 2012 | 9.6% | 2.2% | |
| 2013 | 8.2% | 1.7% | |
| 2014 | 6.4% | 2.6% | |
| 2015 | 5.7% | 2.9% | |
| 2016 | 6.8% | 1.5% | |
| 2017 | 6.2% | n / A |